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Butler and to a lesser extent Washington County are being kept afloat by exurban growth (almost entirely due to net migration out of Allegheny County). Allegheny is a mixture of areas which are growing/holding their own and declining. The rest of the metro is falling off a cliff.
I took the liberty of going onto Census Factfinder and looking at the components of population change for Allegheny County last year:
Natural Increase: -1,045
International Migration: 3,105
Domestic Migration: -4,204
Total: -2,204
As has been the case in previous years, note that the domestic migration net loss is actually not bad for a major core county in the north. Our rate of domestic out-migration (-0.34%) is actually lower than Cook County in Illinois (-1.22%), or Brooklyn (-1.8%). As an aside Cook County as a whole was down last year by 0.5% (more than Allegheny County), and NYC seems to have lost nearly 40,000 people. But in those cases the decline seems to be entirely driven by the domestic migration outflow, coupled with a slowdown in immigration (which historically helped to cancel it out). In our case - even if it sounds like an excuse - more births than deaths continue to cause the metro to lag. If we had a normal birthrate Allegheny County at least would probably have a very small net gain, though the outer counties would likely still be losing population, resulting in a declining metro as a whole.
We have to wait awhile for the city estimates, but in past years Pittsburgh has generally had about a share of the county decline equal to its percentage of the total population - and the number of new housing starts has fallen in the city - leading me to presume the net decline in city population will be in the range of 500. I have seen census figures in the past year suggesting essentially the entire decline in city population in the 2010s - likely to be less than 2% - will be attributable to a rapid drop in the city's black population.
I've also been here for 10 years, and I've noticed traffic getting worse and worse.
In Etna, parking itself has been becoming more difficult and I've noticed the proliferation of households with multiple vehicles.
I was curious if there were more cars registered in Allegheny County, perhaps as a sign of the 'car-centric' lifestyle that many people on this board complain about.
If there are 25k fewer vehicles on the road, compared to a decade ago - why does it feel like congestion is simply becoming worse and worse?
Is it because the jobs are increasingly becoming clustered (Oakland, the Strip, East Liberty) and (due to topography combined with horrendous planning) there are only limited routes to navigate in this region?
I think you are right, esp in regards to places like the Strip District, which probably impacts your traffic the most being in Etna. There are hundreds of jobs and apartments in the Strip that were never there before.
I've also been here for 10 years, and I've noticed traffic getting worse and worse.
In Etna, parking itself has been becoming more difficult and I've noticed the proliferation of households with multiple vehicles.
I was curious if there were more cars registered in Allegheny County, perhaps as a sign of the 'car-centric' lifestyle that many people on this board complain about.
If there are 25k fewer vehicles on the road, compared to a decade ago - why does it feel like congestion is simply becoming worse and worse?
Is it because the jobs are increasingly becoming clustered (Oakland, the Strip, East Liberty) and (due to topography combined with horrendous planning) there are only limited routes to navigate in this region?
Very good reply. Thank you. I'm guessing it's because despite ~50% of Downtown workers taking transit there's still a ton of people who have to drive to work in the Strip, East Liberty, Shadyside, and Oakland (and soon Hazelwood, too) without convenient transit access to where they live. When your public transit system largely serves just Downtown, then you're going to have more congestion with more people trying to access job centers that are close to Downtown (but not close enough to Downtown to walk to) decide it's just easier to drive.
I mean one day a couple of weeks ago I was walking home up Liberty Avenue through the Strip. Traffic was backed up outbound during the PM rush the entire length extending out from Downtown up to at least 31st Street (couldn't see beyond that as I cross and walk up 28th Street to go home). That's an approximately 1.5-mile-long backlog of traffic (and they're going to be narrowing Liberty Avenue down to one lane in each direction soon). If the Strip continues to land tech anchors, then PAT is going to need to rethink things and plan more routes that service the Strip from more areas without requiring a transfer Downtown first.
Butler and to a lesser extent Washington County are being kept afloat by exurban growth (almost entirely due to net migration out of Allegheny County). Allegheny is a mixture of areas which are growing/holding their own and declining. The rest of the metro is falling off a cliff.
I took the liberty of going onto Census Factfinder and looking at the components of population change for Allegheny County last year:
Natural Increase: -1,045
International Migration: 3,105
Domestic Migration: -4,204
Total: -2,204
As has been the case in previous years, note that the domestic migration net loss is actually not bad for a major core county in the north. Our rate of domestic out-migration (-0.34%) is actually lower than Cook County in Illinois (-1.22%), or Brooklyn (-1.8%). As an aside Cook County as a whole was down last year by 0.5% (more than Allegheny County), and NYC seems to have lost nearly 40,000 people. But in those cases the decline seems to be entirely driven by the domestic migration outflow, coupled with a slowdown in immigration (which historically helped to cancel it out). In our case - even if it sounds like an excuse - more births than deaths continue to cause the metro to lag. If we had a normal birthrate Allegheny County at least would probably have a very small net gain, though the outer counties would likely still be losing population, resulting in a declining metro as a whole.
We have to wait awhile for the city estimates, but in past years Pittsburgh has generally had about a share of the county decline equal to its percentage of the total population - and the number of new housing starts has fallen in the city - leading me to presume the net decline in city population will be in the range of 500. I have seen census figures in the past year suggesting essentially the entire decline in city population in the 2010s - likely to be less than 2% - will be attributable to a rapid drop in the city's black population.
Thank you, as always, for your excellent insight. When BrianTH left this sub-forum years ago I was depressed, but you've quickly proven yourself to be just as---if not more than---insightful. We're all grateful for your contributions.
So your prediction is that the city will have continued its population decline from 2010-2020; however, the decline this time around is primarily going to be because of a decline in the black population? What is causing this? Is it a combination of the black death rate outpacing the black birth rate; continued "black flight" of upstanding blacks from Homewood; and poorer blacks being displaced (gentified) by wealthier Asians and Caucasians?
So your prediction is that the city will have continued its population decline from 2010-2020; however, the decline this time around is primarily going to be because of a decline in the black population? What is causing this? Is it a combination of the black death rate outpacing the black birth rate; continued "black flight" of upstanding blacks from Homewood; and poorer blacks being displaced (gentified) by wealthier Asians and Caucasians?
The biggest element is just the rate of population decline in the city has fallen a lot. In the 2000s we lost about 12% of the city population. This decade we'll likely lost about 2%. Obviously if we are only posting a slight loss any one demographic could be determinitive. Though the projected net decline is small enough that a slight gain (in the range of 1%) wouldn't surprise me either.
According to census figures though, from 2010 to 2017 Pittsburgh has lost 7,349 black residents - equal to 9.25% of its total black population. Note over the same period Pittsburgh as a whole only lost about 3,300 residents. This means the total nonblack population of the city is likely up by around 4,000.
Lots of different elements probably contribute to the decline, but the continued suburbanization of the black population of the metro is by far the strongest element. The eastern suburbs continue to be a draw for middle-class black Pittsburghers, and areas like the Turtle Creek Valley and Mon Valley continue to be a destination for poor black residents who leave the city (largely due to cheap rents and bus access). Other elements undoubtedly play a role as well, like an aging black population, falling birth rates (white and black birth rates aren't really different any longer nationally) and the rise in interracial births.
I think you are right, esp in regards to places like the Strip District, which probably impacts your traffic the most being in Etna. There are hundreds of jobs and apartments in the Strip that were never there before.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelCityRising
Very good reply. Thank you. I'm guessing it's because despite ~50% of Downtown workers taking transit there's still a ton of people who have to drive to work in the Strip, East Liberty, Shadyside, and Oakland (and soon Hazelwood, too) without convenient transit access to where they live. When your public transit system largely serves just Downtown, then you're going to have more congestion with more people trying to access job centers that are close to Downtown (but not close enough to Downtown to walk to) decide it's just easier to drive.
I mean one day a couple of weeks ago I was walking home up Liberty Avenue through the Strip. Traffic was backed up outbound during the PM rush the entire length extending out from Downtown up to at least 31st Street (couldn't see beyond that as I cross and walk up 28th Street to go home). That's an approximately 1.5-mile-long backlog of traffic (and they're going to be narrowing Liberty Avenue down to one lane in each direction soon). If the Strip continues to land tech anchors, then PAT is going to need to rethink things and plan more routes that service the Strip from more areas without requiring a transfer Downtown first.
I can't figure out what the problem with traffic is..
I hate hate hate dealing with the bus (its unreliable and on a fixed route - so if there is an accident on 28 you can just cancel all plans as the bus is going on 28 regardless.. at least in my car I have the freedom to make detours) - so although I work downtown I park in the Hill.
Parking was never a problem in the Hill before, though it has been getting more difficult since Mercy began its construction project. I've noticed that some of the privately owned parking lots on Fifth Ave in Uptown are either closed or are now up for sale to be developed. The development of Uptown is not going to help traffic woes.
From the Hill, I take Webster to Herron. I then take Herron down through Polish Hill to Liberty.
Usually, the light at Herron/Liberty is backed up about halfway across the bridge over the Busway. However, there have been times when its backed up the whole way to the 'S curve on Herron!
I then take the 31st St Bridge to get home. There's no rhyme or reason to traffic there either. Usually, traffic is backed up about 1/3 of the way across the bridge. However, there have been multiple occasions where traffic is backed up completely across the bridge into the Strip itself. Those instances are increasing.
So, I'm not sure where the traffic problems are coming from exactly.
It seems that its a combination of Oakland and also the Strip itself.
The problem is that everything in Pittsburgh funnels. There are few alternate routes.
If employment is spread out across the city, the transportation infrastructure can still function.
However, Pittsburgh is currently trying to dump more and more jobs into just a few funnels - but they're not increasing the size of the end of the funnels. Traffic is going to continue to get worse and worse.
And Mary, Mother of Jesus, please share info about reducing Liberty to one-lane...... that idea sounds like utter insanity
Butler and to a lesser extent Washington County are being kept afloat by exurban growth (almost entirely due to net migration out of Allegheny County). Allegheny is a mixture of areas which are growing/holding their own and declining. The rest of the metro is falling off a cliff.
I took the liberty of going onto Census Factfinder and looking at the components of population change for Allegheny County last year:
Natural Increase: -1,045
International Migration: 3,105
Domestic Migration: -4,204
Total: -2,204
As has been the case in previous years, note that the domestic migration net loss is actually not bad for a major core county in the north. Our rate of domestic out-migration (-0.34%) is actually lower than Cook County in Illinois (-1.22%), or Brooklyn (-1.8%). As an aside Cook County as a whole was down last year by 0.5% (more than Allegheny County), and NYC seems to have lost nearly 40,000 people. But in those cases the decline seems to be entirely driven by the domestic migration outflow, coupled with a slowdown in immigration (which historically helped to cancel it out). In our case - even if it sounds like an excuse - more births than deaths continue to cause the metro to lag. If we had a normal birthrate Allegheny County at least would probably have a very small net gain, though the outer counties would likely still be losing population, resulting in a declining metro as a whole.
We have to wait awhile for the city estimates, but in past years Pittsburgh has generally had about a share of the county decline equal to its percentage of the total population - and the number of new housing starts has fallen in the city - leading me to presume the net decline in city population will be in the range of 500. I have seen census figures in the past year suggesting essentially the entire decline in city population in the 2010s - likely to be less than 2% - will be attributable to a rapid drop in the city's black population.
So it’s really just the distant areas in decline. I don’t think many here even consider that Pittsburgh. It’s just a technicality that it’s part of the metro area
So it’s really just the distant areas in decline. I don’t think many here even consider that Pittsburgh. It’s just a technicality that it’s part of the metro area
Would people consider this Pittsburgh? Its in the metro, but clearly not really part of the Pittsburgh area.
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