Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
We're also finding out that mutations of the COVID-19 virus are getting less resistant to the human body's natural anti-bodies and/or our own immune system has adapted and built up stronger resistance to this virus, so if you're healthy, you got nothing to worry about even if you get infected with it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Magnum Mike
I should add that those who were infected with the COVID-19 and recovered have stronger anti-bodies, that's why a lot of facilities that accept blood donations are encouraging such people to donate.
What studies conclude that antibodies provide any level of immunity and that mutations are becoming weaker to immune responses? This sounds like wishful thinking and I'm with you there, but I haven't seen anything that provides the level of certainty that you're claiming. Please cite your sources.
Otherwise healthy, young people have died from this. In fact, some have had immune responses that were too strong that went into overdrive, killing them from their own overreacting immune system.
Phoenix and all other Valley cities need to reopen ASAP!
I realize that I'm about a month late in responding to this but I agree, all cities in Maricopa County should have reopened around the middle of April. Before you condemn me in saying that I put economics before lives I'll just say this, no I'm not and important protocols have to take place before reopening and that is for businesses such as dining establishments to require employees and customers to wear masks.
How are customers supposed to wear masks in a restaurant?
I can tolerate masks on servers as a temporary means of getting out of this hole, even though they interfere with communication and kill the vibe of a restaurant, but eating and drinking with a mask is simply not possible.
Going over your finances is a reality check ^^. You can be altruistic all you want until the economic reality comes into plain view. I'm going to make an easy prediction and this is going to be much worse than the guy on the street or Joe 6 pack predicts. There are a lot of people who think this will be a v-shaped curve recovery. Forgetting the definition, people trust the President who says "we will have a rapid recovery". Not so fast. It's becoming abundantly clear to me that people won't be out and about when the doors are open. And that's the reality for a while until people feel safer from blood clots or infecting their vulnerable loved-ones or, or, or.... And we are talking about months from now so the deep bleeding will continue.
I found it interesting that the optimistic Warren Buffet talked with the NYT's and discussed the economy. In it, he said, “Our position will be to stay a Fort Knox”. Meaning, he didn't buy any companies when the market tanked. Rather, he sold his massive stake in the airlines plus some bank stocks. And the telling line was when he said that his $137 billion that he had on hand “isn’t all that huge when you think about worst-case possibilities.”
He understands we are playing with fire. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/b...-hathaway.html . Personally, I feel a storm coming. I am starting to see some of the foundation cracking.
It feels like the calm before the storm. Plenty of companies are hanging on by their nails and more are coming as they are burning there reserves. The weather report might be: Sunny, with a chance of armageddon. The end result will be that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. People may want to start acting like the rich and don't p_ss away everything thinking that "everything will be o.k.". If you are in 68% of the population with under $500 in an emergency fund, you might not want to "take advantage' of those 84 months: 0% interest new auto loans but dumb people are. Or spend your $1200 versus putting it in savings. Just since March, people with credit card debt has increased and this is just the beginning https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/almo...ore-of-it.html . So 47% of Americans now carry credit card debt. As I said, a storm is brewing... The only question is how bad will it be?
I had a picture (but lost it) of a house with an intact facade described as the stock market while behind it stood just a basic frame described as the economy. That's today's world.
We've heard a lot about supply chains and how they've been "disrupted." Well every 'chain' from food to taxes is now, not only disrupted, but many are destroyed.
Going over your finances is a reality check ^^. You can be altruistic all you want until the economic reality comes into plain view. I'm going to make an easy prediction and this is going to be much worse than the guy on the street or Joe 6 pack predicts. There are a lot of people who think this will be a v-shaped curve recovery. Forgetting the definition, people trust the President who says "we will have a rapid recovery". Not so fast. It's becoming abundantly clear to me that people won't be out and about when the doors are open. And that's the reality for a while until people feel safer from blood clots or infecting their vulnerable loved-ones or, or, or.... And we are talking about months from now so the deep bleeding will continue.
Yes, it will very likely be a long term recovery ... much like (or possibly worse than) the last big downturn 10+ years ago. I don't fully agree with Trump, largely because he's inconsistent ... but then again, he's really no different than any other politician. We can't expect a quick bounce back after numerous businesses have been forced to close (some permanently), and especially after our government has added trillions in more debt on top of the existing burdening debt. As I said from the beginning, I'm much more concerned about the potential long term economic fallout than I am about the virus itself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised
I found it interesting that the optimistic Warren Buffet talked with the NYT's and discussed the economy. In it, he said, “Our position will be to stay a Fort Knox”. Meaning, he didn't buy any companies when the market tanked. Rather, he sold his massive stake in the airlines plus some bank stocks. And the telling line was when he said that his $137 billion that he had on hand “isn’t all that huge when you think about worst-case possibilities.”
Buffet is a market master, but many others aren't so savvy with investments (even many well known business professionals and market analysts). The interesting thing is that the market hasn't tanked as much as some people predicted due to some sectors are doing quite well. The price of AMZN is at its highest ever, and obviously it's because of the increased demand for online buying. Even AAPL, despite its recent drop, has bounced back quite nicely in the last few weeks ... again largely due to active users continue to increase. Also, the fact that a large Canadian bank recently bought into AAPL doesn't hurt.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised
Personally, I feel a storm coming. I am starting to see some of the foundation cracking. It feels like the calm before the storm. Plenty of companies are hanging on by their nails and more are coming as they are burning there reserves. The weather report might be: Sunny, with a chance of armageddon. The end result will be that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. People may want to start acting like the rich and don't p_ss away everything thinking that "everything will be o.k.". If you are in 68% of the population with under $500 in an emergency fund, you might not want to "take advantage' of those 84 months: 0% interest new auto loans but dumb people are. Or spend your $1200 versus putting it in savings. Just since March, people with credit card debt has increased and this is just the beginning https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/almo...ore-of-it.html . So 47% of Americans now carry credit card debt. As I said, a storm is brewing... The only question is how bad will it be?
Even after the threat of the virus begins to decrease, the long term economic impacts are likely going to be ugly. I hate to sound like a doom & gloom type, but much of the blame can be put on the governing bodies who implemented these draconian restrictions. The number of people impacted by the loss of business far outweighs the number of people affected directly by the virus. Running up more debt (be it on a personal or governmental level) seems to be the trend, but it's definitely not a viable solution. It has to be paid back, but the interest alone is a killer, even with rates being next to nothing. Our society has a high spending rate, but a low savings rate, which is a huge problem.
There have been around 15K antibody tests done in Arizona now. Only 3.7% of them have been positive. Not knowing whether this is a representative sample or not makes it hard to draw a firm number, but the suggestion of the data is that 96% of the population is still not exposed and is susceptible to corona. This pandemic is truly in the earliest stages.
There have been around 15K antibody tests done in Arizona now. Only 3.7% of them have been positive. Not knowing whether this is a representative sample or not makes it hard to draw a firm number, but the suggestion of the data is that 96% of the population is still not exposed and is susceptible to corona. This pandemic is truly in the earliest stages.
3.7% is still a very small figure compared to the number of people forced out of work (over 15%), the number of businesses that closed (nearly 40%), and the number of businesses that have lost revenue from these shutdowns (nearly 60%). Plus, the number of Americans who have seen their basic freedoms trampled on (nearly 100%). I suppose it's perfectly fine if you like being isolated, and don't mind living under a socialistic dictatorship type of rule ... however, this is not what America is all about, and it's not the kind of America that the majority of Americans will tolerate for very long.
There have been around 15K antibody tests done in Arizona now. Only 3.7% of them have been positive. Not knowing whether this is a representative sample or not makes it hard to draw a firm number, but the suggestion of the data is that 96% of the population is still not exposed and is susceptible to corona. This pandemic is truly in the earliest stages.
As I said from the beginning, I'm much more concerned about the potential long term economic fallout than I am about the virus itself.
The reality is that no one knew what to expect from the virus. In short, you were guessing and that is a sign of someone not informed even if someone guessed correctly (and the jury still isn't out on the end health impact of this virus). It took about 6 weeks before anybody could patch together enough information to figure out what was going on. Some inkles were given earlier that needed supporting data. Even then, it wasn't crystal clear. After all, it's why the WORLD shut down in various forms. And initially for good reasons (the unknown).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valley Native
Even after the threat of the virus begins to decrease, the long term economic impacts are likely going to be ugly. I hate to sound like a doom & gloom type, but much of the blame can be put on the governing bodies who implemented these draconian restrictions. The number of people impacted by the loss of business far outweighs the number of people affected directly by the virus. Running up more debt (be it on a personal or governmental level) seems to be the trend, but it's definitely not a viable solution. It has to be paid back, but the interest alone is a killer, even with rates being next to nothing. Our society has a high spending rate, but a low savings rate, which is a huge problem.
The world economy could adapt 6-8 weeks with this severe shutdown. Yea, add on another few TRILLION to the US debt. But it didn't have to be that way. Nor did TARP or the bank bailout have to happen last round either.
All that said, if we all came out of our caves and went back to "normal", it probably would be a "v" shaped recovery. But that's not going to be the case. In my view, it's going to get much uglier because people (not the government) will stay away from how they economically behaved before. Speaking for myself, I'm not. I pushed out my international travel, I am going to eat in a few hundred more times a year at home, I'm going to watch movies exclusively at home, I will order in my groceries (I love the convenience), I will exercise at home, etc. And some of these are life changes. So paradigm shifts are well on their way even if the virus went away forever. So expect the commercial real estate that houses employees to shrink, more brick and mortar retail to close in favor of home deliveries etc etc.
Or putting it another way, without forced government social distancing, people were going to self isolate automatically. It certainly has forced a certain percentage of people who wanted to go out to stay inside. Once things "open up" by the governments, let's see how things go back to normal. It won't and that was my point of why point why I see this not ending well.
Last edited by MN-Born-n-Raised; 05-08-2020 at 05:18 AM..
All that said, if we all came out of our caves and went back to "normal", it probably would be a "v" shaped recovery. But that's not going to be the case. In my view, it's going to get much uglier because people (not the government) will stay away from how they economically behaved before. Speaking for myself, I'm not. I pushed out my international travel, I am going to eat in a few hundred more times a year at home, I'm going to watch movies exclusively at home, I will order in my groceries (I love the convenience), I will exercise at home, etc. And some of these are life changes. So paradigm shifts are well on their way even if the virus went away forever.
I'm sure a lot of business owners cannot see past the next month, which is admittedly understandable. But here is the reality... until the virus is at least somewhat contained, a large segment of the population is not going to take any unnecessary risks. If we don't see some improvement by the end of the year, Phoenix metro is in for a lot of pain. How many will travel here for the pro golf tournament, Barrett-Jackson, Spring Training baseball?? There are many well-off people in their 60s and 70s who come here and spend tons of money in the spring.
It's really disappointing that people cannot stop their political bickering and grandstanding for even a few weeks, to try and knock this thing down. Every time I go out I see people essentially thumbing their noses at the guidelines. So now we've pissed away April, IMO because of people who are still on the "hoax" bandwagon. The daily count of new cases is up about 50% since Ducey's EO went into effect.
I'm sure a lot of business owners cannot see past the next month, which is admittedly understandable. But here is the reality... until the virus is at least somewhat contained, a large segment of the population is not going to take any unnecessary risks. If we don't see some improvement by the end of the year, Phoenix metro is in for a lot of pain. How many will travel here for the pro golf tournament, Barrett-Jackson, Spring Training baseball?? There are many well-off people in their 60s and 70s who come here and spend tons of money in the spring.
It's really disappointing that people cannot stop their political bickering and grandstanding for even a few weeks, to try and knock this thing down. Every time I go out I see people essentially thumbing their noses at the guidelines. So now we've pissed away April, IMO because of people who are still on the "hoax" bandwagon. The daily count of new cases is up about 50% since Ducey's EO went into effect.
The death toll is going up exponentially in Arizona. We are quickly rising through the ranks of the worst affected states outside of the east coast.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
If you are in 68% of the population with under $500 in an emergency fund, you might not want to "take advantage' of those 84 months: 0% interest new auto loans but dumb people are. Or spend your $1200 versus putting it in savings. Just since March, people with credit card debt has increased and this is just the beginning 
But it didn't have to be that way.
