Please suggest Phoenix suburbs low HOA good communities (Chandler: living, best)

[Prickly Pear]

Originally Posted by Alandros

Might be the best plan.

I will add that though no one knows what will happen (ever), it's really not clear the current market is a bubble. Again no one knows for sure what will happen, but the current situation is very different than the 2008/2009 bubble. A simple graph to illustrate this can be found here, I posted the image below as well.
https://arizonarealestatenotebook.co...glance-charts/




The key parts to look at is the red line is the current inventory for sale on the market and the green line is the median home price.

Seeing the data like this you can see clearly why 2008 was a bubble. Home prices shot up while inventory was still rising. So it was the perception of home value that went up, despite the sales not really matching that. You can even see sales went down between 2005-2008 while prices went up and the inventory bulked up.

So the high home values were NOT based on a limited supply. Hence a bubble.

As you can see now it's a very different situation. Inventory is ridiculously low, even lower than the lowest point on this chart now I believe. That has causes prices to shoot up due to a real demand that greatly exceed the supply.

This means the values shooting up are genuinely based on a demand based on limited supply. Keep in mind this is with tons of growth in the area since 2008 overall and tons of growth right now. So the demand is even higher than it was back then and yet there are so few homes for sale.

So this is why lots of professionals are saying this very well might not be a bubble. It's not clear the market will actually lower at all, or much if ever (outside of a massive recession or something).

It also suggests even if the market starts to stabilize, as in purchases going down (such as higher rates driving purchasing down), it will take quite a while before there's enough inventory to have a balanced market.

So who knows, but I wouldn't hold my breath that the market is going to naturally lower. Prices in Phoenix are still far lower than much of California (even with a bit of a drop recently in California), which serves as an example of how high prices can rise to if you have enough desirability and demand and supply that can't keep up with that.

If anything we look like 2005.

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by al-capone

With air bnb 3 months we can live in big houses in the most upscale places and prolly cost $6k per year for 3 months. Thanks

That seems very low. Can you post an example?

[stub303]

Originally Posted by hikernut

That seems very low. Can you post an example?

Agreed - A furnished Airbnb home in Scottsdale for a month will most likely be in 3.5K-6K+ range per month.

[Thomasaz]

250K? Good luck finding anything like that in those cities. Maybe in Goodyear or Litchfield Park. Small, cramped townhouses go for around $100K more than your budget in Chandler alone.

[al-capone]

Originally Posted by Thomasaz

250K? Good luck finding anything like that in those cities. Maybe in Goodyear or Litchfield Park. Small, cramped townhouses go for around $100K more than your budget in Chandler alone.

Ya. Now after research I realize something decent will be $350k atleast

[al-capone]

Originally Posted by stub303

Agreed - A furnished Airbnb home in Scottsdale for a month will most likely be in 3.5K-6K+ range per month.

Agree not possible if you book last minute. Good deal is not easy but you have the whole year to plan / watch and book for snow birding Jan to march. Even if I paid say $3.5 k per month as you said Iam at $10.5k for 3 months per year. About $100k burned in 10 years. (covid taught us how things can change in just one year) In return.. no maintenance, no locked into paying mortgage/maintenance/hoa when not using house or hassle of putting it on Air b n b/ renting out in the scorching summer months. Even better you get to stay different southern states every winter (Atlanta, Naples FL..). You get the point.

[al-capone]

Originally Posted by Alandros

Might be the best plan.

I will add that though no one knows what will happen (ever), it's really not clear the current market is a bubble. Again no one knows for sure what will happen, but the current situation is very different than the 2008/2009 bubble. A simple graph to illustrate this can be found here, I posted the image below as well.
https://arizonarealestatenotebook.co...glance-charts/




The key parts to look at is the red line is the current inventory for sale on the market and the green line is the median home price.

Seeing the data like this you can see clearly why 2008 was a bubble. Home prices shot up while inventory was still rising. So it was the perception of home value that went up, despite the sales not really matching that. You can even see sales went down between 2005-2008 while prices went up and the inventory bulked up.

So the high home values were NOT based on a limited supply. Hence a bubble.

As you can see now it's a very different situation. Inventory is ridiculously low, even lower than the lowest point on this chart now I believe. That has causes prices to shoot up due to a real demand that greatly exceed the supply.

This means the values shooting up are genuinely based on a demand based on limited supply. Keep in mind this is with tons of growth in the area since 2008 overall and tons of growth right now. So the demand is even higher than it was back then and yet there are so few homes for sale.

So this is why lots of professionals are saying this very well might not be a bubble. It's not clear the market will actually lower at all, or much if ever (outside of a massive recession or something).

It also suggests even if the market starts to stabilize, as in purchases going down (such as higher rates driving purchasing down), it will take quite a while before there's enough inventory to have a balanced market.

So who knows, but I wouldn't hold my breath that the market is going to naturally lower. Prices in Phoenix are still far lower than much of California (even with a bit of a drop recently in California), which serves as an example of how high prices can rise to if you have enough desirability and demand and supply that can't keep up with that.

Like your detailed analysis and in theory you are correct...but
If covid senior deaths continue lot of those 55+ homes are going to come to the market. already a large number and will take maybe one year to correct assuming covid deaths stop. Proposition 208 is driving lot of business out of AZ. Things like these skew the stats.. No one knows. All a gamble.

[stub303]

Originally Posted by al-capone

Agree not possible if you book last minute.

Not trying to argue here, but this is not realistic. December - May are prime months for monthly furnished rentals. You can plan as far ahead as you want, but you will not find a big house in an upscale area of the valley for 2K a month. It simply doesn't exist. 2K+ for a small condo and 3.5K for the average home is the entry point for a furnished monthly rental and these will generally fetch upwards of 4K-6K/month. High end / luxury homes (3500+ sf) can easily go for 8K-10K+/month during snowbird season.

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by al-capone

Agree not possible if you book last minute. Good deal is not easy but you have the whole year to plan / watch and book for snow birding Jan to march. Even if I paid say $3.5 k per month as you said Iam at $10.5k for 3 months per year. About $100k burned in 10 years. (covid taught us how things can change in just one year) In return.. no maintenance, no locked into paying mortgage/maintenance/hoa when not using house or hassle of putting it on Air b n b/ renting out in the scorching summer months. Even better you get to stay different southern states every winter (Atlanta, Naples FL..). You get the point.

I'm in agreement that renting is a better idea than buying. But finding the sort of "deal" you are expecting, here for a winter rental, is unlikely. During a severe recession you can make deals, but not in a normal year. If anything you might do better waiting until last minute, but then of course there will be not much to choose from, and you might get shut out.

I just took a look for the month of January 2022. What I'd personally classify as a "nice" house in Scottsdale starts at around $6k. This is certainly nothing ostentatious, but a perfectly decent 3+ bedroom home with a yard and possibly a pool.

If we want to discuss "most upscale", I see more than 50 January rentals at greater than $50k (on VRBO), with the highest listing at almost $300k. Hard to believe anyone would get that much for a month rental, haha!

[al-capone]

Based on useful Air Bnb feedback I got above I checked and also adjusted expectations. We will be looking at something like attached now. Not bad. Thanks for all your input.