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Old 03-25-2021, 09:57 AM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
26,810 posts, read 11,015,498 times
Reputation: 8974

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Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised View Post
Google "conformational bias" because that's what's what is going on. Much smarter people disagree and are betting billions of dollars. Meanwhile, I am going to start a video rental business. Wish me luck!
Again, you are looking from the tech companies POV rather than the actual industry POV

The only talk that I've heard is that automated trucks will strictly be used for long haul, and that more local jobs will be created for actual humans. Similar to what JB Hunt has done in the last 20 years. They pretty much have no long distance drivers anymore, but more drivers overall, as they invested in intermodal big time. So they have guys go to the rail yards in day cabs and pick up the containers and take them where they're going locally, and they still pay good, $70k&up in most major cities

And they are now the most profitable carrier, despite not having the biggest fleet

Last edited by FirebirdCamaro1220; 03-25-2021 at 10:05 AM..
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Old 03-25-2021, 10:00 AM
 
Location: az
5,662 posts, read 3,507,658 times
Reputation: 4548
Quote:
Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220 View Post
10 years lol, shows what you guys know about my industry. They can't even perfect the self driving cars yet, let alone trucks

I would only agree that I wouldn't advise anyone younger than about 35 to get in this industry at this point. Other than that, I disagree

Well, it's your livelihood. Hope you are right.
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Old 03-25-2021, 10:04 AM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
26,810 posts, read 11,015,498 times
Reputation: 8974
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
Well, it's your livelihood. Hope you are right.
Read post #92, second paragraph
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Old 03-25-2021, 10:16 AM
Status: "Free Man" (set 28 days ago)
 
Location: Gilbert, AZ
1,153 posts, read 638,050 times
Reputation: 2175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prickly Pear View Post

What is the requirement for such a program? Good credit history?


I truly encourage you to look into this and speak with a mortgage lender. I can recommend a couple good ones if you'd like. You have to start the process and even if it's not entirely possible right now, they will tell you exactly what you need to do.

https://homeplusaz.com/
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Old 03-25-2021, 10:31 AM
 
7,339 posts, read 8,741,596 times
Reputation: 6644
Quote:
Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220 View Post
Again, you are looking from the tech companies POV rather than the actual industry POV

The only talk that I've heard is that automated trucks will strictly be used for long haul, and that more local jobs will be created for actual humans. Similar to what JB Hunt has done in the last 20 years. They pretty much have no long distance drivers anymore, but more drivers overall, as they invested in intermodal big time. So they have guys go to the rail yards in day cabs and pick up the containers and take them where they're going locally, and they still pay good, $70k&up in most major cities

And they are now the most profitable carrier, despite not having the biggest fleet
Yea, you are right.
1. Technology takes decades to develop.
2. People who invest billions in autonomous trucks are not smart enough to figure out your industry like you can.
3. When people are driving shotgun (basically to micromanage the vehicle on autopilot and help load and unload), their wages will go UP.

Conformational bias is at work. You don't have ANYTHING to worry about. Because we all know the brightest, and most innovativeive minds are in the freight industry (still locked in the year 2000 technology-wise).

My popcorn is popped. I'm putting my money on autonomous trucks completely disrupting your entire industry. Kidding aside, do you hear what you are saying? I mean, what can go wrong?
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Old 03-25-2021, 10:40 AM
Status: "Free Man" (set 28 days ago)
 
Location: Gilbert, AZ
1,153 posts, read 638,050 times
Reputation: 2175
Quote:
Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220 View Post
Why would I start a business in an industry that I have no experience or connections in?
I am literally starting a business right now that I have absolutely zero experience in. I'm doing my research and talking to people who are smarter than me. I know it's a good industry to get into, so I figure start now regardless of my knowledge and pick up things as I go.
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Old 03-25-2021, 10:41 AM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
26,810 posts, read 11,015,498 times
Reputation: 8974
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised View Post
Yea, you are right.
1. Technology takes decades to develop.
2. People who invest billions in autonomous trucks are not smart enough to figure out your industry like you can.
3. When people are driving shotgun (basically to micromanage the vehicle on autopilot and help load and unload), their wages will go UP.

Conformational bias is at work. You don't have ANYTHING to worry about. Because we all know the brightest, and most innovativeive minds are in the freight industry (still locked in the year 2000 technology-wise).

My popcorn is popped. I'm putting my money on autonomous trucks completely disrupting your entire industry. Kidding aside, do you hear what you are saying? I mean, what can go wrong?
Let's see an autonomous truck in the next few decades fuel itself (no, electric is nowhere near viable for semis yet, due to power, distance and recharge time requirements); back into a loading dock itself (van), hook up to a pipe itself (tanker), load or unload itself, negotiate big city traffic including emergency situations etc etc

So yes, I do know what I'm talking about. You are really being an elitist
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Old 03-25-2021, 10:42 AM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
26,810 posts, read 11,015,498 times
Reputation: 8974
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sno0909 View Post
I am literally starting a business right now that I have absolutely zero experience in. I'm doing my research and talking to people who are smarter than me. I know it's a good industry to get into, so I figure start now regardless of my knowledge and pick up things as I go.
Well good for you, you are less weary of risk. Why would I give up a sure thing now that is more than paying my bills, to start from scratch in something that I will fail in just looking at the actuary tables?
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Old 03-25-2021, 10:47 AM
Status: "Free Man" (set 28 days ago)
 
Location: Gilbert, AZ
1,153 posts, read 638,050 times
Reputation: 2175
Quote:
Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220 View Post
Well good for you, you are less weary of risk. Why would I give up a sure thing now that is more than paying my bills, to start from scratch in something that I will fail in just looking at the actuary tables?
I'm not giving up anything. I make time. I also have three kids and multiple business interests, in addition to my real estate. I work late at night. Maybe don't binge the next episode on Netflix. It just all depends on how badly you want something. I don't want to complain about lemons that life has given me. I want to crush them. But I also realize most people aren't built this way (hence the 9% analogy that's been tossed around this thread).
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Old 03-25-2021, 10:55 AM
 
7,339 posts, read 8,741,596 times
Reputation: 6644
Quote:
Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220 View Post
Let's see an autonomous truck in the next few decades fuel itself (no, electric is nowhere near viable for semis yet, due to power, distance and recharge time requirements); back into a loading dock itself (van), hook up to a pipe itself (tanker), load or unload itself, negotiate big city traffic including emergency situations etc etc

So yes, I do know what I'm talking about. You are really being an elitist
You need to follow along and read my typed words. I SAID 1st to go is long hauling. And those displaced jobs will attack your wages. Hence your INDUSTRY (trucking) will be disrupted. That is a 1000% guarantee. If AI displaces a radiologist or a courier, that guy is going to chase another related discipline and there will be more competition (and lower wages). Eventually, there won't be XM commercials BEGGING for long haulers because they will be displaced. I'm not in that industry. But I don't have to be. I'm not in the video rental business either. But I understand when streaming came to town, they were screwed!

As far as backing up, etc. Yea, they won't be able to train a lower-cost worker for the minimum wage to hook up a pipe, connect the power to a truck, and have cheaper staff riding shot gun until the software gets better. They cannot hire a "master backer upper" at lower wages at larger hubs. lol No, autonomous trucks won't take over completely. Just decimate wages and they crush that long-hauler job.

I'm not being elitist. It may sound that way because it is OBVIOUS what is going to happen and you simply are in denial. I don't have any skin in the game. Have at it!

Now if you said, that your gut is telling you it's going to be a LONG time until autonomous trucks are commonplace. And you hope it doesn't impact your industry, that's fair. But an elitist might say, "We in freight no better than tech." Now that is elitist thinking you are smarter than some of the most brilliant minds walking the planet. So forgive me when I chuckle. Tech is increasing exponentially. Never underestimate the power of AI. There are a lot of people who are going to have their job displaced well before they retire. It is obvious. To me anyways....

Last edited by MN-Born-n-Raised; 03-25-2021 at 11:14 AM..
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