This housing market is unsustainable. Why? And when will things cool down again? (Phoenix: lease, buying a home)

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

You need to follow along and read my typed words. I SAID 1st to go is long hauling. And those displaced jobs will attack your wages. Hence your INDUSTRY (trucking) will be disrupted. That is a 1000% guarantee. If AI displaces a radiologist or a courier, that guy is going to chase another related discipline and there will be more competition (and lower wages). Eventually, there won't be XM commercials BEGGING for long haulers because they will be displaced. I'm not in that industry. But I don't have to be. I'm not in the video rental business either. But I understand when streaming came to town, they were screwed!

As far as backing up, etc. Yea, they won't be able to train a lower-cost worker for the minimum wage to hook up a pipe, connect the power to a truck, and have cheaper staff riding shot gun until the software gets better. They cannot hire a "master backer upper" at lower wages at larger hubs. lol No, autonomous trucks won't take over completely. Just decimate wages and they crush that long-hauler job.

I'm not being elitist. It may sound that way because it is OBVIOUS what is going to happen and you simply are in denial. I don't have any skin in the game. Have at it!

Have you been to the average yard in a major city? Getting in and hooking up a semi IS a skill on it's own. There are places (for vans&reefers) where there are guys who only do that all day, and they are paid WAY above minimum wage. They are called yard goats/switchers. And in Phoenix, most of them make between $18 and $30 per hour depending on which company they work for.

If it was so simple, let's see you hop in my truck and get into the tight Cemex plant that I'm at in Perris right now......

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220

Have you been to the average yard in a major city? Getting in and hooking up a semi IS a skill on it's own.

Yes. I pick-up and drop off freight all the time. Of course, hooking up a semi is a skill. But technology (new designs to interface autonomous vehicles) will minimize that skill. Or do we all have to wait 30 years? Boy, you and your industry are locked in legacy technologies. It's really time for tech to shake-up your archaic industry!
Re: switchers. Eventually, since some of those over-the-road truck drivers will be FIGHTING for those jobs, Wages will go down. Because they will have people lined outside their door applying for them. Meanwhile, new hook-up techniques will be developed to automate over the years. Or do you think that cannot happen?

Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220

If it was so simple, let's see you hop in my truck and get into the tight Cemex plant that I'm at in Perris right now......

I know a lot of people who cannot back up a boat or trailer. So obviously a semi is many times more difficult. All I can say is AI is going to win. But to reiterate (4th time now), I'm talking about long haulers eroding your wages. That's step # 1. Give it 10 years and remember this conversation.

At this point, we need to agree to disagree. I'm betting on the Stanford and MIT grads (not people in the archaic trucking industry).

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Yes. I pick-up and drop off freight all the time. Of course, hooking up a semi is a skill. But technology (new designs to interface autonomous vehicles) will minimize that skill. Or do we all have to wait 30 years? Boy, you and your industry are locked in legacy technologies. It's really time for tech to shake-up your archaic industry!
Re: switchers. Eventually, since some of those over-the-road truck drivers will be FIGHTING for those jobs, Wages will go down. Because they will have people lined outside their door applying for them. Meanwhile, new hook-up techniques will be developed to automate over the years. Or do you think that cannot happen?



I know a lot of people who cannot back up a boat or trailer. So obviously a semi is many times more difficult. All I can say is AI is going to win. But to reiterate (4th time now), I'm talking about long haulers eroding your wages. That's step # 1. Give it 10 years and remember this conversation.

At this point, we need to agree to disagree. I'm betting on the Stanford and MIT grads.

They're looking for a solution to something that ISN'T a problem, unless the goal of these people is to make as many people as possible unemployed and homeless

[hikernut]

It takes a long time for a transformational technology to get rolled out into general use at scale.

Amazon was founded in 1994. Now 27 years later they are finally getting close to generating more revenue than Wal-Mart (which is still growing despite the added competition).

Personal computers became commonly used in business during the 1980s, but the dream of the paperless office took 20+ years to realize. And this problem is trivial in comparison to creating a nationwide fleet of AVs!

Sure, it will happen, but not in 5-10 years (IMO).

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220

They're looking for a solution to something that ISN'T a problem, unless the goal of these people is to make as many people as possible unemployed and homeless

The goal is to increase efficiency (time and money). If that means people lose their jobs, then that's what will happen. In the meantime, it will create other types of jobs. I bet you don't stay awake at night when people starve around the world. Well, most people will sleep like a baby if you starve. It's a dog-eat-dog world. That's the unfortunate reality. And China has a big lead and they intend on winning. I digress.

Originally Posted by hikernut

It takes a long time for a transformational technology to get rolled out into general use at scale.
Sure, it will happen, but not in 5-10 years (IMO).

Great examples of building up entirely new technologies and infrastructures ^^. As I posted, there is exponential growth with AI. It's debated here https://medium.com/@reevesastronomy/...l-8e18f126d2cb . Paradigm shifts are taking less and less time to properly execute.

Are you saying you long haulers won't be significantly impacted in 10 years by autonomous trucks? If your point is Ubers won't be driving in downtown Boston in 10 years from now, we agree. I suspect we are 10-15 years out from some dramatic changes in how we drive. Certainly not in 5 years.

As I said, my popcorn is popped. It's going to get really interesting...

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

The goal is to increase efficiency (time and money). If that means people lose their jobs, then that's what will happen. In the meantime, it will create other types of jobs. I bet you don't stay awake at night when people starve around the world. Well, most people will sleep like a baby if you starve. It's a dog-eat-dog world. That's the unfortunate reality. And China has a big lead and they intend on winning. I digress.



Great examples of building up entirely new technologies and infrastructures ^^. As I posted, there is exponential growth with AI. It's debated here https://medium.com/@reevesastronomy/...l-8e18f126d2cb . Paradigm shifts are taking less and less time to properly execute.

Are you saying you long haulers won't be significantly impacted in 10 years by autonomous trucks? If your point is Ubers won't be driving in downtown Boston in 10 years from now, we agree. I suspect we are 10-15 years out from some dramatic changes in how we drive. Certainly not in 5 years.

As I said, my popcorn is popped. It's going to get really interesting...

What, working for Google or Facebook, or making robots?

Even then if your dream here becomes a reality, most will not be able to fill these magical "new jobs", due to mainly lacking intelligence and/or skills mismatch.

And yes, I do care about unemployment and homelessness, maybe you don't in your ivory tower

[Sno0909]

Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220

They're looking for a solution to something that ISN'T a problem, unless the goal of these people is to make as many people as possible unemployed and homeless

That's what tech companies often do. It really wasn't a problem to go to the store and buy a book in the late 90's. Amazon found a better way to do something by selling books online. Just because it's not a "problem" doesn't mean there isn't a better and more efficient way.

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Are you saying you long haulers won't be significantly impacted in 10 years by autonomous trucks? If your point is Ubers won't be driving in downtown Boston in 10 years from now, we agree. I suspect we are 10-15 years out from some dramatic changes in how we drive. Certainly not in 5 years.

As I said, my popcorn is popped. It's going to get really interesting...

I agree it will be interesting to see how it all gets rolled out. But one doesn't flip a switch and all of a sudden everything changes to AV. Trucking companies aren't looking only at operating costs. They have large capital investments in rigs already, and it will take massive investment in new fleets to transform to AV. This just won't happen in a few years' time. I expect it will take more than ten years for AV long-haul rigs to outnumber human-driven rigs... probably more like 20 years(?). Just my guess.

In the time it takes for this transformation to occur, other things are in play. First, millions of long haulers in their 50s and 60s will be retiring. And secondly, the economy will be growing and adding demand for more movement of freight. If I were a truck driver in my 40s today, and I liked my job, I certainly would not be in panic mode.

[timothyaw]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Yea, you are right.
1. Technology takes decades to develop.
2. People who invest billions in autonomous trucks are not smart enough to figure out your industry like you can.
3. When people are driving shotgun (basically to micromanage the vehicle on autopilot and help load and unload), their wages will go UP.

Conformational bias is at work. You don't have ANYTHING to worry about. Because we all know the brightest, and most innovativeive minds are in the freight industry (still locked in the year 2000 technology-wise).

My popcorn is popped. I'm putting my money on autonomous trucks completely disrupting your entire industry. Kidding aside, do you hear what you are saying? I mean, what can go wrong?

Back in the horse and buggy age, the people that built and serviced those scoffed at that new automobile thing. They were like that's a folly it'll never take over the horse and buggy. It's been the same thing over and over through the ages.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by timothyaw

Back in the horse and buggy age, the people that built and serviced those scoffed at that new automobile thing. They were like that's a folly it'll never take over the horse and buggy. It's been the same thing over and over through the ages.

Correct. I gave up. I need to remind myself of the bell shape curve. Some people just won't get it.