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Old 06-25-2016, 08:27 AM
 
3,291 posts, read 2,743,935 times
Reputation: 3375

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Quote:
Originally Posted by corpgypsy View Post
I surmise that you would have faith in him if his facts agreed with your opinion. Michael Lamb is working in real time. I do not see an agenda in that article other than to work toward a future and provide information.. What book are you selling, that makes you so upset over this? Also since on the topic of faith... isn't the census from a government agency?

I don't know what you think that guy does - do you think he actually goes door to door doing his own census? There is no more accepted population source than census data in the US --there just isn't. This is widely agreed upon.

If you disagree, show us the source. and you might want to notify the Census bureau, because they are going to have a major adjustment data to do.

He obviously screwed this up, or said it for reasons of persuasion.

Last edited by _Buster; 06-25-2016 at 09:55 AM..
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Old 06-25-2016, 09:05 AM
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
90,316 posts, read 120,259,082 times
Reputation: 35920
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
Hrrm...Looking on Census Factfinder, 8.5% of Pittsburgh's population is between 5 and 15. I then looked up San Francisco. There, only 6.8% of the population is between 5 and 15.

Michael Lamb is just making stuff up.
OK, I decided to look up a sampling of cities around the country.

New England: Boston-8.6% between 5 and 15
Mid-Atlantic: Philadelphia-11.8%
********** Baltimore-11.3%
Southeast: Charlotte, NC-13.7%
******** Atlanta-10.0%
Midwest: Chicago-12%
******* Minneapolis-10.4%
******* St. Paul-13.6%
Great Plains: Omaha-13.8%
Mountain West: Denver 11.4%
************ Salt Lake City-11.4%
Texas: Dallas (county)-15%
****** Austin-11.8%
West Coast: Seattle-9.2%
********** Portland-10.1%
********** LA-11.9%

So maybe SF has a lower child population, but Pittsburgh is at the low end for large cities. Only Boston is close to Pittsburgh's number, and Seattle is the only other one under 10% (besides SF). Philadelphia, in the same state, has about 33% more kids of that age.

Last edited by Katarina Witt; 06-25-2016 at 09:16 AM..
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Old 06-25-2016, 11:07 AM
 
11,086 posts, read 8,502,043 times
Reputation: 6392
I'm not sure what the mystery is here.

People move to the burbs when they have school age kids because of the Pgh Public Schools.

There is a constant influx of college-age kids, some of whom remain in the city for awhile.
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Old 06-25-2016, 01:12 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh
3,298 posts, read 3,860,351 times
Reputation: 3141
Quote:
Originally Posted by MamieRose View Post
People graduating from PA colleges and universities with degrees in education have declined by 62% since 2012 as per PDE. Other estimates are even higher. We are currently experiencing a national teacher shortage, a local substitute shortage and will have difficulty filling future openings with quality candidates.

Lancaster County will feel shortage of classroom teachers in less than two years | Local News | lancasteronline.com
Well, Lancaster is different. It's probably one of the fastest, if not fastest, growing counties in the state. Lancaster is a prime bedroom community to Philly. The South Butler of Eastern PA. Those positions will fill up quick. In general, the western and northern halves of the state will continue to have schools with declining attendance.
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Old 06-26-2016, 07:42 AM
 
2,218 posts, read 1,934,720 times
Reputation: 1909
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluecarebear View Post
Well, Lancaster is different. It's probably one of the fastest, if not fastest, growing counties in the state. Lancaster is a prime bedroom community to Philly. The South Butler of Eastern PA. Those positions will fill up quick. In general, the western and northern halves of the state will continue to have schools with declining attendance.
To believe this, you have to completely misunderstand the definition of the term "bedroom community". Also you have to ignore Lancaster's long history as an inland city and current center of its own significant MSA of a half million people. And then you have to ignore the fact that the Lancaster/Philly commute is an hour-and-a-half without traffic.

But yeah, besides that... Lancaster is exactly like "South Butler"!
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:03 AM
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
90,316 posts, read 120,259,082 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Goinback2011 View Post
I'm not sure what the mystery is here.

People move to the burbs when they have school age kids because of the Pgh Public Schools.

There is a constant influx of college-age kids, some of whom remain in the city for awhile.
The OP referred to all of western PA:

Aging population gives way to job openings in Western Pennsylvania | TribLIVE
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Old 06-26-2016, 09:00 AM
 
Location: Washington County, PA
4,240 posts, read 4,889,657 times
Reputation: 2859
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katarina Witt View Post
Craziaskowboi is going to be right with his assumption. The Pittsburgh MSA is going to barely grow by 2020, but Allegheny County will be nearly fully recovered. Westmorelands exurban growth is not covering up the losses in the rural parts of the county anymore.

With the shell cracker plant going in, Beaver will start to boom but that won't be until after the 2020 census most likely.
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:04 PM
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
90,316 posts, read 120,259,082 times
Reputation: 35920
Since this thread is supposed to be about western PA (per the link in the OP), I thought you guys might be interested in this:
http://www.timesonline.com/changingf...r_County_Times
Title: Beaver County sees dip in youth, growth in seniors
Hopefully, you can get into it. The BC Times requires a subscription for most of its articles.
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:36 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
14,361 posts, read 16,890,821 times
Reputation: 12390
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katarina Witt View Post
OK, I decided to look up a sampling of cities around the country.

New England: Boston-8.6% between 5 and 15
Mid-Atlantic: Philadelphia-11.8%
********** Baltimore-11.3%
Southeast: Charlotte, NC-13.7%
******** Atlanta-10.0%
Midwest: Chicago-12%
******* Minneapolis-10.4%
******* St. Paul-13.6%
Great Plains: Omaha-13.8%
Mountain West: Denver 11.4%
************ Salt Lake City-11.4%
Texas: Dallas (county)-15%
****** Austin-11.8%
West Coast: Seattle-9.2%
********** Portland-10.1%
********** LA-11.9%

So maybe SF has a lower child population, but Pittsburgh is at the low end for large cities. Only Boston is close to Pittsburgh's number, and Seattle is the only other one under 10% (besides SF). Philadelphia, in the same state, has about 33% more kids of that age.
Boston being a runner-up shows pretty clearly one contributing factor to a low number of children - a high number of college and graduate students. Logically speaking, after all, if you take a "normal" age distribution and then add say 40,000 people enrolled at the various colleges and universities, the proportion of the population in every non-college age group is going to drop.

Pittsburgh's proportion also suffers I think for two other reasons. One, we have fairly narrow city limits - more "suburban" neighborhoods are actually in the suburbs than in other places. Also, we have a disporportionately small nonwhite population, which means the expected average family size would be smaller than in most other U.S. cities.
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Old 06-26-2016, 09:04 PM
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
90,316 posts, read 120,259,082 times
Reputation: 35920
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
Boston being a runner-up shows pretty clearly one contributing factor to a low number of children - a high number of college and graduate students. Logically speaking, after all, if you take a "normal" age distribution and then add say 40,000 people enrolled at the various colleges and universities, the proportion of the population in every non-college age group is going to drop.

Pittsburgh's proportion also suffers I think for two other reasons. One, we have fairly narrow city limits - more "suburban" neighborhoods are actually in the suburbs than in other places. Also, we have a disporportionately small nonwhite population, which means the expected average family size would be smaller than in most other U.S. cities.
Denver has more college graduates than Pittsburgh.
Denver Colorado Demographics and Population Statistics
"Denver is the most educated city in the U.S. Denver has the greatest percentage of high school and college graduates of any major metropolitan area in the U.S.; 92.1% of the population in the metro area have high school diplomas and 35% have at least a bachelor’s degree, according to the U.S. Census. The national average is 81.7% for high school diplomas and 23% with a college degree." Yet, Denver has about 33% more kids 5-15 than Pittsburgh.

Denver is 150 sq. miles, 50 mi. of which is airport. I believe Pittsburgh does not count its airport in its square mileage. So Denver is about twice as big, and has twice the population. Basically the same density. What's your documentation for that statement in bold?
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