Labor force growth and unemployment rates (Pittsburgh, Rankin: sales, rental, month to)

[BrianTH]

Headlines today are talking about a month over month increase in the local unemployment rate, although it remains well below the state/national rate:

Pittsburgh-area jobless rate jumped in August to 7.3% | TribLIVE

Here is some "analysis" in that article:

“We saw continued improvement through the first quarter this year and now we’ve given all that back,” said Kurt Rankin, a regional economist with PNC Financial Services Group Inc. . . . Rankin said Pittsburgh exhausted its ability to generate stronger jobs growth on its own and needs a healthier national economy to boost jobs.

I think it is important to note that is pretty misleading. You can get the full report here:

Monthly News Releases

What actually happened is that strong job growth continued in the region--it varies a bit month to month, and depending on which of the two surveys you are looking at, and from sector to sector, but overall we are continuing along at a very robust pace. The reason the unemployment rate has come back up a bit is mostly just that we are also still getting very large increases in the labor force, and even though most of those people are getting employed, there is a small remaining gap between the new employment count and new labor force count that is keeping our unemployment rate elevated. And if I had to guess, the reason for the slight increase in the unemployment rate over the summer has more to do with gradually increasing labor mobility as other places slowly and painfully work out of their housing-bust cycle, such that slightly more jobseekers are now able to relocate to this region (supporting evidence for this hypothesis would including continued robust home sales and low rental vacancy rates).

And it is a good bet this same basic dynamic is likely to continue until there is a convergence between the local and state/national unemployment rates. In that sense, it is true the local unemployment rate is only likely to return to normal levels if the state/national level normalizes as well. But that isn't because of lack of local job growth, but rather because we will be continuing to attract jobseekers at unusually high rates until such a convergence occurs, and it may well be the case that the rate of in-migration of jobseekers is actually going to accelerate.

[SteelCityRising]

Excellent analysis, BrianTH, as always. I'm inclined to agree with you. During times of economic uncertainty those who are unemployed or unederemployed will migrate in large numbers to areas where the local economic picture is robust (or at least not as bleak as where they are currently residing). Greater Pittsburgh has undoubtedly been growing in terms of population for the past several years, and that growth has finally caught up to the number of job vacancies. I just don't want us to see the same thing happen here that Portland, OR experienced---the influx of young job-seeking migrants continued, even as the city's unemployment rate was rising---and now the place is a rather expensive haven for the unemployed/underemployed.

P.S. If anyone is looking for a job I just put in my two-week's notice at my second job, which will free up another position in the East End!

[BrianTH]

For now, I suspect most people moving here either have a job secured already, or have very realistic prospects of quickly getting a job. So I don't think that Portland scenario is happening as yet.

[bradjl2009]

I hope I'll find something in accounting here next year. I have an interview with PWC for a WMTS internship over the winter so I hope that gives me some ability to have more opportunity after the internship is done if I get it.

[PeterRabbit]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

I have an interview with PWC for a WMTS internship over the winter so I hope that gives me some ability to have more opportunity after the internship is done if I get it.

Youngsters using initials for anything can't be taken seriously by intelligent people who make up the majority of the Pittsburgh forum.

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by PeterRabbit

Youngsters using initials for anything can't be taken seriously by intelligent people who make up the majority of the Pittsburgh forum.

PwC = PricewaterhouseCoopers, which is one of the "Big 4" accounting firms.

WMTS = Specialized Tax Accounting Area

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

PwC = PricewaterhouseCoopers, which is one of the "Big 4" accounting firms.

WMTS = Specialized Tax Accounting Area

Thank you very much. PricewaterhouseCoopers starting using PWC as its official name in 2010 and the online application used the term WMTS.

[Goinback2011]

There are dramatically fewer IT jobs being advertised now than there were at the beginning of the year. I wasn't paying close enough attention to see when the 'turn' happened, but I looked on Dice and Monster recently and was surprised by the difference.

[BrianTH]

I definitely make a point of always writing out National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Self-Contained Underwater Breathing Apparatus, and RAdio Detection And Ranging. I wouldn't want to be thought unintelligent.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by Goinback2011

There are dramatically fewer IT jobs being advertised now than there were at the beginning of the year. I wasn't paying close enough attention to see when the 'turn' happened, but I looked on Dice and Monster recently and was surprised by the difference.

I'm not sure about you now because you put IT instead of information technology.