Pittsburgh MSA is growing (Philadelphia, Jersey Shore: house, living in, cost of)

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by Blackbeauty212

I'm talking about the state as a whole, how relative are those counties to the whole state?

They're in the state, so they're relevant thereto.

[Blackbeauty212]

Originally Posted by Gnutella

They're in the state, so they're relevant thereto.

You know what I mean....quit being a wise ass...

Factor in the 3 largest growing segments of the State....NEPA, Philly Metro, and Pittsburgh Metro and they're all benefiting from NYC-Out Migration.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

Wow how long would it take to travel between the two places?

When I was a child my family lived in Levittown, in Bucks County. My father commuted by train to NYC for many years before we moved to Connecticut. Not the greatest commute in the world, but it can be done.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Blackbeauty212

Factor in the 3 largest growing segments of the State....NEPA, Philly Metro, and Pittsburgh Metro and they're all benefiting from NYC-Out Migration.

Growth in NEPA seems to have stopped. I didn't aggregate the counties, but with Monroe and the Wyoming valley shrinking, it probably only depends upon how you define the Lehigh valley. There has been a lot of growth in outer regions of NEPA (Marcellus Shale?) although given the low population up there, it probably doesn't mean much to the region at large. I think it shows the demand for car commuting from NYC has fallen, but the demand for rail commutes has risen.

What I also find interesting is that Allegheny County outgrew Bucks and Northampton, and was pretty close to beating out Berks and Dauphin, areas formerly considered to be fairly dynamic portions of Eastern Pennsylvania.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by escilade18

What would be your estimate on the population figures (anyone is free to answer this as well.) I truly hope that we are climbing up now, it would be a blow to dip below 300,000 the way Cincy has

I think it could get its fair share of Allegheny County--call it +1000.

[Blackbeauty212]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Growth in NEPA seems to have stopped. I didn't aggregate the counties, but with Monroe and the Wyoming valley shrinking, it probably only depends upon how you define the Lehigh valley. There has been a lot of growth in outer regions of NEPA (Marcellus Shale?) although given the low population up there, it probably doesn't mean much to the region at large. I think it shows the demand for car commuting from NYC has fallen, but the demand for rail commutes has risen.

What I also find interesting is that Allegheny County outgrew Bucks and Northampton, and was pretty close to beating out Berks and Dauphin, areas formerly considered to be fairly dynamic portions of Eastern Pennsylvania.

Also doesn't NEPA have substantial Bus service to the city now...Commuters no longer need to drive to Jersey anymore?

[eschaton]

Just did a quick calculation for NEPA.

So far, it's lost 714 people this decade - a 0.05% decline.

If you include the Lehigh valley, however, it's gained 3,477 - a 0.17% increase.

[pman]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

Wow how long would it take to travel between the two places?

BB's point is a bit too NYC centric. the fact is, people have been commuting between the two cities for decades. in fact, the number of people riding the train between the two cities is down and might actually be at a multidecade low. earlier in the decade amtrak raised prices for a monthly ticket to ny from $600 to over a thousand (it's almost $1200/mo now). people quit their ny jobs or moved ,ridership is way down. the price of an acela ticket is astronomical because Amtrak is more worried about having enough seats to accomodate Washington-NY. NY has always been a factor in Philadelphia's migration patterns but that's not new, what is new is that the city is attracting people, not just the region. in decades past there was rapid growth in the collar counties and population loss in the city. that ended 00-10. what's happening is much more fundamental, a shift in where people are living. people are choosing to live in cities more than they used to. remember, .7% of Pittsburgh's population is ~2100 so a move up or down of 2100 is comparable in scale. I don't believe PA's changes are entirely driven by NYC (though it's certainly a factor, as is the problems in the rest of NYS). In a lot of ways PA is a low cost provider, it's cheaper to live in PA than just about anywhere in the east coast except DE. natural gas has put job growth in places that haven't seen it in decades, causing housing shortages in places like williamsport. the bust has been good to PA financial firms like PNC and vanguard (Philadelphia suburbs). Philadelphia is a lot like Pittsburgh, it's a major university town so it always has a flow of young people, as it's improved, it's held onto them longer. at any rate, this part should indicate migration isn't the major driver

Philadelphia had an estimated 29,227 births and 18,023 deaths from April 1, 2010, to last July, for a net population increase of about 11,200...
Meanwhile, although the city had an estimated net increase of 6,208 people moving here from outside the United States, it had a net decrease of 6,860 people who moved out of the city to other counties or states within the U.S. That means that overall, the city had a net decrease of about 650 people, based on migration data.

babies and immigration. it's somewhat evident when you visit, there's much more international flair than there was just a generation ago. some of it is probably immigrants escaping persecution in less friendly climes, others are probably people brought in by the universities that are now choosing to live in the city rather than commute. daycares, charters, and non-public schools are exploding in enrollment. the fastest growing counties outside the city are the least related to nyc (chester, esp, and montco).

[BrianTH]

Nice graph from Chris Briem:



From one perspective this is just the normalization of Pittsburgh. But "normal" is going to change everything, given how long we were abnormal.

[BrianTH]

By the way, this is out today too, and it helps explain some of these patterns:

Transportation and the New Generation | U.S. PIRG

By 2011, the average American was driving 6 percent fewer miles per year than in 2004. The trend away from driving has been led by young people. From 2001 and 2009, the average annual number of vehicle-miles traveled by young people (16 to 34-year-olds) decreased from 10,300 miles to 7,900 miles per capita – a drop of 23 percent. The trend away from steady growth in driving is likely to be long-lasting – even once the economy recovers. Young people are driving less for a host of reasons – higher gas prices, new licensing laws, improvements in technology that support alternative transportation, and changes in Generation Y’s values and preferences – all factors that are likely to have an impact for years to come.

We've known about these trends for a while, but again the likely implications have been met with skepticism because they go against so much CW.