Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Of course I don't disagree with you about the pattern, but the blocks I am thinking about still have empty homes with boarded up windows. This is why I am so happy that the block of Middle Street across from Max's Allegheny Tavern is getting rehabbed -- that's a whole block just behind East Ohio street that has been sitting empty since Pfennig's cleaners shut down, whenever that happened. Even if those units are all bought by DINKs (or empty-nesters), we would have 20 new people moving in.
I'm also guessing there will be a lot of infill. It's striking to me that of the three properties for sale on Spring Garden Ave in between Chestnut and 279, the two that are new construction are already contingent and the handsome old brick building that has been rehabbed is still an active listing. Personally I think that's surprising (they all had similar square footage and similar prices, but the new construction is rather bland and the old house is gorgeous and is all new on the inside), but it's undeniable that people jump for indoor parking, which the new units have. There are already plans for five more new row homes on the next block over, on Concord, and I can only imagine more empty lots will get filled in after that.
I'm realizing I mistyped earlier, btw -- I meant to say 80 new homes would bring about *200* new residents, not 300, as I am guessing an average of 2.5 residents per home. It's small change compared to the potential displacements we are seeing elsewhere. But because the 80 new homes I am talking about have nobody there now, either because they are empty or because they haven't been built, I do see some new people coming in.
I think you're over-estimating what infill townhouses can accomplish. Keep in mind that by 2010, the first phase of the Federal Hill project had been completed, but Central Northside still lost 277 people (-8.7%) over the course of the previous decade due to a combination of gentrification, falling household sizes, and probably some open abandonment in the northeastern fringes of the neighborhood. I think the population decline will be lower this decade - there's been more infill houses, and likely very few units have been outright abandoned - but I don't think it will be anywhere near enough to turn the corner on growth yet.
The story will likely be much the same for Deutschtown. Remember that the eastern part of the neighborhood only started its recovery very recently, so there's a hole to climb out of due to population loss in the early part of the decade. A few units were lost to demolition on Phineas as well for the upcoming ARC hotel project. Phase 2 is supposed to include apartment buildings, but I don't see it being done until some time in the 2020s at this rate. I'd really like to see an apartment building constructed on that Parking Authority lot on Foreland as well - it's zoned commercial so a high-density mixed-use building isn't impossible under zoning.
I think you're over-estimating what infill townhouses can accomplish. Keep in mind that by 2010, the first phase of the Federal Hill project had been completed, but Central Northside still lost 277 people (-8.7%) over the course of the previous decade due to a combination of gentrification, falling household sizes, and probably some open abandonment in the northeastern fringes of the neighborhood. I think the population decline will be lower this decade - there's been more infill houses, and likely very few units have been outright abandoned - but I don't think it will be anywhere near enough to turn the corner on growth yet.
The story will likely be much the same for Deutschtown. Remember that the eastern part of the neighborhood only started its recovery very recently, so there's a hole to climb out of due to population loss in the early part of the decade. A few units were lost to demolition on Phineas as well for the upcoming ARC hotel project. Phase 2 is supposed to include apartment buildings, but I don't see it being done until some time in the 2020s at this rate. I'd really like to see an apartment building constructed on that Parking Authority lot on Foreland as well - it's zoned commercial so a high-density mixed-use building isn't impossible under zoning.
Well, that's fair, and I defer to you on all the statistics. Still it's hard to see how either side of Deutschtown can really lose people given the number of empty buildings and lots, but there are probably buildings on the fringes that aren't as visible to me as a pedestrian as the glaring empty structures in the center.
Can I ask a naive question: what is the benefit of population growth overall? I obviously don't wish to see displacement, but if we're talking about a natural dynamic of smaller family sizes, more childless households in the city, and an elderly population passing away...is population loss itself something to worry about? I want to see less blight and fewer empty buildings and lots. Should I really care if the person who buys the $300k house down the street is bringing five family members or two? Either way, they will pay the taxes on the house and it won't sit empty, and the DINKs will arguably spend more money in the neighborhood restaurants than the families would. What are the pros and cons that I'm not seeing?
I think the article I posted in the southside thread is an accurate portrayal of what is going on in the majority of the city.
The biggest gainers will probably be lawrenceville, east liberty, shadyside, downtown and maybe the strip. Sq hill, point breeze, regent square and Bloomfield will have minor losses. I see bigger than expected losses for greenfield, friendship, highland park and Garfield. Huge losses in the the homewoods, Lincoln lemmington, larimer, east hills.
I see all the western neighborhoods losing a few hundred up to 1,000 each. Bigger than expected losses on mt Washington, southside, carrick and Brookline. Huge losses for Knoxville, slopes, Arlington, Allentown, beltzhoover, Lincoln place and banksville. LP and banksville will be fallout from the police residency lifted.
The north side will probably post losses across the board. I could only see allegheny west, Mexican war streets, Manchester and maybe Troy hill posting gains if any. Brighton heights and observatory hill will post bigger than expected losses. It's a shame I love the north side, too much crime and poor blacks left behind.
For that it would be a huge victory to have more than 295k residents in 2020. I think it will be between 285-288k
The north side will probably post losses across the board. I could only see allegheny west, Mexican war streets, Manchester and maybe Troy hill posting gains if any. Brighton heights and observatory hill will post bigger than expected losses. It's a shame I love the north side, too much crime and poor blacks left behind.
When did you move away? This area has changed a lot in the past five years...Observatory Hill is still a little shaky but Brighton Heights is doing fine; it might post some losses but it's not going to be terrible. There's honestly not as much crime here as most people think, and plenty of bougie black people (to borrow a term from Damon Young, who also lives around here) mixed in with various people of all walks of life.
I'm accepting eschaton's arguments for why the Northside may lose population in raw numbers, but it's not because the area is going downhill -- the dynamic is much more complicated than that.
When did you move away? This area has changed a lot in the past five years...Observatory Hill is still a little shaky but Brighton Heights is doing fine; it might post some losses but it's not going to be terrible. There's honestly not as much crime here as most people think, and plenty of bougie black people (to borrow a term from Damon Young, who also lives around here) mixed in with various people of all walks of life.
I'm accepting eschaton's arguments for why the Northside may lose population in raw numbers, but it's not because the area is going downhill -- the dynamic is much more complicated than that.
I moved in January of 2015. I loved observatory hill and the north side. I still think it is the best part of the city and would be the gem if it were a growing city with a thriving economy. Brighton heights has great homes as well I just think the whole north side is shaky with crime. Manchester, allegheny west and the Mexican war streets are some of the best neighborhoods in the city. If I ever moved back and could afford better schools for my son that's where I would move.
Pittsburgh just doesn't have a good economy right now. Other cities are just a lot better right now for work
I expect my beloved Polish Hill to continue to follow in the footsteps of Allegheny West---slow population decline accompanied by moderate gentrification. There are some bright spots. Two long-blighted buildings across the street have been rehabilitated into two high-end duplexes with new residents. Some other long-blighted homes in adjacent blocks are also being renovated to house new residents. I don't foresee the vacant-to-occupied status change of these homes to spur enough population growth to offset the loss of the old-time Polish folks to their natural deaths and the loss of young working-class white families to gentrification (something that is indeed happening in this neighborhood despite what gladhands says).
My prediction for the city at-large is a population of around 305,000---stagnation. All of these fancy new residential mid-rises in the trendy neighborhoods aren't going to bring enough new residents in to significantly offset the troubled neighborhoods of the Southern Hilltop, Sheraden, northeastern East End, and the outer North Side sharting the bed.
Sq hill, point breeze, regent square and Bloomfield will have minor losses.
As I said, I think Morrow Park Apartments will be enough additional units to offset Bloomfield's shrinking population size, but it will be close either way.
Squirrel hill will see modest growth South of Forbes, but no growth North of Forbes - unless CMU or Chatham has built some new dorms there I'm not aware of
Agreed on the other ones - middle class neighborhoods with no net increase to housing stock tend to shrink a few percent each decade.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oakland21550
I see bigger than expected losses for greenfield, friendship, highland park and Garfield.
Friendship is certainly going to grow. From 2000 to 2010 its population shrunk by only six people, with (AFAIK) no net increase to the housing stock. Baumhaus is going to add another 103 units in the neighborhood. Since housing is not being abandoned in Friendship, the only way that it could shrink is if there was a rash of conversions of the big old houses into single-family structures (which is very unlikely).
Highland Park and Greenfield are almost certainly going to continue to shrink, because new housing stock isn't being added in any real numbers. I know of a few abandoned houses in Highland Park still being rehabbed, but it's mostly done, meaning there's nowhere to go but down as low-income black families are displaced for young professionals.
Garfield is very different demographically in a number of ways. It's been seeing steady but low levels of infill construction of low-income housing, but also seeing gentrification closer to Penn, so I'm not sure where it will head.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oakland21550
Huge losses in the the homewoods, Lincoln lemmington, larimer, east hills.
Both Larimer and Homewood South have seen real residential reinvestment now which should slow down the level of loss in those neighborhoods, albeit not stop it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oakland21550
I see all the western neighborhoods losing a few hundred up to 1,000 each. Bigger than expected losses on mt Washington, southside, carrick and Brookline. Huge losses for Knoxville, slopes, Arlington, Allentown, beltzhoover, Lincoln place and banksville. LP and banksville will be fallout from the police residency lifted.
I don't foresee growth anywhere south of the Mon/Ohio save for South Side Flats. But I could be wrong. weird places like East Carnegie saw small population gains last decade, so you never know.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oakland21550
The north side will probably post losses across the board. I could only see allegheny west, Mexican war streets, Manchester and maybe Troy hill posting gains if any. Brighton heights and observatory hill will post bigger than expected losses. It's a shame I love the north side, too much crime and poor blacks left behind.
I forgot to mention in my original post Allegheny Center. Between 2008 and 2014, one of the four residential towers was totally empty. It had formerly been used as a dorm by the Art Institute, but for whatever reason once this stopped the owners didn't convert it back. The new owners have, and it's fully occupied. Thus Allegheny Center will be posting a gain.
I expect my beloved Polish Hill to continue to follow in the footsteps of Allegheny West---slow population decline accompanied by moderate gentrification. There are some bright spots. Two long-blighted buildings across the street have been rehabilitated into two high-end duplexes with new residents. Some other long-blighted homes in adjacent blocks are also being renovated to house new residents. I don't foresee the vacant-to-occupied status change of these homes to spur enough population growth to offset the loss of the old-time Polish folks to their natural deaths and the loss of young working-class white families to gentrification (something that is indeed happening in this neighborhood despite what gladhands says).
Yeah. Polish Hill will continue to decline in population until such time as neighborhood real estate prices warrant either a new construction apartment building or maybe a rehab of a large abandoned building.
One thing which might save the neighborhood in the 2020s is technically the southern side of Liberty Avenue from 28th Street to 33rd Street is in Polish Hill. So if the Strip really does go crazy with redevelopment, we could see a mega-apartment building constructed on one of those blocks, causing the population of "Polish Hill" to boost in the same way that Heinz Lofts lifted Troy Hill.
Agreed on the other ones - middle class neighborhoods with no net increase to housing stock tend to shrink a few percent each decade.
And this is not a good or bad thing. It is not a crisis as some other posters present it as, but merely a demographic change. Case in point Brookline, we don’t have abandoned houses or empty lots, we just have smaller families, or couples, or singles living in houses that used to house more people. We are not going to see large apartment buildings built in this neighborhood ever, because it was not designed to be that kind of neighborhood. It is a SFH residential area, with some apartments in the commercial area. So unless it becomes trendy to have 4-5 kids, our numbers will continue to shrink.
I also believe that the city is collecting more income tax revenue these days, so while the population declines, the incomes are rising. Sounds like a nice situation to be in.
There are a lot of opinions on population growth. I am trying to be realistic in my comparisons.
Note the population growth occurring in the following cites. These places are growing but may not get the press that Pittsburgh does.
1. Nashville
2. Columbus
3. Charlotte
4. Raleigh
5. Richmond
Will Pittsburgh ever be able to attain the population growth occurring in these cities. Why or why not?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
