In 2022, Zillow Predicts That Phoenix housing market will climb ANOTHER 20%?! (Sun City: job market, organic)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by john3232

If a company like Invitation Homes had dumped 4k homes on the market this would have been reported. I suspect many sellers are mom/pop investors, flippers, those with a second, third home.

The question inquiring minds what to know is: Will the inventory continue to rise or will it suddenly slow down?

Well, the normal cycle is that RE prices drop in September (fewer visitors and parents want to be moved in before school starts). And of course, the media is going to be all over the topic. They want to sell clicks and that will help perpetuate price drops.

IMO, we needed to cool off the housing market. As to why the FED waited too long to react baffles me. Now, they over-corrected. I think they are out of touch with what is going on in Mainstreet.

[john3232]

[quote=sh9730;63750743]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

Here's something to keep in mind: the Phoenix market (and Arizona as a whole) tends to be more heavily affected by recessions because of our over dependency on real estate. The 2008 downturn really kicked us in the gut. Projects that were in the works prior to 2008 were delayed, or all together scrapped. This affected not only construction in the private sector, but the Legislature was forced to slash the state budget also. While that recession was short lived in other metros, our economy slumped a while longer, and so did our overall growth rate.


This is NOT 2008 I say again. That was fueled by MASSIVE overbuilding with sub standard quality mortgages and gambling in the larger market.

Today - there is a housing SHORTAGE. Builders are already slowing down pulling new permits in order to avoid going through what they did in 2008 and as a result that shortage will continue.

Buckeye (and Maricopa?) already have a glut of new builds on the market. 2008 wasn't that long ago and you can be sure builders who lived through that remember. On the other hand the speed in which the Phoenix housing market has shifted seemed unprecedented.

Do you continue building homes which you know you'll take a loss on? Or do you shut down the project?

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

[quote=john3232;63751819]

Buckeye (and Maricopa?) already have a glut of new builds on the market.

In Buckeye, you have over 1200 homes for sale to choose from. https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...B&gclsrc=aw.ds

There are 25,000 homes in Buckeye. 1238/25,000 homes means that 5% of the homes are for sale in Buckeye AZ...... And the listings are increasing by the day!

[john3232]

[quote=MN-Born-n-Raised;63751913]

Originally Posted by john3232

In Buckeye, you have over 1200 homes for sale to choose from. https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...B&gclsrc=aw.ds

There are 25,000 homes in Buckeye. 1238/25,000 homes means that 5% of the homes are for sale in Buckeye AZ...... And the listings are increasing by the day!

My neighbor sold his Mesa home and bought a new build in Buckeye 2/22. He was ecstatic to be leaving Mesa as it was getting too crowded. I'm sure he'll have plenty of peace and quiet as rows of new builds remain unsold.

[KurtAZ]

Some observations on "supply chain" bottlenecks and inflation:

We took a roadtrip over to LA last week to visit some family...I-10 was absolutely CLOGGED with trucks. More than I have seen in a long time and we used to make that trip all the time (less so with the kids getting older). My wife commented "So...we have a trucker shortage and supply chain issues?" Probably not scientific but empirical evidence suggest that our transportation infrastructure is getting along just fine.

Chlorine shortage? Leslie's had 35lbs buckets stacked 4 high and 10 deep. Still priced at $200/bucket when they used to be $89/bucket. Lowes had chlorine tabs overflowing their shelf. $210/bucket. We are still waiting on the plant in Louisiana to be rebuilt but, perceptually, there seems to be plenty of tabs.

I heard lumber and copper prices are coming down (haven't priced it lately) which should mean construction costs come down. Although a friend of ours just had their materials cost on a house they are building jump $30k...

President Biden told gas station owners to reduce their price at the pump last week...

I am sure there are other examples out there but I have been encouraged to see some decent sale prices at the grocery stores at least. Apparently the 90 or so fires at food processing plants over the past couple of years have been corrected? Chicken breasts are still double the price they were.

All of which leads me to believe that retailers are keeping prices artificially high while they can. Hopefully we will see some relief as prices normalize by the end of the year but...if retailers can keep the prices up over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, they stand to make some better margin.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

Some observations on "supply chain" bottlenecks and inflation:


Chlorine shortage? Leslie's had 35lbs buckets stacked 4 high and 10 deep. Still priced at $200/bucket when they used to be $89/bucket. Lowes had chlorine tabs overflowing their shelf. $210/bucket. We are still waiting on the plant in Louisiana to be rebuilt but, perceptually, there seems to be plenty of tabs.

I heard lumber and copper prices are coming down (haven't priced it lately) which should mean construction costs come down. Although a friend of ours just had their materials cost on a house they are building jump $30k...

All of which leads me to believe that retailers are keeping prices artificially high while they can. Hopefully we will see some relief as prices normalize by the end of the year but...if retailers can keep the prices up over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, they stand to make some better margin.

100% my sentiment and screw them! Prices should have come down a lot on many fronts after shortages are over but they try to keep them up. I'm waiting on lower prices before I do anything! I am thoroughly disgusted by artificially high prices, chlorine touches a sore spot as I had to buy a 190$ bucket Ridiculous.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

100% my sentiment and screw them! Prices should have come down a lot on many fronts after shortages are over but they try to keep them up. I'm waiting on lower prices before I do anything! I am thoroughly disgusted by artificially high prices, chlorine touches a sore spot as I had to buy a 190$ bucket Ridiculous.

Unbelievable the price for choline pool tablets. I usually shop for 3 inch tablets at Home Depot.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

100% my sentiment and screw them! Prices should have come down a lot on many fronts after shortages are over but they try to keep them up. I'm waiting on lower prices before I do anything! I am thoroughly disgusted by artificially high prices, chlorine touches a sore spot as I had to buy a 190$ bucket Ridiculous.

Unbelievable the price for chlorine pool tablets. (I usually shop for 3 inch tablets at Home Depot.)

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by sh9730

This is NOT 2008 I say again. That was fueled by MASSIVE overbuilding with sub standard quality mortgages and gambling in the larger market.

Today - there is a housing SHORTAGE. Builders are already slowing down pulling new permits in order to avoid going through what they did in 2008 and as a result that shortage will continue.

My main point was that it doesn't matter when the recessions occur, or what caused them. The Phoenix area always takes a bigger hit than many other metros because of our boom/bust type of economy: reliance on real estate, construction, and seasonal tourism to a lesser extent. The 2008/2009 downturn was the result the bubble bursting, largely caused by sub prime loans ... however, we had a smaller recession in 2000/2001 due to the bursting of the tech stock bubble, which also put Phoenix (and Arizona as a whole) into negative territory longer than expected, and the same thing happened about 10 years prior. We have diversified our economy somewhat, but still not quite enough to offset a major setback once another recession occurs.

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

Some observations on "supply chain" bottlenecks and inflation:

We took a roadtrip over to LA last week to visit some family...I-10 was absolutely CLOGGED with trucks. More than I have seen in a long time and we used to make that trip all the time (less so with the kids getting older). My wife commented "So...we have a trucker shortage and supply chain issues?" Probably not scientific but empirical evidence suggest that our transportation infrastructure is getting along just fine.

The supply issue is worse among certain retailers. When ordering products via Amazon, you wouldn't even know there's a supply problem. Since I prefer to get what I need at a physical store location instead of waiting several days for the delivery, I've found WalMart (in most cases) has the basic things that I need, and shelves are always restocked. Walgreens and CVS: forget it! Plenty of empty shelves, and their pharmacies are often out of stock on specific medications, which can be delayed for days or weeks. Certain grocery items have been in short supply for a while, such as sugar free/no sugar added foods. I'd say a lot of it is laziness (depending on the supplier and the retailer) than it is a true national supply chain issue.

[KurtAZ]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

The supply issue is worse among certain retailers. When ordering products via Amazon, you wouldn't even know there's a supply problem. Since I prefer to get what I need at a physical store location instead of waiting several days for the delivery, I've found WalMart (in most cases) has the basic things that I need, and shelves are always restocked. Walgreens and CVS: forget it! Plenty of empty shelves, and their pharmacies are often out of stock on specific medications, which can be delayed for days or weeks. Certain grocery items have been in short supply for a while, such as sugar free/no sugar added foods. I'd say a lot of it is laziness (depending on the supplier and the retailer) than it is a true national supply chain issue.

You know...I have noticed this as well. We used to shop our local Fry's, religiously, but it started getting overcrowded and things that went on sale were always out of stock. We noticed people loading up multiple baskets with sale items, purchasing them and then boxing them up in front of the store and put in a large van. Now...I can't say where they were going...food shelter? Smaller store somewhere? I don't know but we got fed up with not being able to find items we wanted/needed.

We started shopping at Albertson's down the street. Got good at using their app and they were pretty good for a while although marginally more expensive. That started getting busier as well...I guess people that could shop elsewhere got fed up with Fry's tool...and started noticing staples being in short supply there.

Then we tried the Safeway further down the street. Same marginally high prices than Albertson's, same app, MUCH better store/shopping experience, covered parking, and they are hardly ever out of anything. I guess if you are willing to pay a bit more, you can get the things you need. I had to go by Fry's a couple of days ago (they had brisket on sale for $2.99/lbs) and it seems that their prices have caught up to Safeway so, no need to go back to Fry's unless there is a specific item on sale.

We have heard good things about Aldi's and will try them again, I was not impressed the first time we went in there, but we shall see.