Where is Scottsdale will hold its value best?

[hikernut]

One question to ask... where is the demand coming from? I was here ~15 years ago when the market was going up quickly. I did not own a house, nor was I in the market for a house at that time (thankfully). There were reports of speculators buying properties, often sight unseen, in order to cash in on the boom. I haven't heard that this is happening, yet anyway.

Assuming people are moving here from out-of-state to WFH, retire, work locally... the question will be whether most of them end up staying for the long term.

[fluffythewondercat]

Originally Posted by Sno0909

I would agree. I don't see prices going too much further north, but I also don't see any type of bubble whatsoever. I think this is just the new normal around here. Which is why I questioned the OPs use of the word inflated.

"Inflated" is just another word for sticker shock.

As in, "I really want to live in Paradise Valley, but have you seen the prices? They're SO inflated!"

[jayboz]

Hikernut - pretty sure you and others have it right about WFH likely driving much of the demand. Big employment centers like NYC, Chicago, LA & SF are seeing an exodus. My guess is people who were never really city people to begin with, but lived there because of work are simply jumping at the chance to get out while their companies are permitting it. They look to areas where housing is more affordable and where there is an abundance of other activities they enjoy.

But there is another factor that puts Arizona in the cross-hairs right now. There are lots of people like myself who were approaching retirement, but COVID kind of moved those plans into high-gear. Lots of companies doing forced downsizing or offering nice early-exit packages. Where you have normal distribution of people retiring in any given year, this year (and likely to continue into 2021) is seeing a ton of people retiring earlier than they would have otherwise planned. My original retirement date was 2022, but COVID decided otherwise. Multiply that by a few million others like me, and the fact that AZ has historically been a big retirement draw, and boom...excess demand. Gut says 2022 will probably see far fewer people retiring than 2020 & 2021 simply because the 2022 crowd left early. Could that cause AZ real estate prices to take a hit in a year or two? Lower demand has a way of doing that, so it's a distinct possibility.

[smoochaz]

Market is very hot and still predicted to be even hotter next year - so can still get in - you'll hear the common theme amongst the new home builders-they can't build them fast enough! Many companies coming in and there is a house "shortage". I have a presentation somewhere that discusses the hot areas in the Valley - >4x sales then listings etc. as well as planned developments mostly in SE and NW regions. The Ritz Carlton Residences too in Paradise Valley will be something to watch!

If you're looking for retirement places - there are some really nice master planned communities in Rio Verde, or even Gold Canyon (DR Horton just bought 270acres by Superstition that's going to be something to watch too) Encanterra, Vistancia, Pebble Creek arghh ... overwhelming! seems to be anywhere you buy has growth potential-