In 2022, Zillow Predicts That Phoenix housing market will climb ANOTHER 20%?! (Mesa: homes, neighborhood)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Regarding Zillow and the 20% increase. Assuming this happens a 4bed/2 bath 2100 plus sq ft home in Gilbert/Chandler will reach 600k.
In 2015 my mother moved from San Diego (Hillcrest and next to University Heights) to Mesa.
A 4 bed/2 bath home maybe 1700 sq ft located across the street from the apartments where my mother lived was remodeled and sold for 715k. The area isn't any safer than East Mesa where I live nor are the schools any better. My guess is today that home has passed the 1 million mark.
In 2022 I don't think there's much under 800k in SD this size: 4bed/2 bath 2000 sq ft. And if you do find a home in the 600-700k range the schools likely won't be very good and the neighborhood sketchy.
Move to AZ and you get the blistering summers but.... 600k buys a very nice home in a safe area of Tempe, Chandler or Gilbert with good public schools.
Regarding Zillow and the 20% increase. Assuming this happens a 4bed/2 bath 2100 plus sq ft home in Gilbert/Chandler will reach 600k.
In 2015 my mother moved from San Diego (Hillcrest and next to University Heights) to Mesa.
A 4 bed/2 bath home maybe 1700 sq ft located across the street from the apartments where my mother lived was remodeled and sold for 715k. The area isn't any safer than East Mesa where I live nor are the schools any better. My guess is today that home has passed the 1 million mark.
In 2022 I don't think there's much under 800k in SD this size: 4bed/2 bath 2000 sq ft. And if you do find a home in the 600-700k range the schools likely won't be very good and the neighborhood sketchy.
Move to AZ and you get the blistering summers but.... 600k buys a very nice home in a safe area of Tempe, Chandler or Gilbert with good public schools.
Zillow has the average house price in San Diego at $918K and they have Phoenix at $396k. I love SD and was there last week but after adding all of the costs of living there, not really a bargain.
Just my opinion but I think SD is more likely to have a crashing housing market than Phoenix if we go into a recession in the next year.
When we look at municipal tax records across the world which in some cases survived 1000+ years, we most often find 3-4 families owning virtually all real estate in a given town or city. This is regardless of country or political system. As long as there is no cataclysmic event like the Black Death or the town gets razed to the ground by warfare. In our case the perception is distorted by WW2 which forced massive equalization via high taxes on rich, labor union strength, mass conscriptions of workers making them rare etc. But since V-Day 1945, first slowly then ever faster these effects are waning. I'm afraid we are headed to the historical norm. You are spot-on about taxation rules shifting in favor of the super-rich. That's only a part of the Great Shift moving RE ownership from masses to elites, but certainly important. Even though I personally enjoy homeownership a lot, and wish it for everyone. I'm afraid for our grandchildren it will be a pipe dream. What we are seeing in Phoenix right now is the perfect example. Massive shifts in SFH ownership towards funds, massive increase of tenant population with no hope to ever achieve homeownership. I wish I had a better solution at hand.
Much of it still depends on an individual's income, and most importantly: money management skills. I know two young women in the service industry who scrimped & saved, and were able to put down payments on places of their own recently. Granted, they're small places, but owning a small stucco box is still better than renting long term. On the other hand, there are plenty of others with good careers and sufficient incomes who couldn't begin to afford home ownership. The reason: their frivolous spending habits & lack of financial smarts. I'm sure you're correct that ownership will be nothing more than a dream for many, but a lot of it is their own doing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler
Zillow has the average house price in San Diego at $918K and they have Phoenix at $396k. I love SD and was there last week but after adding all of the costs of living there, not really a bargain.
Just my opinion but I think SD is more likely to have a crashing housing market than Phoenix if we go into a recession in the next year.
Hard to say at this point. Phoenix was hit pretty hard during the last major downturn (2008), and that was during the time when home prices were still on the affordable side compared to many other metros. San Diego's downfall is economic stagnation. The growth rate has slowed significantly, and it's largely due to the high cost of living along with overall wages being pretty mediocre.
Much of it still depends on an individual's income, and most importantly: money management skills. I know two young women in the service industry who scrimped & saved, and were able to put down payments on places of their own recently. Granted, they're small places, but owning a small stucco box is still better than renting long term. On the other hand, there are plenty of others with good careers and sufficient incomes who couldn't begin to afford home ownership. The reason: their frivolous spending habits & lack of financial smarts. I'm sure you're correct that ownership will be nothing more than a dream for many, but a lot of it is their own doing.
100 - I will always stress my own ability and resourcefulness regardless of circumstances. As I said with assets you always get volatility. Make that work for you. 2027-28 will probably be good time to buy distressed properties, even if not as great as 2010. I'll be active
100 - I will always stress my own ability and resourcefulness regardless of circumstances. As I said with assets you always get volatility. Make that work for you. 2027-28 will probably be good time to buy distressed properties, even if not as great as 2010. I'll be active
I just hope we don't go into another 2008 styled recession (or worse). Lots of new developments were planned around that time, then abruptly scrapped. A good part of it was poor planning, but recessions are never good, except for those holding out to buy during a slumped period. Downtown Phoenix is finally starting to look & feel more like a real downtown compared to what it was 10 or 20 years ago, and more development is planned ... however, any significant economic downturn could cause a major setback.
I just hope we don't go into another 2008 styled recession (or worse). Lots of new developments were planned around that time, then abruptly scrapped. A good part of it was poor planning, but recessions are never good, except for those holding out to buy during a slumped period. Downtown Phoenix is finally starting to look & feel more like a real downtown compared to what it was 10 or 20 years ago, and more development is planned ... however, any significant economic downturn could cause a major setback.
Phoenix was and is more of a boom-bust cycle metro than say LA because we have virtually no land or regulatory restrictions for new builds comparatively. There is no way around this. Which btw is much better than making and keeping a place more and more unaffordable (and we have enough of that going on right now). However, the 2006-10 RE bust was exceptional and will not repeat for decades. For the next downturn I'm looking at around 10% nominal decrease, and with higher inflation maybe 25-30% real decrease. (The "real" part does not really hurt.) But we are not at the top yet and may see significant increases until then. Remember when zippyman told stories about the crazy loans that were made 2002-07 where specuvestors could buy 50 homes and mark all as "owner occupied"... that is not happening this time around, fortunately. Just my opinion of course.
Phoenix was and is more of a boom-bust cycle metro than say LA because we have virtually no land or regulatory restrictions for new builds comparatively. There is no way around this. Which btw is much better than making and keeping a place more and more unaffordable (and we have enough of that going on right now). However, the 2006-10 RE bust was exceptional and will not repeat for decades. For the next downturn I'm looking at around 10% nominal decrease, and with higher inflation maybe 25-30% real decrease. (The "real" part does not really hurt.) But we are not at the top yet and may see significant increases until then. Remember when zippyman told stories about the crazy loans that were made 2002-07 where specuvestors could buy 50 homes and mark all as "owner occupied"... that is not happening this time around, fortunately. Just my opinion of course.
I got four "no doc" loans (Fannie Mae) in 2005. I was living abroad but my credit score was excellent. Plus I was willing to put down a 35% down payment.
But in 2010 I couldn't get a loan despite having an 800 credit score and a 25% down payment. I remember getting upset with a lender, "I'm probably the only person who bought in 2005 and didn't default and I don't qualify?" No. I didn't qualify because of stringent employment verification. I was working overseas and the lender couldn't contact my employer(s) before closing.
Last year I had renters in Chandler who bought a new build in Queen Creek. They sweated it out until the closing date. The lender checked and then checked again to make sure the couple was employed and their credit score hadn't suddenly dropped.
On the other hand should Fannie Mae decide to lower qualifications and an applicant with a 530 credit score, marginal income, and little or no down payment can buy a $400,000 home... well here comes 2005 again.
Here’s what that looked like in the context of the U.S. housing market in the first decade of the 21st century: The demand for housing was increasing thanks to lower interest rates on mortgages, prompting existing home prices to rise and more homes to be built. In such a competitive environment, mortgage lenders needed to find new ways to sign more loans. This habit injected what many would consider “easy money” into the housing market, which took several forms:
● Lenders signed off on bigger loans to more people than ever, without performing the necessary due diligence on applicants to check their credit history, income or other facts that would prove their ability to actually afford a mortgage.
● More lenders also started creating riskier types of loans. Adjustable-rate mortgages became more popular: These loans included very low interest rates for the first few years, but would then enter a variable rate period during which payments could skyrocket.
● Instances of mortgage fraud also increased during the bubble. Not only were lenders relaxing their loan underwriting standards to sign more borrowers, some were not providing accurate information on applications, or knowingly deceiving borrowers. https://onlinebusiness.northeastern....ousing-bubble/
● Instances of mortgage fraud also increased during the bubble. Not only were lenders relaxing their loan underwriting standards to sign more borrowers, some were not providing accurate information on applications, or knowingly deceiving borrowers.[/i] https://onlinebusiness.northeastern....ousing-bubble/
This largely contributed to not only the collapse, but why so many unqualified borrowers merely walked away from their responsibilities. The lending institutions shared some of the blame, but the ones who agreed to the terms of the loans should have known what they were getting into. Too many people expected an easy ride, and behaved like purchasing a home was a guaranteed right.
I bought a short sale in 2011 in which an owner (living in Cal. I believe) had stopped paying the mortgage. Once the renters realized the owner wasn't going to make repairs they stopped paying rent. They had been living rent free for almost a year. The deal was a complete mess. However, my RE agent was able to get rid of the renters after I agreed to reimburse them for a new hot water heater they bought and several minor repair costs. Next was the HOA which wanted several thousand dollars in unpaid dues and fines. Fortunately, I got them waved everything after taking over the property.
Nothing but hassles buying that house but what a steal.
...
I bought a short sale in 2011 in which an owner (living in Cal. I believe) had stopped paying the mortgage. Once the renters realized the owner wasn't going to make repairs they stopped paying rent. They had been living rent free for almost a year. The deal was a complete mess. However, my RE agent was able to get rid of the renters after I agreed to reimburse them for a new hot water heater they bought and several minor repair costs. Next was the HOA which wanted several thousand dollars in unpaid dues and fines. Fortunately, I got them waved everything after taking over the property.
Nothing but hassles buying that house but what a steal.
The recession situation also allowed other people to buy "investment" homes who probably shouldn't have. The place we're living in was sold for $145k in 2011. Similar places in this area are going for 400k-500k now. I'm sure these people were opportunists; some couple with a Canadian address who have the place run through this crappy property management company. They pick the cheapest options possible to update / fix things. Now, I don't want to immediately hate on that since there's been a string of crappy renters here apparently. But this also means they won't last long and it'll have to be done again sooner rather than later. And it's made even worse by them admitting that they've had a lot of crappy renters here that have abused the place, and yet, they won't pay to fix things that are falling apart. The front panel on 3 drawers in the kitchen have fallen off (all in the exact same spot). "Sorry, not in the lease, you have to fix it." Wait, you just said the place was abused before, but, I have to fix it?? And there are several other instances. "Sorry, we know it wasn't you that broke it, but, that's also not in the lease. So......"
Anyway, here's my biggest problem right now. The place came with pool maintenance already included. We've tested the pool properly and found that the calcium and cyanuric acid are triple what they should be. The pool gets horrible in the summer. We've asked the pool guy many times over the last couple of years that we'd like it drained, since there's no solution to too much calcium and CYA except water replacement. And when the levels are that bad, it essentially needs a drain. He finally said "Ok, I can ask them to do it, but, I'm not sure they're going to want to go for it. Getting the equipment i need to drain it, and then adding my start up chemicals all costs about $350."
Setting aside for the moment that these people have a massive amount of equity, they also just raised the rent for the next year by $500. The first month alone will pay for that, and then some.
(also convenient is that we've asked to be month to month after each year ends, and it was always "sorry, we don't do that." But suddenly, this current term that is starting goes month to month at the end. Looking at the last two years, gee I wonder why! Opportunity to raise it at a moment's notice.)
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
- I will always stress my own ability and resourcefulness regardless of circumstances. As I said with assets you always get volatility. Make that work for you. 2027-28 will probably be good time to buy distressed properties, even if not as great as 2010. I'll be active 
