Pennsylvania Population Increase (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Lancaster: real estate, quality of life, property taxes)

[sandritz6]

I just saw that Pennsylvania gained about 18,400 people from July 2016 and July 2017, after it had lost population last year. That is enough of an increase to surpass Illinois and take the number 5 spot. Do you think maybe our area is making a comeback?

[PenguinsFan14]

Originally Posted by sandritz6

I just saw that Pennsylvania gained about 18,400 people from July 2016 and July 2017, after it had lost population last year. That is enough of an increase to surpass Illinois and take the number 5 spot. Do you think maybe our area is making a comeback?

I can't say for sure, but I'm almost positive it's the eastern part of the state. The lehigh valley has gained a lot of people from NY/NJ over the past few years. Also, a lot of people from the Baltimore area have moved up to around York and Lancaster Counties. I'm guessing those are the biggest reasons for the increase.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by PenguinsFan14

I can't say for sure, but I'm almost positive it's the eastern part of the state. The lehigh valley has gained a lot of people from NY/NJ over the past few years. Also, a lot of people from the Baltimore area have moved up to around York and Lancaster Counties. I'm guessing those are the biggest reasons for the increase.

I think you're right most likely. The state saw plenty of gains in the 90's and 2000's while this side of the state still fell. Maybe Butler and Allegheny County have been seeing small increases, but that's about it I think is likely.

[rowhomecity]

Yea most of the migration into the state has been on the Eastern half. There is a large migration from NY and NJ into the Lehigh Valley and in to Southeast PA. NYC has an extremely high cost of living and NJ has the highest property taxes in the nation so its been a steady and slowly growing exodus in to PA. The City of Philadelphia has gradually been growing since 2010. It would be nice to see that also extend to the western half.

[szug-bot]

Originally Posted by rowhomecity

.... The City of Philadelphia has gradually been growing since 2010. It would be nice to see that also extend to the western half.

I would not mind a stagnation in population growth until our current infrastructure and bureaucracy are improved.

Here, an influx of people will probably mean more development north of Route 28 (already seeing level of service declines, and is becoming dangerous with speeding), and in the western suburbs, which thrive on more sprawl/vehicle use/congestion/air pollution.

Call me a negative nancy, but to locals in the patchwork of small towns spread across Berks, Lancaster, and Adams County, this influx will probably mean an end to what they enjoy about their perhaps more relaxed lifestyle.

But then again, there are winners and losers to everything - if you are in the building trades, a real estate investor, or something like that, you might speculate that there is money to be made out in lower central or eastern PA.

[rowhomecity]

Originally Posted by szug-bot

I would not mind a stagnation in population growth until our current infrastructure and bureaucracy are improved.

Here, an influx of people will probably mean more development north of Route 28 (already seeing level of service declines, and is becoming dangerous with speeding), and in the western suburbs, which thrive on more sprawl/vehicle use/congestion/air pollution.

Call me a negative nancy, but to locals in the patchwork of small towns spread across Berks, Lancaster, and Adams County, this influx will probably mean an end to what they enjoy about their perhaps more relaxed lifestyle.

But then again, there are winners and losers to everything - if you are in the building trades, a real estate investor, or something like that, you might speculate that there is money to be made out in lower central or eastern PA.

I hate to be blunt. But stagnant growth IS VERY BAD for the economy. If your population is not growing, your economy is not growing. If your economy is not growing. That is just bad. (If our economy is not growing, Revenue does not go to the state. Which means there is even more pressure to pay for services).

Nearly all the growth is within the Lehigh Valley, Southeast PA counties (Philadelphia) and Harrisburg/Lancaster/York areas. The City of Philadelphia has actually been growing since 2010. I do agree the state needs to adopt a statewide land use planning policy, to preserve open space, and develop more walkable communities with smart growth strategies.

[sandritz6]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

I think you're right most likely. The state saw plenty of gains in the 90's and 2000's while this side of the state still fell. Maybe Butler and Allegheny County have been seeing small increases, but that's about it I think is likely.

Yeah I feel like Butler County is probably seeing decent increases due to much of its southern corridor booming, Washington maybe seeing small increase due to the whole 79 and 19 N corridor booming, Allegheny has been seeming to make a comeback primarily due to the whole north, west, and southwest portions of the county, with a few other exceptions such as Jefferson Hills, and some east (Harmar/Oakmont/Plum) been seeming to make a comeback. Beaver probably is seeing small decreases, except for maybe Economy Boro. Westmoreland probably is still seeing a decrease overall, except for maybe North Huntingdon. Armstrong, Fayette, and probably every other western PA county is still declining. I would agree that most of the growth is in the eastern part of the state, but some the places I mentioned maybe are helping a little.

[szug-bot]

Originally Posted by rowhomecity

I hate to be blunt. But stagnant growth IS VERY BAD for the economy. If your population is not growing, your economy is not growing. If your economy is not growing. That is just bad. (If our economy is not growing, Revenue does not go to the state. Which means there is even more pressure to pay for services).

It depends on your economic backbone. With manufacturing, you create wealth by selling your product.
Expansion through population growth may expand the economy, but then again you have that spread acorss more people, and that can also put strain on the quality of life by creating more demand of infrastructure, new or existing.

[Moby Hick]

Originally Posted by szug-bot

It depends on your economic backbone. With manufacturing, you create wealth by selling your product.
Expansion through population growth may expand the economy, but then again you have that spread acorss more people, and that can also put strain on the quality of life by creating more demand of infrastructure, new or existing.

Bringing in more people like me could create wealth by selling services and mostly just use the parts of the existing infrastructure that have been underutilized for decades (i.e. staying mostly Pittsburgh proper and never crossing a bridge).

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by sandritz6

Yeah I feel like Butler County is probably seeing decent increases due to much of its southern corridor booming, Washington maybe seeing small increase due to the whole 79 and 19 N corridor booming, Allegheny has been seeming to make a comeback primarily due to the whole north, west, and southwest portions of the county, with a few other exceptions such as Jefferson Hills, and some east (Harmar/Oakmont/Plum) been seeming to make a comeback. Beaver probably is seeing small decreases, except for maybe Economy Boro. Westmoreland probably is still seeing a decrease overall, except for maybe North Huntingdon. Armstrong, Fayette, and probably every other western PA county is still declining. I would agree that most of the growth is in the eastern part of the state, but some the places I mentioned maybe are helping a little.

IIRC even in Butler County, the birth rate has been falling and there is now a natural population decline. Only migration (mostly net migration from Allegheny County) is keeping the raw population totals from declining.