In 2022, Zillow Predicts That Phoenix housing market will climb ANOTHER 20%?! (Surprise: wages, to live in)

[john3232]

The woman does a good job of breaking down the Phx market:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7G326V__OY

[john3232]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

I saw that...yeah but anyone that even THOUGHT of dealing with an iBuyer had to have known they were getting lowballed and then getting fee after fee piled on. It is not that hard to recognize that a business is not going to make you the best offer you are going to get and then make no money on the deal. People don't work for free...if a company wants your house it is because they are going to make money off of it.

OpenDoor got fined cause they kept telling people that they were getting the best price they were going to get for their property. Which after all the fees and comparing what they COULD have sold for with a Realtor...is almost always false. iBuyers are going after the instant gratification crowd and taking them for what they can get.

I contacted OpenDoor a while back and they gave me a very nice offer. A very nice initial offer. There was to be an inspection but this was downplayed. Their selling point was I could have a check in my hands by the end of the week.

I told the representative I was selling the home "as is." No inspection. Send me the paperwork and I'll run it by my attorney. But I knew they weren't going to go for that. I'd heard stories where the inspection knocks the price way down. The idea being the homeowner will capitulate and agree. They want that check.

[WanderingRebel]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

I saw that...yeah but anyone that even THOUGHT of dealing with an iBuyer had to have known they were getting lowballed and then getting fee after fee piled on. It is not that hard to recognize that a business is not going to make you the best offer you are going to get and then make no money on the deal. People don't work for free...if a company wants your house it is because they are going to make money off of it.

OpenDoor got fined cause they kept telling people that they were getting the best price they were going to get for their property. Which after all the fees and comparing what they COULD have sold for with a Realtor...is almost always false. iBuyers are going after the instant gratification crowd and taking them for what they can get.

I'm just not sure a "newer" company like this can absorb such a large fine. That company must have been bleeding money anyway. A friend of mine worked there for 6 weeks - he then got laid off and they gave him 7 months severance. A lot of times startups like this are just looking for market share. They were competing with OfferPad, Zillow, etc plus all the other actual realtors. They don't care if they lose money in the short-term, it's the long play about market share and eventually cashing out.

[john3232]

Correction: the I-buyer I was in contact a few months back was OfferPad. Not OpenDoor.

[KurtAZ]

Originally Posted by WanderingRebel

I'm just not sure a "newer" company like this can absorb such a large fine. That company must have been bleeding money anyway. A friend of mine worked there for 6 weeks - he then got laid off and they gave him 7 months severance. A lot of times startups like this are just looking for market share. They were competing with OfferPad, Zillow, etc plus all the other actual realtors. They don't care if they lose money in the short-term, it's the long play about market share and eventually cashing out.

Definitely operating at a loss, like most startups but -$3M last year...yikes.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OPEN/cash-flow?p=OPEN

[Mike from back east]

Here's what Zillow has told me each month of 2022 that they think my home is worth.

Jan 706k
Feb 720k
Mar 738k
Apr 769k
May 786k
Jun 795k
Jul 792k
Aug 776k

The rise from Jan to Jun was 89K, or 12.6%. Math is 89 divided by 706, i.e., 12.6%.

Net rise from Jan to Aug was 70K, or 09.9%. Math is 70 divided by 706, i.e., 09.9%.

Not going to see 20% this year.

[WanderingRebel]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Here's what Zillow has told me each month of 2022 that they think my home is worth.

Jan 706k
Feb 720k
Mar 738k
Apr 769k
May 786k
Jun 795k
Jul 792k
Aug 776k

The rise from Jan to Jun was 89K, or 12.6%. Math is 89 divided by 706, i.e., 12.6%.

Net rise from Jan to Aug was 70K, or 09.9%. Math is 70 divided by 706, i.e., 09.9%.

Not going to see 20% this year.

The important question is what was it in January 2020? These dips are nothing.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by WanderingRebel

The important question is what was it in January 2020? These dips are nothing.

In January 2020, Zillow said my home was worth $515K. I'm a packrat, I keep LOTS of emails.

[john3232]

According to Zillow (for what it's worth) my seven SFH are down the last 30 days:

85205 - 2.1%, 2.5% -2.7%

85234 - 2.3% and 3.0%

85249 - 3.5%

85286: - 2.4%

Each home is up over 200k since 2020.

[AlexZaz.]

My home value is now down to $569k from its peak of $590k. It is right around March levels currently and it is still good because when I bought it in August of 2019, I got it for $330k. I do agree that Phoenix is overpriced though.