In 2022, Zillow Predicts That Phoenix housing market will climb ANOTHER 20%?! (transfer, salary)

[JohnZ963]

Originally Posted by WanderingRebel

Sterling Grove must be at least 90% occupied by people who just moved here from out of state and don't know any better. Why anyone in their right mind would spend about $1.5 million to live in Surprise is beyond me. I guess like MN said, if you are a local doctor or business owner, then it makes sense. Other than that, it has to be people from out of state that look at a map of Phoenix Metro and think "Surprise doesn't look too far out there...."

I was bored one evening and looked at the affidavits of value from most of the sales in there. The overwhelming majority of buyers reported prior addresses that were out of state, with California in the lead. Probably a higher percentage of out-of-state buyers than I've seen in any non-age restricted new home community in the west valley. The pricing in Sterling Grove is completely insane for the location and I think it will get crushed in this downturn worse than anything else out that way.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by JohnZ963

I was bored one evening and looked at the affidavits of value from most of the sales in there. The overwhelming majority of buyers reported prior addresses that were out of state, with California in the lead. Probably a higher percentage of out-of-state buyers than I've seen in any non-age restricted new home community in the west valley. The pricing in Sterling Grove is completely insane for the location and I think it will get crushed in this downturn worse than anything else out that way.

A percentage of Sterling Grove is in fact, age-restricted (55+). TBD on depreciation. I certainly wouldn't be confident considering it is the most expensive hood in the area. But it's gated and it's on a golf course. I might not be worth much to some, but they are selling. My popcorn is popped.

[jdahunt]

I saw this on Reddit.....can someone add in the years for 2008-2010?


https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/co...ter_than_2005/

[john3232]

This woman gives a pretty good weekly update on the Phx metro market. Data comes from Cromford Report. In a nutshell over the past few weeks the number of homes hitting the market has begun to slow and there has been a slight uptick in home sales:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MF-T2XSbbys

[john3232]

I like to use Redfin for info regarding recent sales (last 5 days)

Here's 85205 (Mesa)

79 DOM 1% under list 309 per sq. ft

70 DOM 8% over list 291 per sq ft

43 DOM 0% under list 281 per sq ft.

17 DOM 3% over list 257 per sq ft

87 DOM 2% under list 235 per sq ft

106 DOM 3% over list 190 per sq ft

40 DOM 0% over list 273 per sq ft


Here's 85234 (Gilbert)

88 DOM 0% under list 273 sq ft

99 DOM 0% under list 255 sq ft

35 DOM 0% under list 359 sq ft

43 DOM 1% under list 341 sq ft

85 DOM 6% under list 256 sq ft

35 DOM 7% under list 229 sq ft

40 DOM 4% over list 256 sq ft.

[john3232]

Regarding local rents: They have stabilized but are still strong.
https://www.azfamily.com/2022/08/19/...lexes-goes-up/

My newest tenant who recently sold their home will be paying 28k a year (85234 zip.)

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by hikernut

We had one in our neighborhood recently. They are asking nearly 2x what they paid for it less than two years ago. Will be interesting to see how long that one takes to sell, and if they need to drop their listing price at all.

This house went under contract quickly, in about one week. Won't know the price until it closes, though. It's a good house, practically turnkey. There's a bit of landscape fix up that needs to be done in the back, but that's all.

[jdahunt]

Originally Posted by john3232

This woman gives a pretty good weekly update on the Phx metro market. Data comes from Cromford Report. In a nutshell over the past few weeks the number of homes hitting the market has begun to slow and there has been a slight uptick in home sales:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MF-T2XSbbys

Not likely, just wait until 2023 Q1.........then we can revisit this.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Economist and RE John Wake found an interesting trend in the PHX area housing market.
He discovered that the listed homes currently on the market is heavily (heavily) skewed within the 1,000 to 2,000 square foot market. Or putting it another way, if you are planning on buying in that size category, expect further and faster depreciation rates in the months ahead. He explains why here:

https://youtu.be/Dzd3SHHNp5E

[jdahunt]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Economist and RE John Wake found an interesting trend in the PHX area housing market.
He discovered that the listed homes currently on the market is heavily (heavily) skewed within the 1,000 to 2,000 square foot market. Or putting it another way, if you are planning on buying in that size category, expect further and faster depreciation rates in the months ahead. He explains why here:

https://youtu.be/Dzd3SHHNp5E

Nice video....thanks for posting.

There dark clouds starting to build....did you know that there was a 100% increase in people
working 2 jobs in the last few months.......the retired on fixed incomes are really starting to suffer.