Interesting study on U.S. Metro economies

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Yep--right now, in retrospect "artificial" seems like the right word for the "recovery" from the Dot-Com Recession.

And we didn't even have any benefits from that "boom" which was going on from 2003 to 2006. I believe it wasn't until mid 2008 when we finally got back to our peak employment before the Dot-Com Recession. Of course though, our recovery and 2010 census results would have probably been a little different if US Airways didn't lay off thousands during the "recovery".

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

And we didn't even have any benefits from that "boom" which was going on from 2003 to 2006. I believe it wasn't until mid 2008 when we finally got back to our peak employment before the Dot-Com Recession.

Of course the recent superior performance in Pittsburgh is the other side of that coin: in the mid-2000s we temporarily lost people and jobs to the metros where everyone thought they were getting rich on housing, but that bubble bursting has left many of those metros worse off than Pittsburgh.

So relatively speaking, we were better off for missing that artificial "boom". Of course the nation as a whole is much, much worse off for not having a real, sustainable recovery from the Dot-Com recession--and if there had been such a real recovery, I suspect we would have participated in it a lot more than we participated in the artificial housing-bubble boom.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Of course the recent superior performance in Pittsburgh is the other side of that coin: in the mid-2000s we temporarily lost people and jobs to the metros where everyone thought they were getting rich on housing, but that bubble bursting has left many of those metros worse off than Pittsburgh.

So relatively speaking, we were better off for missing that artificial "boom". Of course the nation as a whole is much, much worse off for not having a real, sustainable recovery from the Dot-Com recession--and if there had been such a real recovery, I suspect we would have participated in it a lot more than we participated in the artificial housing-bubble boom.

So much for the people that have left to get rich in the past 10 years. It's likely ome of those people have actually been moving back here that left 5 to 10 years ago. I think we need a reform in how our country tries to grow the economy if it wants to prevent another recession like we just had. We should focus future growth on manufacturing, R & D, innovation, and opening small business instead of playing financial games and opening chain stores and restaurants that hire people for $10 an hour and say the economy is booming.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

So much for the people that have left to get rich in the past 10 years. It's likely ome of those people have actually been moving back here that left 5 to 10 years ago.

I agree. We seem to have had a big spike in the labor force since the recession hit hard elsewhere and only mildly here, and I would be willing to bet a good chunk of those people were boomerang refugees.

I think we need a reform in how our country tries to grow the economy if it wants to prevent another recession like we just had.

Yep, I would think that is obvious. Some things are easier said than done, but some economic investments have proven, sustainable value--things like education, infrastructure, R&D, and so on. If we lead in those areas, and also make sure that everyone willing and able to work can provide security and an increasingly better life for themselves and their families, we should be able to do OK.

[pman]

total household debt—through payment or default—fell by $1.1 trillion, or 8.6%, from mid-2008 through the first half of 2011, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Auto loan and credit-card balances in August had their biggest drop since April 2010...Deleveraging should help the U.S. economy in the long-run, putting households on a sounder footing and easing the nation's reliance on the savings of Chinese and other foreign nationals...Historically, deleveraging after a financial crisis is long and painful. In a 2010 study of 15 crises since World War II followed by deleveraging, economists Carmen and Vincent Reinhart concluded that economic growth and inflation-adjusted home prices fell in most countries during the decade after the crisis, while unemployment grew. ..From 1997 to 2007, household debt ballooned from 66% of economic output to 98%, according to Federal Reserve data. As of June, the percentage had since been whittled down to 89%...

Americans' Debt Cutting Hampers Growth - WSJ.com