POLL: Democratic Presidential Primary (Warren, Freedom: lawsuits, legality, store)

[JoeP]

Bernie does much better than Hillary among independents

Most people are not true independents. They are leaning towards one way or the other inherently.

If you look at polls for this time in previous cycles, Romney was winning and in 2008 many Hillary supporters weren't going to vote for Obama (and even then it was a smaller % than of Bernie ones today).

I get it, some have wishful thinking.... certainly Bernie supporters and definitely Republicans who are more and more concerned as each day passes and Trump opens his mouth. Not to mention that this isn't the GOP primary anymore and Trump is finally just beginning to get scrutinized. He can't even handle it. He had yet another tantrum yesterday. Sad!

[MountainDewGuy]

Originally Posted by JoeP

Most people are not true independents. They are leaning towards one way or the other inherently.

If you look at polls for this time in previous cycles, Romney was winning and in 2008 many Hillary supporters weren't going to vote for Obama (and even then it was a smaller % than of Bernie ones today).

I get it, some have wishful thinking.... certainly Bernie supporters and definitely Republicans who are more and more concerned as each day passes and Trump opens his mouth. Not to mention that this isn't the GOP primary anymore and Trump is finally just beginning to get scrutinized. He can't even handle it. He had yet another tantrum yesterday. Sad!

I think many folks mistakenly use the term 'independent' as some sort of moderate voter who sits right between Ds and Rs. That is just not true. I see independents as a scattering of varying political ideologies. I'm an independent who couldn't vote in the PA primary. I will happily vote for Bernie in the general. Will not vote for Hillary, even with Trump in the race. Plenty of folks just like me and if Hillary thinks that she will grab most of our votes... then I'm afraid I've got some bad news. The only chance she has is to put Bernie or Warren on the ticket. And even then, I still am likely to vote for the Green Party candidate. Hillary went too far when she attempted to suggest that Bernie was against Obama and Obamacare. She tried to bring down Obama in 2008 as well. She will do whatever it takes to win the presidency, and that is exactly the type of person who should not be president.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by JoeP

Most people are not true independents. They are leaning towards one way or the other inherently.

If you look at polls for this time in previous cycles, Romney was winning and in 2008 many Hillary supporters weren't going to vote for Obama (and even then it was a smaller % than of Bernie ones today).

I get it, some have wishful thinking.... certainly Bernie supporters and definitely Republicans who are more and more concerned as each day passes and Trump opens his mouth. Not to mention that this isn't the GOP primary anymore and Trump is finally just beginning to get scrutinized. He can't even handle it. He had yet another tantrum yesterday. Sad!

So are you wagering anything on your confidence of HRC winning or just hoping she can pull off a win?

[stburr91]

Originally Posted by MountainDewGuy

I think many folks mistakenly use the term 'independent' as some sort of moderate voter who sits right between Ds and Rs. That is just not true. I see independents as a scattering of varying political ideologies. I'm an independent who couldn't vote in the PA primary. I will happily vote for Bernie in the general. Will not vote for Hillary, even with Trump in the race. Plenty of folks just like me and if Hillary thinks that she will grab most of our votes... then I'm afraid I've got some bad news. The only chance she has is to put Bernie or Warren on the ticket. And even then, I still am likely to vote for the Green Party candidate. Hillary went too far when she attempted to suggest that Bernie was against Obama and Obamacare. She tried to bring down Obama in 2008 as well. She will do whatever it takes to win the presidency, and that is exactly the type of person who should not be president.

I completely agree that independents have varying political ideologies.

I'm an independent, and I would never vote of Hillary (I know that is obvious to everyone).

Bernie supporters, and independents are going to decide this election.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by stburr91

I completely agree that independents have varying political ideologies.

I'm an independent, and I would never vote of Hillary (I know that is obvious to everyone).

Bernie supporters, and independents are going to decide this election.

Exactly.

As of right now, however, the betting line has Hillary a slight favorite.

[Merge]

Originally Posted by stburr91

I completely agree that independents have varying political ideologies.

I'm an independent, and I would never vote of Hillary (I know that is obvious to everyone).

Bernie supporters, and independents are going to decide this election.

If that's true, then I think the situation plays out in HRC's favor. It's likely that she is bottoming out right now with the brunt of the criticism coming her way from two different directions. Right now it's a two-front war against her. This is likely to change dramatically after the CA/NJ primaries (unless it's a Bernie-blow out, which I don't see happening).

[MountainDewGuy]

Originally Posted by Merge

If that's true, then I think the situation plays out in HRC's favor. It's likely that she is bottoming out right now with the brunt of the criticism coming her way from two different directions. Right now it's a two-front war against her. This is likely to change dramatically after the CA/NJ primaries (unless it's a Bernie-blow out, which I don't see happening).

If people think Hillary has it tough now, wait until Donald really goes after her.

[RogersParkTransplant]

I think Sanders is a short-term drag on Clinton's popularity, but a long-term investment for the DNC if they don't blow it. It's on Clinton to show the Sanders side that she will strike a bargain with them. Pretending that Sanders fans are sexist is a bad idea, because it's alienating. Doesn't help to worry about how much sexism is hurting her, because either way, calling people sexist isn't going to win them over.

The DNC has to find a meaningful platform that appeals to a broad base. Sanders has one. Love it or hate it, you all know the Sanders platform. Clinton's platform is still basically that she is qualified. That's true, but it's not enough to be "qualified" because the question is really -- qualified to do what, exactly? Other than getting elected and thus proving a point about being super-experienced AND a woman, what does she really want to accomplish?

I realize that Clinton has plans, but she needs to formulate them ASAP. She needs a heart to her campaign, and honestly "key demographics love me" is not a good core message. I'm increasingly worried that she will keep stumbling on this point, and I think in many ways being put to the test by Sanders supporters will help her finally formulate a real message. I hope so, anyway.

Beyond this, look, there's no way to predict how many independents will vote against her, because it depends on what she does next. A progressive VP would soothe a lot of nervous people, for example. But Sanders is getting young people registered and paying attention, and that will be important for defeating Trump in the Fall.

[DaisyDaisy]

This election, I'm likely voting more "against" a candidate than "for" a candidate.

[stburr91]

This is a breakdown of the Hillary email/server issue. I hope people will take the time to read it, and keep an open mind.

There is a lot of information on this issue, but this is just an overview so people that haven't followed this can get a basic understanding. It is still somewhat long, so I will break it down into several posts.


Everything below is either from Inspector General's reports, or from credible media sources. None of this is my opinion, it is verified facts.


A summary of the differences of what Hillary did as SoS, that the other SoS did not do.


Hillary was the only SoS to never use a government email account. Hillary did all of her official State Department business on her private email.

Hillary used a secret private server for her private email that prevented her emails from being properly archived, and accessible to the government, and the public through the FOIA. No other SoS has ever used a private server.

Hillary was the only SoS to use her private email to transmit top secret information, including Special Access Program information (the most secret programs in the government).

Hillary was the only SoS that stored thousands of classified emails, including 22 top secret emails on her own private server.

Hillary is the only SoS that took all of her emails (that are by law, federal records) with her when she left the State Department.

Hillary was the only SoS that did not cooperate with the Inspector General's audit. Hillary, and her staff are the only ones that refuse to be interviewed by the Inspector General during the audit.

Also keep in mind that there were many more policies, and regulations in place for how to handle email when Hillary was SoS than there was for previous SoS.

The State Department Inspector General's report clearly shows substantial differences with what Hillary did, that prior SoS didn't.

More to come.