An illustration of labor force growth in the Pittsburgh MSA (a.k.a. what a "dying" MSA does not look like) (Philadelphia: 2013, unemployment rate)

[Craziaskowboi]

Courtesy of Chris Briem...



Three things stood out to me:


1. The Pittsburgh MSA has been growing by over 30,000 workers year-over-year in the last two months, which is about 10,000 more than the year-over-year increases at the beginning of the 2000's.

2. The workforce growth trend has been highly positive, with increases in 54 of the last 68 months, and all 14 negative months being confined to the national economic nadir of 2009.

3. The duration and severity of the workforce decline in 2009 was similar to the decline in 2003, which should illustrate just how quickly the economic fundamentals of the region changed from one end of the 2000's to the other.


Sure looks like a dying metropolitan area to me.

[Blackbeauty212]

Doesn't matter to most people, Pittsburgh is dying as long as that magical number continues to show a negative number. One thing watching threads in City vs. City forum has taught me, people are incapable of looking more granular than the top line Census numbers in understanding a city's true vitality.

[LIRefugee]

Originally Posted by Blackbeauty212

Doesn't matter to most people, Pittsburgh is dying as long as that magical number continues to show a negative number. One thing watching threads in City vs. City forum has taught me, people are incapable of looking more granular than the top line Census numbers in understanding a city's true vitality.

That is one way statistics lie, in that some people look at the stats by themselves and extrapolate all sorts of conclusions based upon that single number. The census estimates show growth in Pittsburgh, so that net change isn't negative anymore anyway.

Also, Pittsburgh resoundingly defeated Indianapolis in that forum.

In any case, I'd like to see a comparison of those numbers in the first post against the overall numbers of the country. I think it would be interesting to see how they compare, and I would bet Pittsburgh comes out a little better than average.

[trackstar13]

I think the argument many have regarding labor force statistics is related to what to report and how to compare various metros. If you look at total labor force size Pittsburgh appears to be improving, but if you look at unemployment rate Pittsburgh appears to be regressing. The most recent projected unemployment rate for Pittsburgh is 8.6%, which is the highest in 3 years. As other posters have mentioned it would be interesting to see a side by side comparison of Pittsburgh vs. other similar size cities in regards to several key labor statistics.

Notice: Data not available: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

[Blackbeauty212]

Originally Posted by LIRefugee

That is one way statistics lie, in that some people look at the stats by themselves and extrapolate all sorts of conclusions based upon that single number. The census estimates show growth in Pittsburgh, so that net change isn't negative anymore anyway.

Also, Pittsburgh resoundingly defeated Indianapolis in that forum.

In any case, I'd like to see a comparison of those numbers in the first post against the overall numbers of the country. I think it would be interesting to see how they compare, and I would bet Pittsburgh comes out a little better than average.

Not just talking based off one thread....in the City vs City forum, to the many Pittsburgh is still dying because the official Census number still shows it losing population. Gnutella, myself and others have explained the Burgh perplexed way of gaining while subtracting, but always need to explain it again and again, and again.

Which is the reason for my conclusion, until that "Official" census number shows Pittsburgh turning positive its a dying city. The minute it turns positive Pittsburgh will be a different city to those people. It was the same dynamic that happen to Philadelphia.

[globalburgh]

I think Briem's other graph is more telling.



The MSA recovers peak labor force in the early 1990s. It hovers around that number until the national economy starts contracting. Two important conclusions:

1) Labor force can grow while overall population shrinks. Everyone focuses on the population numbers. The "dying" assessment was wrong.

2) Graduates sticking around likely explain the bulk of recent labor force gains. Why move during a financial crisis? The crisis has passed and the graduates still aren't leaving. Pittsburgh has finally moved beyond the devastating recessions of the early 1980s.

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by globalburgh

I think Briem's other graph is more telling.



The MSA recovers peak labor force in the early 1990s. It hovers around that number until the national economy starts contracting. Two important conclusions:

1) Labor force can grow while overall population shrinks. Everyone focuses on the population numbers. The "dying" assessment was wrong.

2) Graduates sticking around likely explain the bulk of recent labor force gains. Why move during a financial crisis? The crisis has passed and the graduates still aren't leaving. Pittsburgh has finally moved beyond the devastating recessions of the early 1980s.

Woah, we actually have more jobs now than during the steel mill era? Seems a bit fishy...

[globalburgh]

Originally Posted by speagles84

Woah, we actually have more jobs now than during the steel mill era? Seems a bit fishy...

More jobs now than ever, population peak be damned.

[Moby Hick]

Originally Posted by globalburgh

More jobs now than ever, population peak be damned.

We're not very far off peak population for the MSA and women are much more likely be in the labor force than back then.

Pittsburgh metropolitan area - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by globalburgh

I think Briem's other graph is more telling.



The MSA recovers peak labor force in the early 1990s. It hovers around that number until the national economy starts contracting. Two important conclusions:

1) Labor force can grow while overall population shrinks. Everyone focuses on the population numbers. The "dying" assessment was wrong.

2) Graduates sticking around likely explain the bulk of recent labor force gains. Why move during a financial crisis? The crisis has passed and the graduates still aren't leaving. Pittsburgh has finally moved beyond the devastating recessions of the early 1980s.

I addressed #2 in the previous thread related to this, Pittsburgh has had substantial labor force growth in the older age groups.