In 2022, Zillow Predicts That Phoenix housing market will climb ANOTHER 20%?! (Mesa: HOA, home)

[Williamhbonney]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Not too hard in 2022. A bank teller makes $62K. https://www1.salary.com/Bank-Teller-Salary.html A starting salary PHX police officer is $52K. Plus OT. https://www.phoenix.gov/police/joinp...nefits-summary It's a 26 week course (where you get paid about the same starting salary money).

In other words, two-income earners making $100K are pretty common these days.

Did you actually look at that bank teller link? Most of those position pay $35k or less.

[Sno0909]

Originally Posted by Williamhbonney

Did you actually look at that bank teller link? Most of those position pay $35k or less.

He likes to use Google a lot, but it's becoming clear he doesn't go much deeper than the search page.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Williamhbonney

Did you actually look at that bank teller link? Most of those position pay $35k or less.

A while ago, I remember reading that many banks "had" to pay >$50K starting wages for tellers in order to attract talent. Not because they wanted to, but because that is what it took to get someone with a brain. In just one national bank example, Bank of America, no one makes below $21 an hour including CSR's. And therefore, tellers make even higher starting wages (read) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bank-of...-dollars-hour/ Are there not-so-good tellers that make less because they aren't worth it? Sure. While we are at it, most salary surveys are WAY off. In fact, search for what a BofA tellers make per hour. You will find payscale sites that suggest that some BofA tellers start at $13/hour. No they don't. Here is an example of inaccurate pay surveys https://www.payscale.com/research/US...A)/Hourly_Rate

And to answer your question, I didn't read the 1st teller link because of what I previously read. My point was, that starting wages at >$60K isn't hard these days. So if you make <<$60K, retool for about 6 months and make more money. But if you are lazy and aren't very smart, expect to make a lot less.

Originally Posted by Sno0909

He likes to use Google a lot, but it's becoming clear he doesn't go much deeper than the search page.

When someone is trying to validate a point, you should give a reference. In the world of the internet, it's called a google search.

For instance, most realtors don't make crap per year. Here you go https://www.google.com/search?q=Aver...hrome&ie=UTF-8 In AZ, it's hovering around "whopping" $38K average. But in 2022, the agents in our neighborhood are making hundreds of thousands per year reselling homes just in our neighborhood. So in my RE agent example just like in the bank teller, people with a brain and that have the motivation to work hard make a lot more $$. If you don't, you might starve. It's called the 80-20 rule. I'll google that for you if you like. And since I already know what the 80-20 rule means, no, I won't read the entire link either. My bad. You caught me. Guilty as charged. Lol

[bobsell]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Not too hard in 2022. A bank teller makes $62K. https://www1.salary.com/Bank-Teller-Salary.html

Really? $62K?

That site is off base.

https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=teller...bf8260bee99274 $16/hour which is $32K.



https://www.indeed.com/viewjob?jk=b3...2f68dceb&vjs=3

$18/hour. $36K

Most of the teller jobs listed are PART TIME so $62K is not happening.

Bank of America, no one makes below $21 an hour including CSR's.

Bank of America is headquartered in SAN FRANCISCO. The cost of living there is RIDICULOUS. $21/hour there is "live in your car" pay rate.

They're not paying $21/hour in Phoenix. Or in low cost of living areas.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by bobsell

Really? $62K?

That site is off base.

https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=teller...bf8260bee99274 $16/hour which is $32K.



https://www.indeed.com/viewjob?jk=b3...2f68dceb&vjs=3

$18/hour. $36K

Most of the teller jobs listed are PART TIME so $62K is not happening.





Bank of America is headquartered in SAN FRANCISCO. The cost of living there is RIDICULOUS. $21/hour there is "live in your car" pay rate.

They're not paying $21/hour in Phoenix. Or in low cost of living areas.

"Today, Bank of America announced it has raised its U.S. minimum hourly wage to $21 as a next step in the company’s plans to increase to $25 by 2025. In May, the company also announced that all of its U.S. vendors are now required to pay their employees dedicated to the bank, at or above $15 per hour." https://newsroom.bankofamerica.com/c...-as-next-.html

Notice is said "U.S. minimum wages". And BofA is out of NC (not the Bay area). And yes, there are thousands of full-time teller jobs. So you are wrong three times over.

[Ponderosa]

In housing news, mortgage applications for purchase fell 14% yoy as rates soared to 5.2%. The bubble is about to burst (or at least start rapidly loosing air).

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

In housing news, mortgage applications for purchase fell 14% yoy as rates soared to 5.2%. The bubble is about to burst (or at least start rapidly loosing air).

Burst? TBD. Yep! The higher rates are extinguishing the demand. The more someone needs to borrow, the faster the market is dropping. So in the $1-1.5M range and because of higher rates, sales have slowed a lot.

From the Cromford report and the supply side of the formula they explain the following:

One number that is still increasing is the number of listings "coming soon". The average count this week is 919, up from 805 this time last year. We hit a low of 441 in the third week of December, but have witnessed strong growth since then.

As supply slowly starts to recover, we anticipate we will see "coming soon" counts increase until the market softens enough to make "coming soon" a less popular option with agents. We are some considerable way from that point at the moment as the increase in supply is still very moderate.

As supply slowly starts to recover, we anticipate we will see "coming soon" counts increase until the market softens enough to make "coming soon" a less popular option with agents. We are some considerable way from that point at the moment as the increase in supply is still very moderate.


IF I personally owned several SFH rentals, knowing myself, I would cash in on one or two harder-to-sell units in a normal balanced market. Now might be the time to sell anything that isn't as desirable (against a busy road, an ugly facia, a weird layout etc). I live by the phrase "Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered". Possibly my (overly?) conservative POV. As I would have sold a couple back in 2019 when the last stall happened.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Also from the Cromford report:
"The luxury market has been on a frantic run in the last 12 months with remarkable increases in price during that period. For example:

The annual average $/SF has increased from $472 to $631 in Paradise Valley - a rise of 34%
The annual average $/SF has increased from $459 to $600 in Arcadia - a rise of 31%
The annual average $/SF has increased from $361 to $461 in the Biltmore District - a rise of 28%
The annual average $/SF has increased from $348 to $452 in North Scottsdale - a rise of 30%
There still appears to be a great of momentum in the same direction and we expect these annual averages to continue to rise throughout 2022. We say this because the 3-month average $/SF is already much higher than the annual average, at $713 in Paradise Valley, $651 in Arcadia, $504 in the Biltmore District and $506 in North Scottsdale."

What's nice about real estate is that nothing happens overnight. Often, you have MONTHS to react. I live in one of these areas. I got a deal in 2020 as it's the only way I buy anything. The person who bought from lost $145K on their 2016 built home. They did all kinds of things wrong with marketing it including hiring an unethical agent (who I went directly to when I bought). Anyways, as long as it lasts, I am up 65-70% from 2020. But the above numbers are an annual rate (my quoted number was a 2-year appreciation). And those percentages seem accurate in our specific neighborhood. Per the Chromford report, prices are still going up even with the higher rates. But that's going to change.

[Ponderosa]

I wonder what people (young, especially) are going to do in this situation. Prices were already at or above affordability limits and a near doubling of interest rates added hundreds of dollars to a potential payment on top of that. The housing shortage persists though, and supply chain and labor challenges are likely to keep it that way for some time. So homes and apartments are both unaffordable and unavailable for a huge proportion of the population. I see where this might go. Our daughter recently suggested that she would have been smart to move back in with us instead of a new apartment.

[john3232]

My guess is people will continue moving here and the Valley will continue to grow. However, I think we can all agree housing is no longer inexpensive. Those days are gone and won't be returning anytime soon.

And yes for the millionth time... the summer months are brutal.

But as someone who has spent time in desirable cities life isn't too bad here. I can understand why couples might want to put down roots or why a single person would enjoy living in Tempe or downtown Phx.