In 2022, Zillow Predicts That Phoenix housing market will climb ANOTHER 20%?! (Maricopa: pricing, stats)

[asufan]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

These false bottoms aren't being figured into my predictions.......I think the real bottom will be under 20,000 vs being above it.

I think there is a huge amount of manipulation going on to try and prop up the market prior to the midterms that will stop afterwards.......I expect it to then start getting very ugly.

So it sounds like you're actually predicting a 40%+ drop from where we are today, not 20-30% based on those numbers. I agree the market never goes straight down to the bottom without some upward movement, that's why there's always money to be made and trying to simply take it all out and predict a bottom to put it all back in isn't the best strategy.

[asufan]

I will also remain on record that I don't see the market going THAT low, but I certainly think it could decline 15-20% in the next 12 months, which would provide another good entry point. As someone about to turn 48 with a longer investment horizon than someone nearing retirement, I'm actually hoping for another good entry point and more individual bargains.

[jdahunt]

Originally Posted by asufan

So it sounds like you're actually predicting a 40%+ drop from where we are today, not 20-30% based on those numbers. I agree the market never goes straight down to the bottom without some upward movement, that's why there's always money to be made and trying to simply take it all out and predict a bottom to put it all back in isn't the best strategy.

Those that try to do what you say at some point get trapped with a sudden unexpected drop and their only choice is to leave it and risk it going lower or to sell and take a significant loss.

[jdahunt]

Originally Posted by asufan

So it sounds like you're actually predicting a 40%+ drop from where we are today, not 20-30% based on those numbers. I agree the market never goes straight down to the bottom without some upward movement, that's why there's always money to be made and trying to simply take it all out and predict a bottom to put it all back in isn't the best strategy.

Once again I never said I didn't have any investments......those are your words.

Every month my statements set a new high and I'm happy with that.......once we hit bottom and we are far from that.........I'll switch....won't get the exact bottom but I don't need to.

I'm very glad to have unloaded the properties that I did.......I don't expect to be buying any more in Phoenix for 3-4 years.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

Once again I never said I didn't have any investments......those are your words.

Every month my statements set a new high and I'm happy with that.......once we hit bottom and we are far from that.........I'll switch....won't get the exact bottom but I don't need to.

I'm very glad to have unloaded the properties that I did.......I don't expect to be buying any more in Phoenix for 3-4 years.

My bad, when you said you took your money out of the market at the exact top and were waiting for the 50% drop to put it back in, I took you at your word.

[jdahunt]

Originally Posted by asufan

My bad, when you said you took your money out of the market at the exact top and were waiting for the 50% drop to put it back in, I took you at your word.

Never said I took my money out at the exact top....once again those are your words....mine were that I took money out of the market last year and thankful that I did.

I didn't need to take money out at the peak and don't need to get back in at the bottom......just didn't see a need to ride it all the way down and back up again.

High inflation is a horrible beast and what we are seeing today is just the beginning......there is going to be so much more pain.....in our spending we have built in obligations now that is not going to allow the Fed to get a grasp on inflation just by raising rates....they will try but I expect they will fail.

The question then becomes, what next......I expect they will have to turn to austerity measures...the likes we have never seen before....there are some claiming we are running out of diesel fuel...that would have devastating effects.....also there is a likelyhood of the railroad going on strike...that has still not been solved contrary to public statements.

The entire world is entering into a recession......the US is not going to be shielded from that.

[Potential_Landlord]

I sincerely hope that a lot of s/t rentals will default and get sold to families again. They have become a nuisance if not cancer in Arizona.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

I sincerely hope that a lot of s/t rentals will default and get sold to families again. They have become a nuisance if not cancer in Arizona.

What is an s/t rental???

[WanderingRebel]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

What is an s/t rental???

short-term rental (AirBNB)

[john3232]

I follow Rick McHone for updates on the local housing market. Caitlin McKeague is good as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlX1ApbulBU&t=278s