Median price for Phoenix house goes up to $450,000 (Surprise: how much, buyers)

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220

Oh yeah, because real estate prices going into the stratosphere is such a good thing......

Ah, the shark replies! The other thread I was referring to was actually something I started over 2 years ago, which brought up the fact that Phoenix is no longer an affordable place to live. The cost of living has become noticeably higher for everybody, including homeowners (the ones you've labeled as "cruel", "greedy", "selfish", etc.). I clearly stated in that thread that while rising home values are a plus, there is a concern that overall wages here aren't keeping up with the cost of living. You likely have forgotten about this in your 26,000+ posts.
https://www.city-data.com/forum/phoen...ble-place.html

Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220

I'm not a religious man, but what is that saying, "it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than it is for a rich man to go to heaven". I believe there is truth to that

I'm not religious at all, but lately when I see your posts, I find myself saying "Jesus Christ!" quite often. Couldn't resist that one.
()

[john3232]

Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220

No, you guys are cruel. You act like your @#$% don't stink because you got yours, and you cheer on ever higher prices, even though it screws everyone who doesn't already own. Plus you personally told me I chose the wrong career a few months ago, even though I'm making more money per year than I ever thought I would. So sorry I'm not a doctor or a dentist like your kids.....

If prices were to crash you'd be crowing just as loud (if not louder) than many did back in 2007. And yes I'm very happy the cost of housing esp. rents having gone through the roof. The jump in rents have helped with the cost of renovations. I don't owe renters a thing anything accept to maintain my properties and to be sure the lease agreement is in accordance with AZ rental law. If renters find East Mesa has become too expensive...there's West Mesa.

Now, I also consider myself a friendly and reasonable landlord but don't **** with my money. One of my renters didn't pay their rent today. If I don't receive it tomorrow I'll be sending a five-day notice of nonpayment which is the first step in the eviction process.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...um/8243599002/

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Tall Traveler

So who believes we've now hit the ceiling for prices in Phoenix? So is there a better value for a location that is cheaper?

I think we pretty much hit the ceiling with the massive PHC RE pricing build-up. Certainly, until the normal buying season kicks in great around February. That's going to be the next test. But here in PHX, so long as demand outstrips supply, I would expect normal appreciation levels like 2-6% per year. Surely, that hyper build-up is over. The wildcard is how many people cash out and move to a lower COL state. I know several retirees doing that.

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I think we pretty much hit the ceiling with the massive PHC RE pricing build-up. Certainly, until the normal buying season kicks in great around February. That's going to be the next test. But here in PHX, so long as demand outstrips supply, I would expect normal appreciation levels like 2-6% per year. Surely, that hyper build-up is over. The wildcard is how many people cash out and move to a lower COL state. I know several retirees doing that.

Yeah it's hard to imagine the price appreciation rate to continue, it seems to have run out of steam. However, we still have low inventory, don't have a mortgage crisis, a strong economy locally and high demand so it's also hard to see how the prices could fall much in the near term.

I haven't seen retirees leaving from where we live to move to a lower cost location but we have seem investors that bought after the prices crashed in 2008-2011 unload at high prices.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220

That means half are over 33 for starters. 2nd, I guarantee that the half under 33 have help from mom&dad with the down-payment. No one in my circle who is anywhere near my age is a homeowner, and we're not poor either

I mean, my fiancee's boss is around 30 and owns a townhouse (with a mortgage), but she's a rich girl. And her wealthy mother (actually wealthy, as in multi-millionaire) put $100k down on it as a gift

By the way, if you want to go with the average versus the median, then the age is 34 https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-e...place%20Zillow.

Next, do you guarantee that they all had help? Well, you are wrong. Read https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-e...place%20Zillow.
" New data from financial services company Legal & General finds that 43 percent of homeowners age 34 and younger got money from family or friends." So 57% did it on their own.

Or putting it another way, millions of people under the age of 34 are buying homes by themselves. Additionally, of the 43% who got a gift, nothing says it was mandatory in order to buy a home. Rather, they got a gift. That could mean someone helped them to buy a bigger home. For example, our future daughter-in-law surely will be gifting some funds to buy a house. And our son and his future wife can afford a home after they finish their residencies (around $700K in pending income) even with a "gift".

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Tall Traveler

Yeah it's hard to imagine the price appreciation rate to continue, it seems to have run out of steam. However, we still have low inventory, don't have a mortgage crisis, a strong economy locally and high demand so it's also hard to see how the prices could fall much in the near term.

I haven't seen retirees leaving from where we live to move to a lower cost location but we have seem investors that bought after the prices crashed in 2008-2011 unload at high prices.

I was watching Warren Buffet talk about how emotion drives markets. As in, markets could be irrationally low for YEARS. And all of a sudden, it takes off. He was talking about the stock market. But I thought there was an interesting parallel with PHX area housing. As I typed many times before, it took 16 years for the house I bought in Surprise to FINALLY reach the 2006 level when it was new. And a lot of the gains were in a short time frame. My point being, emotions held the RE market back, and emotions of people piling on made it jump. So if you are following, the emotional steam has been released some. But the real value, even in the 2015 range, was obviously undervalued to most people's eyes.

Re: retirees leaving. I don't live in a 55+ location but most/all are north of 45 years old. There were some wild and crazy appreciations going on in my specific new neighborhood. A range from $300K up to $600K in appreciation in a single year. Or to put it in perspective, a $600K-$700K home that was not on the golf course or mountain views went up to $900K to $1M. And a $900K home on the course (view, course, and pool) jumped to $1.5M. Mind you, these are nothing special places.

I even saw some outliers that sold for over $1M more (started at $1M, added a pool and incredible yard for $300K, and sold for $2.4M). Crazy crazy appreciation. And some of those people took that gain and went to another community. Like moving to the Prescott area (on a golf course) that cost them $1.2M. So if you are following, they got that new place close to "free".

2 months ago, if I listed my place for $350K more, I would have sold it in a weekend. I saw this 30 times. But TODAY in the same hood, I see price cuts and a few that are 30 days on the market. I have no doubt that those places would have sold FAST a couple of months ago. So someone released the hot air. Still, it's hot; just not overheated.

[lovecrowds]

Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220

Oh yeah, because real estate prices going into the stratosphere is such a good thing......

It's a good thing for homeowners and not a good thing for renters. The tables were turned in 2008 to 2013.

It is what it is, you make more than enough buy a very nice home in Marana, Tucson, Casa Grande and you could buy a very luxurious place in Yuma which is very close to your work in Los Angeles.

As some one from another Western state I don't understand the appeal of Phoenix, I think there are alot of interesting people and good opportunities for many but overall it's a rather mediocre metropolitan area.

But there are many who disagree from upstate New York, Midwest, Canada and love everything about Phoenix and at the current time they are willing to spend a fortune to be in the hot, usually dry desert.

They are into the stratosphere in Phoenix and there isn't anything you and any of one this forum can do about the real estate prices whether they like them not.

Who knows? Maybe the prices in Phoenix will deflate like a souffle they have before or maybe it's just the beginning of skyrocketing prices in Phoenix.

The consequence of zero-interest rate policy is sky-high prices.

Phoenix was affordable in 2010 because the in-migration at the time was low, now the in-migration is sky-high so there are more competiting for the same house and the highest bidder usually wins.

You could buy a huge house on your income in Yuma and be close to Los Angeles for work with the advantages of Arizona but right next to California

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Tall Traveler

I haven't seen retirees leaving from where we live to move to a lower cost location but we have seem investors that bought after the prices crashed in 2008-2011 unload at high prices.

A friend pointed me to a recent Surprise close where (are you sitting down) they sold to Open-Door.... For absolute TOP $$. I'll look up the address and show you. @Sno. It was in your old hood. Over $700K; CASH! It never hit MLS. And the neighbor's jaws are still on the ground.

Mind you, my friend (who is THE savviest person I have ever met and knocks on doors to make home offers; owns 5 rentals that he "stole"). He said that Open-Door came out to evaluate the house twice. Illogical. I wish I would have called Opendoor when i sold my house. If they would pay top $$, why not take a cash deal and a FAST close.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by lovecrowds

The consequence of zero-interest rate policy is sky-high prices.

Are you telling me that when the levers are messed with and manipulated by the policymakers, that changes the price? Are you also suggesting (for example) that the cost of college is overpriced because of massive financial aid? Plus, guarantee cheap (high-risk) student loans to anyone with a pulse. That sounds smart.

If that's so, I have a solution, make college "free". And if someone is on financial aid, be sure to pay for whatever private school costs. I mean, what can go wrong? lol

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Watch John Wake's (an economist) PHX RE video update here:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQ94LT0ky5E