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Old 05-22-2021, 09:32 AM
 
Location: Everywhere and no where
1,108 posts, read 1,373,094 times
Reputation: 1996

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I tried to tell everyone a couple of years ago that Phoenix was too cheap, everything was underpriced and you should buy a home if you can. This was the days of constant threads / chat of "Phoenix is too expensive!! Prices will crash!!" that have been going on since 2015.

I told everyone that based on my constant travels across the US, especially to major west coast cities, that Phoenix was too cheap, and a tsunami was coming that was going to cause Phoenix to catch up with other cities somewhat.

That wave has arrived for some time now. So many people are moving to Phoenix because the homes were so affordable, relative to the cost of living and great geographic proximity to other west coast locations.

I remember buying homes in 2018 / 2019 when amazing dream homes were sitting for 5-6 months on the market, barely being touched. Those were the days....I could afford to look at 3-4 dream homes, evaluate the upside, and then make low-ball offers and pick up homes for cheap.

The crash of 2008 really did a number on the psyche of a lot of people, who assumed Phoenix would be cheap forever and never grow up as a major city. The constant cries of "Phoenix is gonna crash again" really hurt a lot of potential homebuyers and cost them a lot of money.

What do I predict for the next 10-20 years is Phoenix is going to get more costly and expensive. So if you are waiting for a crash now, and don't own a home, you're going to cost yourself a fortune.

Intel's $20b investment in Chandler, TSMC's $35b investment in north Phoenix, along with many other high tech businesses coming to Phoenix or looking at coming here, is going to cause the cost of living to keep going up. It will be like Silicon Valley back in the 70's / 80's...you think it's expensive now? Just wait.

This is why despite having sold some homes to generate cash for other investments, I'm buying more strategic properties located near these new target locations of new businesses that are coming to Phoenix

You can't change the past, but do plan for the future. Keep saving money and try to get in on the property ladder as soon as you can. The longer you delay, the greater the chance are you are priced out forever.

Owning a home is not an option for many unfortunate people. Look at what happens in Hong Kong - people dream of owning something that is basically a tiny box. Don't miss the boat and whine about the past...keep saving and try to get on the property ladder.

Hopefully people are smarter and wiser to not pay attention of the doom sayers about real estate and Phoenix. Those doom sayers may have permanently doomed a large number of potential home buyers from ever being able to afford a home in Phoenix in a time when housing was extremely affordable here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2omC_s2odU

Last edited by AndroidAZ; 05-22-2021 at 09:43 AM..
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Old 05-22-2021, 11:06 AM
 
Location: az
13,243 posts, read 7,667,064 times
Reputation: 9189
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndroidAZ View Post
I tried to tell everyone a couple of years ago that Phoenix was too cheap, everything was underpriced and you should buy a home if you can. This was the days of constant threads / chat of "Phoenix is too expensive!! Prices will crash!!" that have been going on since 2015.

I told everyone that based on my constant travels across the US, especially to major west coast cities, that Phoenix was too cheap, and a tsunami was coming that was going to cause Phoenix to catch up with other cities somewhat.

That wave has arrived for some time now. So many people are moving to Phoenix because the homes were so affordable, relative to the cost of living and great geographic proximity to other west coast locations.

I remember buying homes in 2018 / 2019 when amazing dream homes were sitting for 5-6 months on the market, barely being touched. Those were the days....I could afford to look at 3-4 dream homes, evaluate the upside, and then make low-ball offers and pick up homes for cheap.

The crash of 2008 really did a number on the psyche of a lot of people, who assumed Phoenix would be cheap forever and never grow up as a major city. The constant cries of "Phoenix is gonna crash again" really hurt a lot of potential homebuyers and cost them a lot of money.

What do I predict for the next 10-20 years is Phoenix is going to get more costly and expensive. So if you are waiting for a crash now, and don't own a home, you're going to cost yourself a fortune.

Intel's $20b investment in Chandler, TSMC's $35b investment in north Phoenix, along with many other high tech businesses coming to Phoenix or looking at coming here, is going to cause the cost of living to keep going up. It will be like Silicon Valley back in the 70's / 80's...you think it's expensive now? Just wait.

This is why despite having sold some homes to generate cash for other investments, I'm buying more strategic properties located near these new target locations of new businesses that are coming to Phoenix

You can't change the past, but do plan for the future. Keep saving money and try to get in on the property ladder as soon as you can. The longer you delay, the greater the chance are you are priced out forever.

Owning a home is not an option for many unfortunate people. Look at what happens in Hong Kong - people dream of owning something that is basically a tiny box. Don't miss the boat and whine about the past...keep saving and try to get on the property ladder.

Hopefully people are smarter and wiser to not pay attention of the doom sayers about real estate and Phoenix. Those doom sayers may have permanently doomed a large number of potential home buyers from ever being able to afford a home in Phoenix in a time when housing was extremely affordable here.

Times have changed. West Coast elites like my brother/wife who said they would never live here as recent as 2018 are now...sweating bullets. The wealthy west side of LA is in danger of having homeless shelters built in their own backyard.

In my brother's case a shelter is being planned for the parking area along side Will Rogers beach which is a 3 min drive from his 2 million dollar home. If the parking area ends up housing hundred of homeless it will affect property values and local residents are screaming.

However, it was the pandemic which seems to have put the exodus for Cal into overdrive. Unfortutantly, there's a lot of competition for companies. The last two renters I placed moved here from out of state. They have well paying jobs and both said they plan to buy in the next year or two.

The future of the PHX metro remains to be seen but no... the cost of housing isn't going down anytime soon.

Prices will level off but for now I'm waiting to see if the current Admins decides to lower Fannie Mae requirements.

If they do and the home I'm living in (East Mesa 4 bed/2/bath 1660 sq. ft. home with pool) tops the 400k mark in 2023 (currently 340k.)

I'll take the money and run.
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Old 05-22-2021, 11:19 AM
 
717 posts, read 1,049,748 times
Reputation: 2250
It’s weird that someone so incredibly prescient, wise, and extraordinarily well traveled failed to notice that the out of control housing prices have hit every major metro in the US and is in no way limited to Phoenix. Go to just about any city data forum and you will find multiple threads lamenting the insane housing market. This includes cities in places like Ohio and Alabama - not exactly international hotspots. This unhealthy and unsustainable market is being fueled by artificial pressures imposed by the fed which include unprecedentedly low rates and significant inflation fears leading investors to park money in real estate as a hedge against the weakening dollar.
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Old 05-22-2021, 01:17 PM
 
Location: Redwood City, CA
15,240 posts, read 12,804,790 times
Reputation: 54002
I forget the year, 2015 or 2016, maybe...

I tried to tell my spouse we should buy one of the homes in the last Anthem phase, west of I17, off W Circle Mountain Road as an investment. The smallest model was around $150k. He could have written a check.

I can't even look at the resale prices any more.
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Old 05-22-2021, 02:07 PM
 
1,097 posts, read 729,048 times
Reputation: 1576
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maroon197 View Post
It’s weird that someone so incredibly prescient, wise, and extraordinarily well traveled failed to notice that the out of control housing prices have hit every major metro in the US and is in no way limited to Phoenix. Go to just about any city data forum and you will find multiple threads lamenting the insane housing market. This includes cities in places like Ohio and Alabama - not exactly international hotspots. This unhealthy and unsustainable market is being fueled by artificial pressures imposed by the fed which include unprecedentedly low rates and significant inflation fears leading investors to park money in real estate as a hedge against the weakening dollar.
Are you saying we might see something like 2008 again?
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Old 05-22-2021, 03:05 PM
 
Location: az
13,243 posts, read 7,667,064 times
Reputation: 9189
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maroon197 View Post
It’s weird that someone so incredibly prescient, wise, and extraordinarily well traveled failed to notice that the out of control housing prices have hit every major metro in the US and is in no way limited to Phoenix. Go to just about any city data forum and you will find multiple threads lamenting the insane housing market. This includes cities in places like Ohio and Alabama - not exactly international hotspots. This unhealthy and unsustainable market is being fueled by artificial pressures imposed by the fed which include unprecedentedly low rates and significant inflation fears leading investors to park money in real estate as a hedge against the weakening dollar.


2005: I took out four Fannie Mae loans. Only income verification my US tax returns


2010: 800 credit score and probably the only person who bought in 2005 that didn't default on their loan. No dice. Couldn't get a Fannie Mae loan. I was willing to put down 25-30k. However, the best I could provide regarding for income verification: copies of US tax returns and have my work contracts /monthly pay stubs professionally translated. It wasn't enough. They wanted to verify over the phone 10 days before closing I was still employed. This was impossible for me working overseas.

Today?

My renter in Chandler bought a new build in San Tan. 710 credit score and 15k down. Closing is next week on the 27th. The 28th they pick up the keys. He's nervous. He provided pay stubs at the beginning of May and his RE agent said the lender may ask to see them again next week. He got a call from the lender yesterday wanting to know about some recent deposits. They were made by his wife for free-lance work she did. Husband is taking out the loan. Wife doesn't have a job. Takes care of the kids at home. Husband feels 99% sure he'll be out on June 1st. But... if there's a problem and the closing is delayed can they stay a week or two longer. I said fine.

Now... my renter in 85205 is a lovely woman. Divorced with three children. Moved in 2016. Says she wants to buy the house. Property management placed here so I don't know her credit score. Suspect it isn't good. Income is marginal. Under 40k a year. Her parents help out with the rent. The magic number is 400k. If the woman can get the loan... the house is hers. But will she?

Waiting to see where this goes:
https://www.mcall.com/business/real-...mka-story.html

So, what's the point?

The point is at present it appears those buying homes are qualified. Will this change? Humm.

Weak USD? Not against the yen. Click on the last 20 years. Dollar started crashing in 2009 and didn't bounce back until 2014. Today it's 109 or stable against the yen
https://www.macrotrends.net/2550/dol...storical-chart

Ohio and Alabama? Don't know. However in AZ::
https://azbigmedia.com/lifestyle/mor...ng-to-arizona/

Last edited by john3232; 05-22-2021 at 04:17 PM..
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Old 05-22-2021, 03:10 PM
 
Location: Victory Mansions, Airstrip One
6,643 posts, read 4,931,954 times
Reputation: 8979
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maroon197 View Post
It’s weird that someone so incredibly prescient, wise, and extraordinarily well traveled failed to notice that the out of control housing prices have hit every major metro in the US and is in no way limited to Phoenix. Go to just about any city data forum and you will find multiple threads lamenting the insane housing market
Yup. And it’s not just cities. We’re in the process of selling our parent’s house in the Midwest. It’s a two hour drive from anything I consider a city. There are three parties very interested, and that’s without listing it or advertising. Granted, word of mouth sales are not uncommon there. But I was very surprised at the amount of interest.
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Old 05-22-2021, 03:21 PM
 
Location: Phoenix
29,751 posts, read 18,615,199 times
Reputation: 25751
Some of us realized the value and bought multiple houses....I wish I had bought even more.
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Old 05-22-2021, 03:54 PM
 
1,097 posts, read 729,048 times
Reputation: 1576
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
Some of us realized the value and bought multiple houses....I wish I had bought even more.
Funny, my wife is from China, and she predicted this long ago. She knew everything was undervalued. Let's just hope it doesn't go the way of China, where properties were eventually bought up by the government, demolished and turned into skyrises. Unless you live in the far countryside, virtually everyone in China lives in a 7+ story apartment/condo.
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Old 05-22-2021, 04:00 PM
 
4,619 posts, read 9,219,871 times
Reputation: 4968
You didn't tell me anything

I added to my rental portfolio over the past 5-6 years, although I wouldn't buy an investment property today at retail price.
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