Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
yes, cmist, in a perfect world...blah, blah, blah.....
Arizona real estate has, in part, been speculative for many decades...very transient, too....the only way to avoid these flippers/investors/capitalists would be, I think, to move to an older, stable inner-city 'hood where prices didn't overly-spike and then overly-plunge...
is your place in one of these relatively new suburban cookie-cutter subdivisions?....just asking!
I'm not complaining or asking for a perfect world. It was in response to someone who stated they prefer a capitalist to a bank owned neglected home.
I was trying to explain that in many cases those "capitalists" adolpho prefers jack up the price and the house lingers longer than a bank owned home might.
I have no expectations of avoiding them and ultimately it doesn't bother me. I have sold my own investment properties and profited too but I did it realistically and sold them quickly.
My only purpose was to state my preference since Adolpho stated his and wanted to offer a differing point of view.
If you are serious about investing in Phoenix, and want to know what is really happening in the market, then take my advice and subscribe to the Cromford Report. I have no relationship with the company, other than I use their services and understand the value. You may be able to get a trial subscription to study to see if it works for you.
Tom Ruff and Mike Orr, the owners, are highly respected in the AZ real estate industry. They have a commentary within the report that is always substantiated by the statistics. They are well worth reading.
Their statistics come from the ARMLS and Court House records. You can get Averages or Medians. Just about any breakdown of statistical information is available so that you can see the trends. By looking at the historical trends and tying them into today you will see trends building long before you would see them if you were watching a couple of houses down the street.
You can get information broken down by city, or zip code. Want to know the number of active listings, solds, pendings, price per square foot, and other information for zip code 85212 for the past few years, year by year, month by month, or week by week; you got it. Same info for Chandler; you got it.
Below is the list of stats that are shown on one snapshot. A snapshot can be chosen for any desired location or type. And the snapshot is just one type of stat page available. It would take me an hour to write down all the types of stats that are available.
The snapshot below shows the stats for Pre-foreclosure/Shortsales Greater Phoenix Area All types of residences. I'm only writing the row names, not the numbers:
Active
Pending
Sales per month
Sales per year
Days on Market - Monthly sales
Days on Maket - Active listings
Days inventory
Months supply
Active listings $/sf
Pending sales $/sf
Monthly sales $/sf
Annual sales $/sf
Average sales price %list
Listing success rate
Dollar volume monthly sales
Dollar volume annual sales
Average price monthly sales
Average price annual sales
Median price monthly sales
Median price annual sales
Average $/sf monthly sales
Average $/sf annual sales
Active list price $/sf premium
Contract ratio
If you learn how to use the available information it will be invaluable to you in making buying and selling decisions because you'll know what's happening in the area in which you choose to work; what the trends are; and be able to make an educated guess as to what will happen in the future.
The other piece of advice is to join AZREIA. There you can network with other investors who share common goals and information.
My brother is a real estate agent and can run these reports straight from ARMLS. If a person is working with a realtor, isn't it more beneficial to comp whatever purchase you are considering on a case by case basis? Based on the specific subdivision and neighboring ones with similar homes?
As an example, the average price of the city/suburb means pretty much nothing if the home you are looking at is overpriced by $50,000 for that specific neighborhood.
I think Cromford can be interesting, but its not specific enough to help you make a decision on a single home. For that you need a realtor. The worst thing you could do is go meet up with some home seller and present a contract on your own trying to explain that their home isn't worth what they think because the "Cromford Report" says the average price for Gilbert is less than their asking price. You would pretty much look like a jackass.
I could also do without their commentaries, especially when they make remarks like we hit bottom which requires that you ignore all homes over 200K to make that statement true.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bill
For the OP.
If you are serious about investing in Phoenix, and want to know what is really happening in the market, then take my advice and subscribe to the Cromford Report. I have no relationship with the company, other than I use their services and understand the value. You may be able to get a trial subscription to study to see if it works for you.
Tom Ruff and Mike Orr, the owners, are highly respected in the AZ real estate industry. They have a commentary within the report that is always substantiated by the statistics. They are well worth reading.
Their statistics come from the ARMLS and Court House records. You can get Averages or Medians. Just about any breakdown of statistical information is available so that you can see the trends. By looking at the historical trends and tying them into today you will see trends building long before you would see them if you were watching a couple of houses down the street.
You can get information broken down by city, or zip code. Want to know the number of active listings, solds, pendings, price per square foot, and other information for zip code 85212 for the past few years, year by year, month by month, or week by week; you got it. Same info for Chandler; you got it.
Below is the list of stats that are shown on one snapshot. A snapshot can be chosen for any desired location or type. And the snapshot is just one type of stat page available. It would take me an hour to write down all the types of stats that are available.
The snapshot below shows the stats for Pre-foreclosure/Shortsales Greater Phoenix Area All types of residences. I'm only writing the row names, not the numbers:
Active
Pending
Sales per month
Sales per year
Days on Market - Monthly sales
Days on Maket - Active listings
Days inventory
Months supply
Active listings $/sf
Pending sales $/sf
Monthly sales $/sf
Annual sales $/sf
Average sales price %list
Listing success rate
Dollar volume monthly sales
Dollar volume annual sales
Average price monthly sales
Average price annual sales
Median price monthly sales
Median price annual sales
Average $/sf monthly sales
Average $/sf annual sales
Active list price $/sf premium
Contract ratio
If you learn how to use the available information it will be invaluable to you in making buying and selling decisions because you'll know what's happening in the area in which you choose to work; what the trends are; and be able to make an educated guess as to what will happen in the future.
The other piece of advice is to join AZREIA. There you can network with other investors who share common goals and information.
My brother is a real estate agent and can run these reports straight from ARMLS....
I think Cromford can be interesting, but its not specific enough to help you make a decision on a single home. For that you need a realtor....
Then your brother also has free access to the Cromford Report as a benefit of ARMLS. It's meant to be used in conjunction with the MLS, not just by itself. Most of the Cromford data they use for reports comes direct from the MLS. An agent just using the MLS would be at a serious disadvantage to those using both the MLS and the Cromford Report.
As Captain Bill explained, it's a great way to get a feel for different areas and trends. Then you can focus on specific homes in the MLS.
1) Got cold 2) moving to Phoenix with no job 3) want to flip houses.
Wow, how'd we get so lucky.
We're low on drug dealers too.
1) Read Thread 2) provided uninteresting response 3) provided no usefull information to thread
Wow , how'd we get so lucky
Curious as to the usefull contribution your occupation makes to Phoenix!
On a positive note - thanks for all the other helpfull responses especially Captian Bill. I posted this thread to find out about current market conditions and with anticipation of some responses such as the last one. Seems investors evoke hostile reactions from some people. Not really sure why - we buy run down houses - improve them and the surrounding neighborhood - employ contractors, realtors, title agents, loan officers, lawyers ect.., - sell the houses quickly, taking vacant properties off the market and stablizing the overall real estate market. I guess some people choose to see the negative side of everything!
From your responses - I'am getting the sense the market under $200k is very active (multiple offers) and over $500k still very slow. Wondering how strong is the $200k to $400k market. It also appears that prices are still slowly dropping -mostly in higher priced homes.
Thanks for the helpful information!
Beena - not everyone needs a job some of us own a business.
My brother is a real estate agent and can run these reports straight from ARMLS. If a person is working with a realtor, isn't it more beneficial to comp whatever purchase you are considering on a case by case basis? Based on the specific subdivision and neighboring ones with similar homes?
As an example, the average price of the city/suburb means pretty much nothing if the home you are looking at is overpriced by $50,000 for that specific neighborhood.
Just as a point of clarification, the Cromford Report is not accessed directly through ARMLS. ARMLS is providing a free subscription to realtors through Dec 2010. One still has to go to CR to set up the account and sign in.
Investors who are not realtors can get a paid subscription directly with CR, and it is valuable business expense. The realtor they use would naturally help them with the comps through ARMLS when a house is being considered.
You are absolutely correct --- one must comp the community for any house they're considering. That goes hand in hand with knowing the metropolitan market, the city market, and what is going on in the ecomony. If the general market in a given price range in a specific area is still declining, then one may decide to not buy yet.
First the decision must be made on whether it is time to jump into the market in a given price range, in a given city/zip code, and metropolitan area. That is where knowing what's happening in the economy, and what is happening with the sales, inventory and price trends in the area comes in.
When one learns how to use the mountain of data available in the Cromford Report, they will have a much better idea of whether to buy or sell.
That's most likely the reason that ARMLS elected to make the CR available to realtors for an extended free trial period. I was a subscriber to CR prior to ARMLS offering the free trial, and CR refunded my unused balance. That was good. They didn't have to do that.
My brother is a real estate agent and can run these reports straight from ARMLS. If a person is working with a realtor, isn't it more beneficial to comp whatever purchase you are considering on a case by case basis? Based on the specific subdivision and neighboring ones with similar homes?
As an example, the average price of the city/suburb means pretty much nothing if the home you are looking at is overpriced by $50,000 for that specific neighborhood.
I think Cromford can be interesting, but its not specific enough to help you make a decision on a single home. For that you need a realtor. The worst thing you could do is go meet up with some home seller and present a contract on your own trying to explain that their home isn't worth what they think because the "Cromford Report" says the average price for Gilbert is less than their asking price. You would pretty much look like a jackass.
I could also do without their commentaries, especially when they make remarks like we hit bottom which requires that you ignore all homes over 200K to make that statement true.
Right, but 99.99% of Realtors don't know how to gather this information on their own. It's all there on the MLS, if you just know the right boxes to check. I'm not just talking about CMA reports either, there's all kinds of cool stuff available on MLS that people just don't know how to find.
[quote=Boomerbiker;12333173]1)
From your responses - I'am getting the sense the market under $200k is very active (multiple offers) and over $500k still very slow. Wondering how strong is the $200k to $400k market. It also appears that prices are still slowly dropping -mostly in higher priced homes.
quote]
The biggest market is sub $150k. The $200 market is strong, and up to $300 is pretty good in most cities.
One of my current projects that's almost complete will go on the market for around $260. Haven't quite determined the price.
It's in Seville, a Gilbert golf course community, and my competition is the new builds, so I had to put really nice upgrades in, like polished travertine floors with Versailes pattern and a round medallian in the foyer; plus porcelain tile shower walls and tile wainscotting in the baths; and much more. We're putting about $35k in it.
My price has to be less than the new build with the same upgrades, and it will be. And I'll have to have it staged, like the new build models.
Over $300 is slower and I don't get into that market. For me, $400 is out of the question right now unless it's a steal and I can sell it for a steal.
Just as many sellers are unrealistic in their list price, many buyers are unrealistic in their thinking also.
Many buyers consider all $500k homes to be the same and think they should sell in the 200-300 range. They don't take into consideration the difference between a $500k tract home and a $500k custom home with amenities that cost much much more than the tract home.
Also, buyers are thinking that they will always get a better deal with a short sale than from a regular seller; and that is not always the case.
Getting above the conforming mortgage rate makes it more difficult for a buyer to get a mortgage today, so that is another reason for me not getting into the $400k range.
Right, but 99.99% of Realtors don't know how to gather this information on their own. It's all there on the MLS, if you just know the right boxes to check. I'm not just talking about CMA reports either, there's all kinds of cool stuff available on MLS that people just don't know how to find.
The OP is not a realtor, and he needs information that will help answer his questions.
I would disagree that 99.99% of realtors don't know how to gather this information on their own. The information on Cromford is taken from the MLS and some county reports and compiled into easily located and interpreted graphs.
Getting historical valley wide; city; zip code; price; inventory; sales data from the mls is at best cumbersum and time consuming.
About the only data that I use the mls for anymore is to make comp reports.
To find the same thing on the mls that is on the Cromford Report would take many hours and a software program like Cromford's to display the data in a logical form. If it were so easy on the mls, then there would have been no need for ARMLS to partner with the Cromford Report.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
