Looks like Phoenix home prices may be finally going down folks. (Tucson: short sale, loan)

[jdahunt]

Originally Posted by Greenvalleyfan

Thank you! I appreciate that! I'm actually 64 and retired 3 yrs ago.
And, a wise man once told me it's later than you think.

So are you fully retired or do you have something on the side?

I employ a few "retirees" as after a year or so they need something to do and compared to todays workers they are freaking geniuses....lol.....I don't see myself ever retiring as I 100% enjoy what I do....well I do take the weekends off...

With this inflation what percentage of retires in Phoenix do you think have had to return to work?

[Greenvalleyfan]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

So are you fully retired or do you have something on the side?

I employ a few "retirees" as after a year or so they need something to do and compared to todays workers they are freaking geniuses....lol.....I don't see myself ever retiring as I 100% enjoy what I do....well I do take the weekends off...

With this inflation what percentage of retires in Phoenix do you think have had to return to work?

Yep, fully retired. But, you are correct about needing something to do. I'm busy trying to move to Arizona right now, but that will change. I wasn't bored until covid lock down. I was traveling all the time and that's how I found Arizona. I bought a beautiful lot during covid, and started building in the middle of supply chain problems.
A 90 day construction loan application turned into 7 months. I started the build using my banked cash during application, but started sweating after a couple of hundred grand into the project, and no construction loan. Put my house up for sale on the eastcoast a month ago, it sold with multiple offers in 13 days. The first week the house was for sale, construction loan finally approved. Lol I'll be in Arizona at the end of the month in a rental so I can oversee the project. I've got about 6 months to go before completion. And, I have all the cash from sale of home to cover build. I did lose sleep over this one. But I do have a steady income coming in regardless.

Regarding retirees having to return to work, they shouldn't If they planned correctly. I took my stock market money and cashed in and put it in an annuity. I knew if I lost it, I didn't have the time at my age to get it back. And, I have a pension. The pension and annuity give me enough cash to do what I want. I'm happy!

I've had people tell me I'm lucky, but luck has nothing to do with it. Proper planning has everything to do with it.

[jdahunt]

Fantastic......we are making the move ourselves the 1st of October.

I'm really not going to miss the winters....lol

[Greenvalleyfan]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

Fantastic......we are making the move ourselves the 1st of October.

I'm really not going to miss the winters....lol

No, I won't miss the winters neither. Good luck on your move!

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

So are you fully retired or do you have something on the side?

I employ a few "retirees" as after a year or so they need something to do and compared to todays workers they are freaking geniuses....lol.....I don't see myself ever retiring as I 100% enjoy what I do....well I do take the weekends off...

With this inflation what percentage of retires in Phoenix do you think have had to return to work?

I'm in the same boat. I love what I do. So long as I can be an order-taker and make more money than I need for (IMO) barely working, why not? I get to work with incredibly accomplished people. Like CEO's, physicians (some "famous"), business owners, and accomplished people inside of their field. Nearly all are technical (EE, CE, ME, etc) and 99.9% male. As a quick example, I have a customer who is a top person at the FBI, economists at the World Bank as well as the FED, land developers in Manhattan, former CEO's of several household company names, director of engineering at _______ company, etc, etc, etc. As you might guess, the conversations are fascinating. Now my wife gets the burden of some paperwork and she despises it while missing out on those interesting conversations. She has about 5-7 hours a week of paperwork and two 40 hours weeks at tax time. She wants to retire now! Especially after seeing neighbors that have unplugged and the perception of a carefree life. But they paid their dues by working their life away for decades while we have been coasting for a decade.

To your point with the 40% loss of net worth (inflation). Without a gravy 100% pension like a CA police, I don't feel comfortable retiring anyways. I felt much better two short years ago. Lately, I've been hearing a few people changing their tune about "going back to work if the ideal gig came up", etc. They don't explain why, but I think inflation and the market have everything to do with it.

I like to compare notes as to what the magical number in assets is to retire. Of course, it heavily depends on your age until social security and medicare kick in and if you have a worthy pension. Pre-inflation, I would put the number at around $2.5M and no pension of social security. As in, everything is paid for and you have $2.5M as the minimum point. And you aren't renting. So you are blowing $100K of your savings per year waiting for your pension or social security to kick in. That amount assumes you cash in the retirement funds that you haven't paid your taxes on yet. Because you need to convert that number to an after-tax amount. Because of inflation, I think we need to bump that up by 40% now or closer to $3.5M. Now there is "retirement" (existing) and retirement (living at the same standards). One definition is penny-pinching while the other is taking 1st class vacations, and doing what you want to do while you are working. If you just want to exist, well, millions are living off of their social security staring at their TV and "retired". No thanks. I have some friends who are convinced the number is $6M+. I guess they plan on living to their fullest until age 100 or they want to spend like drunken sailors. I digress...

Back to the topic at hand. Read what Tom Ruff has to say about the ultra-fast PHX housing correction here https://armls.com/docs/2022-July-STAT.pdf In 8 short months, the PHX housing market has radically changed. It's interesting to hear him talk about how little people knew during the Great Recession. And how now, there is an abundant amount of data.

John Wake posted about all of this data as follows:
"We have zillions more data but prices went up even faster this time.

Apparently, more information allowed more herding, imitation, inertia, irrational exuberance, momentum, over-extrapolation of past price trends, and their feedback loops."

I think he is right. Groupthink is a powerful phenomenon. I assume if the masses assume PHX area home pricing is going to drop, that can accelerate things in the other direction too.

[Nasudesu]

The house I have been watching finally went pending after 120 days at $890K. Came down from $1240K. This clears out the similar house my family will be putting up within a month.

btw my husband and I are both federal retirees retired young. We live on our pension (his is more as I am on different pension system), social security and rental incomes. Our homes are fullly paid and we do not touch our investments much. But, we do not want to take this with us so trying to enjoy our life together while we can. I do not think we can spend it all. Our one family will get much of it with lots going to good causes first. His income is so high that when all said and done, our portion going to him will seem small in twenty years or so.

[jdahunt]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Back to the topic at hand. Read what Tom Ruff has to say about the ultra-fast PHX housing correction here https://armls.com/docs/2022-July-STAT.pdf In 8 short months, the PHX housing market has radically changed. It's interesting to hear him talk about how little people knew during the Great Recession. And how now, there is an abundant amount of data.

John Wake posted about all of this data as follows:
"We have zillions more data but prices went up even faster this time.

Apparently, more information allowed more herding, imitation, inertia, irrational exuberance, momentum, over-extrapolation of past price trends, and their feedback loops."

I think he is right. Groupthink is a powerful phenomenon. I assume if the masses assume PHX area home pricing is going to drop, that can accelerate things in the other direction too.

That is a very nice and comprehensive report put out by Tom Ruff.......thanks for sharing.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Nasudesu

The house I have been watching finally went pending after 120 days at $890K. Came down from $1240K. This clears out the similar house my family will be putting up within a month.

btw my husband and I are both federal retirees retired young. We live on our pension (his is more as I am on different pension system), social security and rental incomes. Our homes are fullly paid and we do not touch our investments much. But, we do not want to take this with us so trying to enjoy our life together while we can. I do not think we can spend it all. Our one family will get much of it with lots going to good causes first. His income is so high that when all said and done, our portion going to him will seem small in twenty years or so.

Congrats. That much be a great feeling (the two highlighted topics)!

Is the $890K home in PHX area or in the Bay Area? What town?

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Some more info from John Wake. August sale values were just announced. We dropped $10K per month (x3 months in a row). The slope is still pointing downward. If it continues until November, we will be back down to what it was about a year ago. Again, there are many markets. What's going on in Fountain Hills (holding up pretty well and a seller's market) is going to be a lot different than in Buckeye (clearly a buyer's market).


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tu_ISkbRf_A

[Nasudesu]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Congrats. That much be a great feeling (the two highlighted topics)!

Is the $890K home in PHX area or in the Bay Area? What town?

Thank you. Chandler. He accepted a position with UCI Health. I have lived in Tucson in my youth as a military brat so I’ve always liked AZ and my husband spent his summer in Bullhead City so he also care for AZ. He is actually sad we will not be visiting AZ as often who knows we may still buy a smaller place to visit.