Phoenix Topping the List in Inflation (sales, home, to buy)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by SAN_Man

Go on Zillow, put a filter on for 900k - 1M in Scottsdale and there are tons of listings right now. Here's nice one with 3,600 square feet of living space. How much space would a retired couple need??
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1.../8037861_zpid/


Now go and look up Oakland Hills...I see 3 listings in the 900k-1M with square footage ranging from 1,000 to 1,600. Scottsdale is still a great deal with many options for a Californian looking to sell here.

You are cherry-picking. If you KNEW he lived in Oakland Hills, that's one thing. But you didn't. I gave you the cost per square foot in both cities. It's simply not "70% more expensive in Oakland". It's about 40% more $$'s. Because it's Oakland.

As I said, a "million-dollar home" used to mean something special. In 2022 and in much of Scottsdale, it really isn't. But yea, I can game the system in my favor too. I too can cherry-pick the most expensive view and neighborhood in Scottsdale and show you that a 1500 square footer runs $1.6M if I wanted to on an 8000 square foot lot. That's 2100 square feet LESS than your example. Pound for pound, Scottsdale is officially expensive. And it's even more spendy in Oakland. For that matter, I can show you a lot more expensive homes than 1.7M in Oakland Hills for a 1500 square footer. Just give me a view and the lot is worth more than that. So my only point was that it is not 70% more expensive.

[SAN_Man]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

You are cherry-picking. If you KNEW he lived in Oakland Hills, that's one thing. But you didn't. I gave you the cost per square foot in both cities. It's simply not "70% more expensive in Oakland". It's about 40% more $$'s. Because it's Oakland.

As I said, a "million-dollar home" used to mean something special. In 2022 and in much of Scottsdale, it really isn't. But yea, I can game the system in my favor too. I too can cherry-pick the most expensive view and neighborhood in Scottsdale and show you that a 1500 square footer runs $1.6M if I wanted to on an 8000 square foot lot. That's 2100 square feet LESS than your example. Pound for pound, Scottsdale is officially expensive. And it's even more spendy in Oakland. For that matter, I can show you a lot more expensive homes than 1.7M in Oakland Hills for a 1500 square footer. Just give me a view and the lot is worth more than that. So my only point was that it is not 70% more expensive.

I'm not cherry picking, I'm going along with the conversation. I'm referencing this post:

Originally Posted by john3232

Talked with a college buddy last night. He and his wife live in the Oakland hills. Their house is worth 1.7 million. My friend now works 100% remote from home. No need to live in Oakland or Cal anymore.

But where to go?

The deals here are long gone but... the Phx metro housing market is beginning to slow down.

I recommended keeping an eye on Tempe. I really like the upscale residential areas.

Again, I never said it was 70% more expensive, lol. Re-read the thread.

[SAN_Man]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

As I said, a "million-dollar home" used to mean something special. In 2022 and in much of Scottsdale, it really isn't. But yea, I can game the system in my favor too. I too can cherry-pick the most expensive view and neighborhood in Scottsdale and show you that a 1500 square footer runs $1.6M if I wanted to on an 8000 square foot lot. That's 2100 square feet LESS than your example. Pound for pound, Scottsdale is officially expensive. And it's even more spendy in Oakland. For that matter, I can show you a lot more expensive homes than 1.7M in Oakland Hills for a 1500 square footer. Just give me a view and the lot is worth more than that. So my only point was that it is not 70% more expensive.

Nobody said Scottsdale wasn't expensive, it's just much less expensive than the expensive places in CA and that's why it's still a deal to move to Scottsdale or Phoenix or anywhere else in Arizona. And that's why Californians are still buying places in AZ pushing your prices up even further

I heard a report on Friday, Metro Phoenix prices rose by 11%, San Diego rose by 10%. However, even though Phoenix prices are rising at the highest rate in the nation, it's still being left behind on a nominal basis by metros with higher valuations. A 10% rise in SD would be about 100K. An 11% rise in Phoenix would only be about 48K. That means that Phoenix is still very attractive to Californians looking to cash out and purchase a place in AZ.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by SAN_Man

I'm not cherry picking, I'm going along with the conversation. I'm referencing this post:




Again, I never said it was 70% more expensive, lol. Re-read the thread.

Well, you are right. He did say Oakland Hills.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by SAN_Man

Nobody said Scottsdale wasn't expensive, it's just much less expensive than the expensive places in CA and that's why it's still a deal to move to Scottsdale or Phoenix or anywhere else in Arizona. And that's why Californians are still buying places in AZ pushing your prices up even further

I heard a report on Friday, Metro Phoenix prices rose by 11%, San Diego rose by 10%. However, even though Phoenix prices are rising at the highest rate in the nation, it's still being left behind on a nominal basis by metros with higher valuations. A 10% rise in SD would be about 100K. An 11% rise in Phoenix would only be about 48K. That means that Phoenix is still very attractive to Californians looking to cash out and purchase a place in AZ.

We agree ^^.

[wilberry]

yep it still a good deal in Phoenix metro if you are in the top 20% income bracket !

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by wilberry

yep it still a good deal in Phoenix metro if you are in the top 20% income bracket !

The lastest coversations are related to "PHX is a good deal as compared to CA coastal cities". i.e. LA area and the Bay Area. PHX is no longer a deal. Shy of a meltdown, it's spendy specifically because of housing. And with inflation (the title of this thread), affordability is out of control for a lot of people. As in, the PHX affordability ship has sailed!

So yea, if you don't already own a home, you need a thicker wallet or come with equity in your pocket. But there are a ton of people that own a home that is not in the top 20% of income owners. As in, the overwhelming majority of people who are sitting in their PHX area homes are not in the top 20% of household incomes.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

You are mostly true. Realize when everything is paid off and you make $100K, you are living (semi-) large! Even a $24K in rent isn't a big deal if you are debt-free. There is a lot more that goes into what is "affordable" or who is or isn't "screwed".

IMO, most people are terrible with their finances! And, many more !!!!!!!!!!!!!! For some anecdotal evidence, my son is living with his fiancé in San Fran. They are in their residency making a "whopping" $130K together (Important: they are taxed as a single person without any write-offs so they are getting nailed). As in, slave labor for 4 years. But they knew that going into it. Their San Fran rent is around $4K a month. It's furnished and they were smart enough to look for a place furnished to not waste $$'s.

They drive one paid-off car that they bought for $12K pre-massive auto appreciation which is now worth about $15K. Keeping it real, I paid $8K as a graduation gift from medical school. So one of the two will bike or BART (public transit) for work. And again, keeping it real, they get a decent food allowance exclusively while at work. And they have the discipline to eat the same boring crap that they bring home to maximize their $$'s or stay for a learning session that serves a meal (resulting in more hours away from home).

They have old cell phones. Our son's Mac laptop is at least 8 years old and it is limping along. They buy their clothes at thrift stores, they don't eat out, their entertainment is parks and camping in tents, and they don't "vacation" unless they go out to a free, out-of-state seminar. Because they mastered basic personal finance 101, they are SAVING over a Grand a month.

Big picture, they know how to live below their means. That's the secret of not feeling "screwed" all the while they save $$. That's common sense for some, yet not for others. Combine that with the drive to get to the next level the skies the limit! Good things happen for a reason. For most people, life is a marathon. It's about paying your dues, pushing forward with your goal, and adapting when wrenches change your plan.

When my mother passed away (father died decades earlier) what money she had (roughly 200k) went to my sister. My brother and I basically received nothing but our mother explained her wishes before she passed away. And the both of us were good with that.

Our mother has always worried about our sister who has never been good with money. Yet, she earns a good living as a public school teacher and also teaches p/t as a college lecturer (evening classes.) The ex-husband always paid child support. I could never understand why she never had any money. Why she was always broke. The house was bought in 1988 for roughly 85k and come 2019 she was still paying off the loan.

O.k. after getting the 200k she paid off the 32k left on her mortgage. 15k went towards remodeling the kitchen. 10% of the 200k (or whatever the %) I suspect went to her church. Fine. There's still plenty of money left over for a new roof when the time comes or a new car. But she can't keep spending the money done. She's now blowing 5-7 grand this summer on a vacation.

I've told her I have no problem with her getting the 200k or "rainy day" fund. However, when it's gone don't come looking to me for money. The Bank of Mom is close and the Bank of John...is for his wife only.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by wilberry

remember Occupy Wall street ? , protest changes nothing , politicians change nothing

You're absolutely correct. So regarding Wall Street, the best advice I can offer is: if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. The Dow has dropped over 15% since earlier in the year, and some sectors have taken a bigger hit. Now is the time to invest if you haven't already. Buy low, sell high. If you prefer a more conservative approach, find some reliable mutual finds, and buy & hold to build up your portfolio.

[Potential_Landlord]

The sad reality of why inflation is so high here in Phoenix has a lot to do with California NIMVY-ism. This prevents and affordable housing from being built there - if any new built is permitted at all. Not unusual for local governments (aka local NIMBYments) to call whole areas wildlife refuges to prevent any building at all. This results in exorbitant prices and rents. This creates the flight to Phoenix, Vegas etc. and drives up prices and rents here. The WFH ability of many California residents sealed the deal for us. They ruthlessly drive out 15% of our native Phoenix population. California policies really screw us up badly, and particularly the most vulnerable.