Phoenix and all other Valley cities need to reopen ASAP! (section 8, buying)

[man4857]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

Just like the virus, we don't know that this is short term and we don't know that we can rebuild in a reasonable amount of time, say less than 10 to 15 years.

For the extreme social distancing measures we're taking right now, all the medical experts have said this is all short term. Once we have the testing capacity up and running, we can start easing which will gradually start the rebuilding/recovery process. This is all mathematically modeled

Expecting a relatively fast recovery is of our own doing due to our fiscal irresponsible behavior. This remains to be seen how "fast" it really will be. I have confidence we will all be fine eventually. Congress will pass additional packages to jump start the recovery process after the brunt of the crisis is over and we start to transition to recovery.

Being scared of the unknown shouldn't deter us from fighting the true enemy. That's what war is all about.

[belgirl]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

Who out here is getting tested? I thought I saw something from the state that showed a majority of those being tested were middle aged to younger (can't seem to find it now).
Are people just going out to get tested? Anyone here done it?

I thought you could only get tested if you had certain symptoms. Of course, for $60 you can get an antibody test at ARCpoint Labs in Scottsdale. I think there is a week waiting list.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

Who out here is getting tested? I thought I saw something from the state that showed a majority of those being tested were middle aged to younger (can't seem to find it now).
Are people just going out to get tested? Anyone here done it?

Not many are getting tested. But we can get a statistical sample to figure out how screwed or not-so-screwed we are. In a timely piece:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/n...s-test-ny.html (in case you cannot see it).

Title: "1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest".

"The results also provided the tantalizing prospect that many New Yorkers who never knew they had been infected — possibly as many as 2.7 million, the governor said — had already encountered the virus, and survived. Mr. Cuomo also suggested the death rate was far lower than believed."


I've been waiting for this data. And it is what I expected. To me at least, this is a HUGE statement. 11,000 deaths/2,700,000*100===0.47%. That is triple the death rate of LA and the Bay are projections. But their hospitals were overrun and the quality of care probably wasn't as good. Still, 1/7th of quoted WHO death rate. in CA, it was 1/25th.

And the fly in the ointment: "The city’s top official for disease control, Dr. Demetre C. Daskalakis, wrote in an email alert on Wednesday that the tests “may produce false negative or false-positive results,” pointing to “significant voids” in using the science to pinpoint immunity."

Still, great news.

Re: testing to see if you have it. Considering a pulmonologist doc customer in the busiest COVID hospital in MN cannot get a test, I think it's safe to assume we will be flying blind for a while.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by man4857

For the extreme social distancing measures we're taking right now, all the medical experts have said this is all short term. Once we have the testing capacity up and running, we can start easing which will gradually start the rebuilding/recovery process. This is all mathematically modeled

Expecting a relatively fast recovery is of our own doing due to our fiscal irresponsible behavior. This remains to be seen how "fast" it really will be. I have confidence we will all be fine eventually. Congress will pass additional packages to jump start the recovery process after the brunt of the crisis is over and we start to transition to recovery.

Being scared of the unknown shouldn't deter us from fighting the true enemy. That's what war is all about.

For many who are falling behind in their rent, car payments and other bills they need to return to work.

They don't give a damn about a mathematically modeled prediction if the Dodge Ram truck they bought two years ago might be repossessed.

Politicians are in the same mode: they are weighing the political cost of opening soon vs. waiting.

But our seniors and the vulnerable... what about them? We all need to do our part.

Hell, many seniors don't give a damn and aren't following the rules.


I think many people have already reached the below tipping point..

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

The data indicate that, in contrast with what many including me had come to believe, we are still on the rising side of the curve and the state models reflect this as well. I think we will go to mid-May with most of the shutdown (and remember, Arizona's semi-shutdown is roughly what other states are doing with re-opening.) At that point, everyone will have had enough and we will all agree that it is best to just let the vulnerable die or fend for themselves.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Not many are getting tested. But we can get a statistical sample to figure out how screwed or not-so-screwed we are. In a timely piece:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/n...s-test-ny.html (in case you cannot see it).

Title: "1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest".

"The results also provided the tantalizing prospect that many New Yorkers who never knew they had been infected — possibly as many as 2.7 million, the governor said — had already encountered the virus, and survived. Mr. Cuomo also suggested the death rate was far lower than believed."


I've been waiting for this data. And it is what I expected. To me at least, this is a HUGE statement. 11,000 deaths/2,700,000*100===0.47%. That is triple the death rate of LA and the Bay are projections. But their hospitals were overrun and the quality of care probably wasn't as good. Still, 1/7th of quoted WHO death rate. in CA, it was 1/25th.

And the fly in the ointment: "The city’s top official for disease control, Dr. Demetre C. Daskalakis, wrote in an email alert on Wednesday that the tests “may produce false negative or false-positive results,” pointing to “significant voids” in using the science to pinpoint immunity."

Still, great news.

Re: testing to see if you have it. Considering a pulmonologist doc customer in the busiest hospital in MN cannot get a test, I think it's safe to assume we will be flying blind for a while.

Good link, thanks. Seems there will be yet another battle between all parties regarding how to move forward while trying to hold the line on caution. The pendulum swings.

[man4857]

Originally Posted by john3232

For many who are falling behind in their rent, car payments and other bills they need to return to work.

They don't give a damn about a mathematically modeled prediction if the Dodge Ram truck they bought two years ago might be repossessed.

Politicians are in the same mode: they are weighing the political cost of opening soon vs. waiting.

But our seniors and the vulnerable... what about them? We all need to do our part.

Hell, many seniors don't give a damn and aren't following the rules.


I think many people have already reached the below tipping point..

Like I said in my earlier post, Congress needs to grow some balls and pass some sort of temporary universal basic income. Enough needed to float everyone through this.

In a perfect world political philosophies won't clash...

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by man4857

For the extreme social distancing measures we're taking right now, all the medical experts have said this is all short term. Once we have the testing capacity up and running, we can start easing which will gradually start the rebuilding/recovery process. This is all mathematically modeled

Expecting a relatively fast recovery is of our own doing due to our fiscal irresponsible behavior. This remains to be seen how "fast" it really will be. I have confidence we will all be fine eventually. Congress will pass additional packages to jump start the recovery process after the brunt of the crisis is over and we start to transition to recovery.

Being scared of the unknown shouldn't deter us from fighting the true enemy. That's what war is all about.

The most mobile members of society today have been models, they have shown an absolute freedom to move anywhere they want to go (numbers that is, not the long legged version).
'Eventually' is not the kind of concept that makes public policy work. "Hey, when are we going to pay off the $50 trillion in debt we've now saddle future generations with?" Eventually. Congress can attempt to jump start as much as they want, but if the heart is gone it's gone, doesn't matter how many times they yell "clear."
This isn't fear mongering, this is reality.

[man4857]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

The most mobile members of society today have been models, they have shown an absolute freedom to move anywhere they want to go (numbers that is, not the long legged version).
'Eventually' is not the kind of concept that makes public policy work. "Hey, when are we going to pay off the $50 trillion in debt we've now saddle future generations with?" Eventually. Congress can attempt to jump start as much as they want, but if the heart is gone it's gone, doesn't matter how many times they yell "clear."
This isn't fear mongering, this is reality.

That would be an unrealistic expectation. The economy will recover when people feel confident to spend. When will you feel comfortable to spend? Not just you but a majority of consumers in the country. Congress won't know. They will do what they can to instill confidence. But they cannot put a definite timeline on saying when that'll happen. That's up to you and holding their feet to the fire over that wouldn't be fair.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by man4857

Like I said in my earlier post, Congress needs to grow some balls and pass some sort of temporary universal basic income. Enough needed to float everyone through this.

In a perfect world political philosophies won't clash...

Temporary. How long is that? Tim Ryan wants to give $2000 to everyone making less than $130k, until we reach the unemployment rates at the start of this (near or at the lowest ever). And he wants to give it to everyone 16 yrs of age and up. Brilliant. That will be a temporary fix that will become permanent.

[man4857]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

Temporary. How long is that? Tim Ryan wants to give $2000 to everyone making less than $130k, until we reach the unemployment rates at the start of this (near or at the lowest ever). And he wants to give it to everyone 16 yrs of age and up. Brilliant. That will be a temporary fix that will become permanent.

Sure that's a start. It's a start. To instill more confidence, I would suggest even $3000-4000/mo. A start would be 6 months with an extension by another 6 months. Giving people more money than they need acts as an economic stimulus for when the economy does start opening.

Well without getting too much into the philosophical argument - UBI as a concept will reduce huge administrative workloads already exists in the current social safety net systems. So it could be made permanent - while removing other programs (SNAP/UI/etc. the means tested programs) and replacing it with a straight check and the dollar amount could be lowered/raised during times of boom and bust. There's a practical benefit for doing this.

For people who gets money they don't need - in terms of income, the IRS could tax it back and vice versa.