Which neighbiorhhood could be next? (Pittsburgh, Wilkinsburg: new home, construction, utilities)

[steindle]

Originally Posted by raubre

Where is that?

Translation: Chartiers City. Far western end of the city, near the infamous Fairywood.

[Aqua Teen Carl]

Originally Posted by alleghenyangel

Allentown, Beltzhoover, Mt. Oliver, and to some extent Carrick, Brookline, and Beechview are where dollars need to be spent.

Carrick has got some much needed improvements to their local schools, but other than that it's been the decaying and forgotten about part of the city it's been for the last 5 years.

[Jrn14]

When and what are the chances that Allentown will some day see a revival. I feel like some people still care about the neighborhood and it's proximity to Downtown and Southside bodes well for it, but so many of the residents treat Allentown like there own personal garbage can. The amount of litter is attrocious.

[calvin20874]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Just an aside, but this hasn't been true in other cities once prices in all the predominantly white neighborhoods get high enough. Basically people start pushing out from those neighborhoods, and each expansion builds on the last one. We haven't seen a lot of that in Pittsburgh in recent decades, but I suspect we see a lot more of it in the next few decades.

Pardon the belated response, BrianTH. There is a major difference between Pittsburgh and Arlington/Ballston (which was the model you cited), namely that there is major population growth and tremendous demand for housing in NoVa. Demand is also very high in DC, which has seem significant gentrification over the last decade. Since until recently Pittsburgh has continued to experience population loss, such demand has not driven gentrification. The neighborhoods with the most decay are often those with the greatest loss of population (Braddock is a good example). This, gentrification in Pittsburgh is impeded by lack of growth and housing demand.

This is not to say that gentrification can't happen, especially now that the losses have been stabilized and possibly replaced with slow growth. However, the lack of strong growth is certainly an impediment to revitalization compared to rapidly growing areas like NoVa.

[Copanut]

Seriously, with the state of the US and world economy, how many areas in this city will ever come back?

This country needs a shot of JOBS.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by calvin20874

This is not to say that gentrification can't happen, especially now that the losses have been stabilized and possibly replaced with slow growth. However, the lack of strong growth is certainly an impediment to revitalization compared to rapidly growing areas like NoVa.

I agree that Pittsburgh's population losses have been an impediment to gentrification in the core area. On the other hand, you don't need to have as much population growth as the DC Metro has seen in order to have rapid core area gentrification--Metros like New York, Chicago, Boston, and Philly have been growing slower than DC, but have also experienced core area gentrification that sometimes was quite rapid. That is all possible because just as much as overall population trends, what matters is trends in terms of population composition and income, as well as reinforcing effects (e.g., influxes of new residents into an area can encourage investment in new amenities in that area which can attract more residents, and so on back and forth). On top of that, I think it is reasonable to expect higher energy costs, increased road congestion, the aging of the Boomers, and changing lifestyle trends to accelerate core area gentrification everywhere it is possible.

So personally, I think it is more likely than not that in the next couple decades Pittsburgh will see what for most people here will be surprisingly fast gentrification in the core area, assuming it is true we are entering a period of at least slow population growth and the recent trends in population composition and income continue.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Copanut

Seriously, with the state of the US and world economy, how many areas in this city will ever come back? This country needs a shot of JOBS.

Well, Pittsburgh is on a very different track from most of the country: we lost fewer jobs than average, and are gaining jobs back quicker than average.

Not that I wish ill on the rest of the country, but that isn't necessarily a bad formula for more rapid redevelopment in Pittsburgh, and in fact net migration seems to have improved to Pittsburgh's benefit during the recession. Moreover, if so many people in the most distressed places weren't stuck in bad mortgages or otherwise didn't have the means to make a move, I think we would be seeing even more in-migration, which could happen in the later stages of the current cycle.

[calvin20874]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

So personally, I think it is more likely than not that in the next couple decades Pittsburgh will see what for most people here will be surprisingly fast gentrification in the core area, assuming it is true we are entering a period of at least slow population growth and the recent trends in population composition and income continue.

Yes, I agree that the core area will experience more development. What about places like Wilkinsburg, though? You mentioned the busway as a possible catalyst for revitalization. The busway has been around for more than 20 years, has it not? If anything, Wilkinsburg has decayed further during that time. In fact, it seems to me that the eastern suburbs are slowly fading away in general (having grown up in the eastern suburbs). You could point to the fact that the busway goes through East Liberty as a counter-example, but what has been the catalyst for revitalization of East Liberty? I was under the impression it was spillover (lack of available commercial real estate, etc) from Shadyside, as opposed to the busway.

[Copanut]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Well, Pittsburgh is on a very different track from most of the country: we lost fewer jobs than average, and are gaining jobs back quicker than average.

Not that I wish ill on the rest of the country, but that isn't necessarily a bad formula for more rapid redevelopment in Pittsburgh, and in fact net migration seems to have improved to Pittsburgh's benefit during the recession. Moreover, if so many people in the most distressed places weren't stuck in bad mortgages or otherwise didn't have the means to make a move, I think we would be seeing even more in-migration, which could happen in the later stages of the current cycle.

Brian,

I'm watching areas that used to be vital going downhill. People point to Lawrenceville and applaud because a new artist loft or coffee shop opens up. BFD. That area was always hardscrabble, never an "artiste" place.

My point, replace a factory or a mill with a boat dock or shopping mall, the jobs to make a good living just aren't there.

My two cents n'at.

[pman]

what were the neighborhoods that grew in the last decade despite the overall population loss?
I remember it being the central northside, downtown, the strip, and the south side. is this correct Brian?
I'd venture to say that the first three will see substantial growth again this decade and the neighborhoods adjacent to them will be the next neighborhoods.