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Old 10-22-2021, 06:21 PM
 
Location: Arizona
12,934 posts, read 7,108,071 times
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We might move to Reno, NV the heat is not as intense it's even more dry then Phoenix. The housing prices shot up there in 2019 everywhere prices are so high I'm afraid to sell and buy at a much higher price then the market slumps when rates go up. Best thing would be to sell and live in a motorhome for a few years until the market corrects.
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Old 10-23-2021, 06:30 AM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,496,583 times
Reputation: 9169
Quote:
Originally Posted by kell490 View Post
We might move to Reno, NV the heat is not as intense it's even more dry then Phoenix. The housing prices shot up there in 2019 everywhere prices are so high I'm afraid to sell and buy at a much higher price then the market slumps when rates go up. Best thing would be to sell and live in a motorhome for a few years until the market corrects.
Reno gets cold and snow in the winter, it's not Minneapolis, but compared to Phoenix, it might as well be
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Old 10-23-2021, 06:49 AM
 
9,682 posts, read 11,076,579 times
Reputation: 8429
Quote:
Originally Posted by kell490 View Post
We might move to Reno, NV the heat is not as intense it's even more dry then Phoenix. The housing prices shot up there in 2019 everywhere prices are so high I'm afraid to sell and buy at a much higher price then the market slumps when rates go up. Best thing would be to sell and live in a motorhome for a few years until the market corrects.
You are assuming that the pricing slumps. For every article that lays out the formula for showing why housing corrects, I'll match it with ones that show it is going to increase. The second that the market turns, just watch how much pressure it is for the rates to drop back down.

Here is one guy's opinion as to why prices are going to continue to go up:
"Though "crash" articles get clicks, real estate will appreciate at an above-average rate through late 2021 for three reasons–scarcity, utility and demand. Scarcity: there is a shortage of 6.8 million housing units. Utility: the home is now the center of the remote workers' world by being both the office and gym. Demand: Millennials are America's largest generation, in their prime home-buying years. " https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesr...h=3b586926106e

Now that's a fact. Still, if the supply chain breaks and we enter into a major recession, the housing market might correct in a big way. Or, will inflation have already have taken off to the point where what you are seeing with prices are "cheap"? So go ahead and cramp yourself in that RV. You might watch the market further pass you by. Or, show how smart (a.k.a. lucky) you were to live in that cramped RV for three miserable years of your life.

Option 3. Buy the house in an area so that you are happy. then if prices adjust and drop, hang tight until it goes back up.
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Old 10-23-2021, 10:33 AM
 
Location: Arizona
12,934 posts, read 7,108,071 times
Reputation: 9908
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised View Post
You are assuming that the pricing slumps. For every article that lays out the formula for showing why housing corrects, I'll match it with ones that show it is going to increase. The second that the market turns, just watch how much pressure it is for the rates to drop back down.

Here is one guy's opinion as to why prices are going to continue to go up:
"Though "crash" articles get clicks, real estate will appreciate at an above-average rate through late 2021 for three reasons–scarcity, utility and demand. Scarcity: there is a shortage of 6.8 million housing units. Utility: the home is now the center of the remote workers' world by being both the office and gym. Demand: Millennials are America's largest generation, in their prime home-buying years. " https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesr...h=3b586926106e

Now that's a fact. Still, if the supply chain breaks and we enter into a major recession, the housing market might correct in a big way. Or, will inflation have already have taken off to the point where what you are seeing with prices are "cheap"? So go ahead and cramp yourself in that RV. You might watch the market further pass you by. Or, show how smart (a.k.a. lucky) you were to live in that cramped RV for three miserable years of your life.

Option 3. Buy the house in an area so that you are happy. then if prices adjust and drop, hang tight until it goes back up.

It's a measurable fact that the number of houses for sale in 2019 were around 20k in the Metro area. Right up until a few weeks ago it was down to 6k now were up to 10k. When more homes come up on the market prices will correct.

https://arizonarealestatenotebook.co...glance-charts/

Remote worker will reduce over time as covid goes away. I know several friends who's companies have started to reduce it making people come in the office a few days week. Collaboration and mentoring was a major issue they said. Also management felt employees were too distracted at home they don't like not being able to watch over employees. Remote work is good for contract workers who are hired to do a project a PM sets goals and person just works alone. It doesn't work in other types of industries.

What is going to happen when that Millennial bought a home 100 miles from a major city they can't find a job, or are forced to drive in the office 3 days a week. Those homes will go up for sale.

Mortgage Interest rates could jump if the Fed starts to raise rates if that happens that will drain away buyers who can't afford the high prices. This could happen and remote worker jobs will reduce to lower numbers at the same time if employers layoff it could be lot worse.

I think were headed for a major correction in homes. I did read the link you had some of those statements contradicted one another one said home builders are building homes average American can't afford so inventory will remain low? If buyers can't afford those homes that are being built how will they get sold? Inventory would go up not down. Home builders are building expensive homes because interest rates are low average American can afford them. I expect home mortgages will increase years such as 40-50 year fixed rate mortgages to counter high interest rates.

Last edited by kell490; 10-23-2021 at 10:54 AM..
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Old 10-23-2021, 10:58 AM
 
Location: Arizona
12,934 posts, read 7,108,071 times
Reputation: 9908
Quote:
Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220 View Post
Reno gets cold and snow in the winter, it's not Minneapolis, but compared to Phoenix, it might as well be
I don't mind the cold I ski and snowboard cold doesn't bother me at all put on a jacket. In the winter here I keep the house at 50-60F I hardly ever use a heater here in Phoenix. Sleep so much better in the cold weather. In the summer run my AC down to 73F just don't like the heat but been stuck here due to elderly family, and a high paying job.
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Old 10-23-2021, 01:08 PM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,496,583 times
Reputation: 9169
Quote:
Originally Posted by kell490 View Post
I don't mind the cold I ski and snowboard cold doesn't bother me at all put on a jacket. In the winter here I keep the house at 50-60F I hardly ever use a heater here in Phoenix. Sleep so much better in the cold weather. In the summer run my AC down to 73F just don't like the heat but been stuck here due to elderly family, and a high paying job.
Reno does regularly top 100°F in the summer, even if they cool off at night
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Old 10-24-2021, 07:51 AM
 
9,682 posts, read 11,076,579 times
Reputation: 8429
Quote:
Originally Posted by kell490 View Post
I think were headed for a major correction in homes.
We we can agree that you are guessing. Your post was busy convincing me that it is going to happen. My point was I could spend an equal amount of time "proving" it will go up some more. It depends on the economy and how severely the next recession is. It seems that the government was willing to crawl into TRILLIONS of $$'s in debt to stop a deeper recession. Who says they don't do the same thing... Over, and over, and over again? So go place your bet and enjoy the RV for three years. I'm saying, don't be surprised if it went up more. Especially the western states and especially if the government has anything to say about it (and they do).

Anyways, I'm not saying the overheated housing market won't correct. I can see it going either way. But I do wonder who listened to this guy //www.city-data.com/forum/phoen...orrection.html
If I bought into his POV, I would be down a solid $500K. YMMV. I'd recommend doing the opposite of what he thinks! Best of luck with your decision.
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Old 10-24-2021, 11:12 AM
 
Location: az
13,440 posts, read 7,809,439 times
Reputation: 9311
Quote:
Originally Posted by kell490 View Post
It's a measurable fact that the number of houses for sale in 2019 were around 20k in the Metro area. Right up until a few weeks ago it was down to 6k now were up to 10k. When more homes come up on the market prices will correct.

https://arizonarealestatenotebook.co...glance-charts/

Remote worker will reduce over time as covid goes away. I know several friends who's companies have started to reduce it making people come in the office a few days week. Collaboration and mentoring was a major issue they said. Also management felt employees were too distracted at home they don't like not being able to watch over employees. Remote work is good for contract workers who are hired to do a project a PM sets goals and person just works alone. It doesn't work in other types of industries.

What is going to happen when that Millennial bought a home 100 miles from a major city they can't find a job, or are forced to drive in the office 3 days a week. Those homes will go up for sale.

Mortgage Interest rates could jump if the Fed starts to raise rates if that happens that will drain away buyers who can't afford the high prices. This could happen and remote worker jobs will reduce to lower numbers at the same time if employers layoff it could be lot worse.

I think were headed for a major correction in homes. I did read the link you had some of those statements contradicted one another one said home builders are building homes average American can't afford so inventory will remain low? If buyers can't afford those homes that are being built how will they get sold? Inventory would go up not down. Home builders are building expensive homes because interest rates are low average American can afford them. I expect home mortgages will increase years such as 40-50 year fixed rate mortgages to counter high interest rates.

With regards to the inventory chart how high it goes is anyone's guess. People are moving here in droves particularly from Cal. I'll be watching what two of my renter who have money will do. Recently one couple explained they plan to stay with me next year hoping price will fall.

When they moved from out of state (2021) they planned to buy in Gilbert. They have family here and know the area. So why didn't they buy? Because a property like mine (which is what they are looking for) was selling (4/21) for $420k. They felt 420k was too much. Today it's 500k.

Note: A 4bed/2bath home over 2000 sq. ft in Gilbert or Chandler will run $2500 a month or 30k a year to rent in 2022.

Early 2020 $1800 per month was the asking rent.

Last edited by john3232; 10-24-2021 at 11:42 AM..
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Old 10-24-2021, 10:20 PM
 
Location: Phoenix,AZ
994 posts, read 957,276 times
Reputation: 929
I moved here a year ago from the southeast. I will admit that I miss rain, cloudy overcast days, and even the humidity a bit , but It's not to not have to really worry about if its gonna rain out your plans here. This was my first full summer here and it was **** tbh, but i survived , thought I actually like Humidity especially if there's water nearby such as a creek or river. One of the things I dont like about AZ is how theres no quick access to a river or creek unless you go up to Payson or Show low really. Yea you have salt river and lake pleasant in the valley , but always too many people and I don't like too many people.
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Old 10-25-2021, 12:13 AM
 
Location: Arizona
12,934 posts, read 7,108,071 times
Reputation: 9908
What about all the mortgages that got behind during covid when those are allowed to foreclose it will add to the inventory.

"There are still 1.618 million borrowers in forbearance programs, or 3.1% of all outstanding mortgages" This link says they think because of the higher equity it won't lead to another housing crises who knows.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/10/why-...ts-expire.html
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