U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Arizona > Phoenix area
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 04-29-2010, 01:09 PM
 
Location: Casa Grande, AZ (May 08)
1,673 posts, read 3,805,852 times
Reputation: 1389

Advertisements

Was a toss up between posting this here or the Real Estate section, but I like the local inputs better, so here I go.

As I ve posted before, I ve been following my very local housing market for a couple years now (just my zip code which covers most of Casa Grande - but CG seems to pretty much mirror the activity of the hard hit areas). In that time sales and listings have been AMAZINGLY constant with very little volatility.

What I mean is that in that time there has been about 100 houses selling every month in all that time, but by the same token about 100 new ones getting listed every month so the "available inventory" has hovered between 300 and 340 houses that entire time.

Well, today we are at 277 houses for sale! By far the lowest inventory I ve seen in the last two years. It has been dropping dramatically this month, even with new homes still being added every day.

Obviously this has alot to do with the Tax Credit and the low mortgage rates and pricing (which has been very slowly inching up as I ve shown in other posts).

SO, now we will see...the credit ends tomorrow, the FED is not buying any more mortgages (although they are still able to control things a bit by not selling any of the mortgages they have).

Did the banks push out any "extra" of this supposed shadow inventory ahead of the tax credit which will keep inventory low now, or will the impending doom of more foreclosures that some have predicted start to happen now that the buyers with any interest have been moved forward in order to take advantage of the credit.

Will be interesting to see.....
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 04-29-2010, 01:32 PM
 
380 posts, read 970,332 times
Reputation: 198
CG may have actually bottomed last April or so. Any asset management that I have seen by the banks has been a failure compared to them simply auctioning off the house from the start. They sit, they get vandalized/stripped, and after a lot more fees are paid; they take less.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-29-2010, 02:01 PM
 
Location: Living on the Coast in Oxnard CA
16,276 posts, read 28,819,780 times
Reputation: 21721
I am thinking, Hoping really, that prices are driven down further with the end of the government incentive. I would like to see a market that is not propped up by the Government and relies on market forces. When people are buying to get an incentive does that show where the market really is? When an incentive is offered can't a seller hold the price up a little with the knowledge that the buyer may still buy because they have this fear of loss if they don't buy now?

With less assistance sellers such as the banks and others may have to see how those in the market for a home will react when an incentive is off the table. If the sales numbers continue then great, the bottom may have be here. If the sales decline then we know that the bottom may not have arrived as of yet. What I want to see is a factual market trend and not a trend based on Government assistance or one made up of investors swooping into buy low priced homes.

Are their numbers within the CG sales figures that show if a sold home is owner occupied or investor purchased? That would be a factor as well to show if this market is back on track or at least driven by end users and not someone that is looking to invest and rent or hold and sell when things improve.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-29-2010, 02:10 PM
 
Location: Casa Grande, AZ (May 08)
1,673 posts, read 3,805,852 times
Reputation: 1389
Soon2B,

Yep, your questions are good ones (except I am definetely not HOPING prices will come down!) and that is what we will have to wait and see. My guess is we will almost surely see some drop off in sales over the next couple of months, similar to the "cash for clunkers", but maybe home sales will react similarly as cars have and continue the upward trend after the initial drop off after the credit. Granted, cars and homes are completely different markets...

As for specific figures for investor vs. owner occupied....I dont know how to get those...the only thing I can point to a little bit is the monthly ARMLS report (that I post here on C-D) shows the number os CASH buyers, which are likely investors. But that report is for the entire Pinal County, not just CG. For the entire county about half of the sales for the last year have been cash sales, so one might extrapolate that about half of those in CG are also cash?
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-02-2010, 08:21 PM
 
Location: Casa Grande, AZ (May 08)
1,673 posts, read 3,805,852 times
Reputation: 1389
Thought I d post a little update on this one since its 3 months.

So, as I said originally for a couple years the average number of homes for sale in my area hovered between 300-340 (per ziprealty which I check frequently). At the very end of the tax credit it got as low as the 277 I cited in my original post.

The number has slowly but steadilly climbing back up and today sits at 347 homes for sale - the highest I have seen in quite awhile. Now, I have noticed that the builders have started posting back into the mix again, and some of them post all 10 of there specs or models, but I do not know if those have always been there in some form or if they are adding significantly to the total now whereas they were not before. I do know that we are still pulling upwards of 15+ NEW permits to build here per month so new homes are still selling.

The interesting thing I have noticed is that (unscientifically) the asking prices of the homes seem to be RISING on a per square foot basis. Again, this is just my observation, I havent done any statistical analysis or anything. Of course there are still the $40.00 per sq foot tear downs listed, or the $50.00 per sq ft bait and switch pricing on some short sales or foreclosures, but more and more seem to be listed at 65.00 or more per sq ft, and of course less of them are distressed properties, though there are still plenty of those out here.

Im wondering if the price increase and the inventory rising are going hand in hand?! The bears would sure say that is the case. It is however the slow time of year to sell homes here, but that said, honestly I havent seen an inventory at 347 homes even in the summer of the last couple years so....

Do with the info what you will...if you care at all! LOL!
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-03-2010, 01:31 PM
 
Location: Phoenix AZ
6,274 posts, read 12,604,002 times
Reputation: 10293
Quote:
Originally Posted by sh9730 View Post
Thought I d post a little update on this one since its 3 months.

So, as I said originally for a couple years the average number of homes for sale in my area hovered between 300-340 (per ziprealty which I check frequently). At the very end of the tax credit it got as low as the 277 I cited in my original post.

The number has slowly but steadilly climbing back up and today sits at 347 homes for sale - the highest I have seen in quite awhile. Now, I have noticed that the builders have started posting back into the mix again, and some of them post all 10 of there specs or models, but I do not know if those have always been there in some form or if they are adding significantly to the total now whereas they were not before. I do know that we are still pulling upwards of 15+ NEW permits to build here per month so new homes are still selling.

The interesting thing I have noticed is that (unscientifically) the asking prices of the homes seem to be RISING on a per square foot basis. Again, this is just my observation, I havent done any statistical analysis or anything. Of course there are still the $40.00 per sq foot tear downs listed, or the $50.00 per sq ft bait and switch pricing on some short sales or foreclosures, but more and more seem to be listed at 65.00 or more per sq ft, and of course less of them are distressed properties, though there are still plenty of those out here.

Im wondering if the price increase and the inventory rising are going hand in hand?! The bears would sure say that is the case. It is however the slow time of year to sell homes here, but that said, honestly I havent seen an inventory at 347 homes even in the summer of the last couple years so....

Do with the info what you will...if you care at all! LOL!
I don't watch Casa Grande specifically, but I do watch the metro area, and summer is peak selling season for Phx -

as for pricing... well, my crystal ball is a little cloudy..

That said, those that bought last year for cash, and the banks that are holding nonperforming mortgages seem to be doing just fine. The regulators aren't forcing them to foreclose and sell, so why would they?

Might as well keep up appearances so the insiders can dump their holdings to the sheeple.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Settings
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2020 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Arizona > Phoenix area
Similar Threads
View detailed profiles of:

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2021, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top