New population estimates show city/county may not post loss in 2020 census... (Pittsburgh: crime, homes)

[eschaton]

SO, the latest American Community Survey numbers came out for both Pittsburgh and Allegheny County. Pittsburgh's population has increased substantially from the last estimate of 301,048. It's now up to 303,587 - still below the 305,704 from 2010, but it made up basically half of the net loss in one year. Allegheny County also appears to have grown by around 2,000 for the decade.

At the same time, WESA has noted this data suggests that Pittsburgh is hemmoraging black residents. I mean, check this out:



Keep in mind that back in 2010 Pittsburgh had slightly less than 80,000 black residents. Therefore Pittsburgh's lost something like 9% of its total black population over the course of a single decade.

As I've said in the past, if Pittsburgh loses population this decade, it's entirely attributable to black population loss. The white population is more or less stagnant (almost certainly growing in terms of households) and the Asian/other population is booming). If a few less black people were being displaced, we'd certainly be above 2010 numbers today.

[erieguy]

So the often used reason of “old people are dying faster than they can be replaced here” isn’t a valid reason?

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by erieguy

So the often used reason of “old people are dying faster than they can be replaced here” isn’t a valid reason?

Interesting isn’t it?

The region has an old population, job growth is non existent, single family home construction is the lowest it’s been here in decades an no in migration of population. Pittsburgh public schools has 6,000 less students in 2019 than in 2010. Pittsburgh is somehow going to overcome all of that and post only losses of 2,000 people.

Do people drive through, carrick, Allentown, beltzhoover, homewood, Sheridan , Marshall Shadeland, Perry hilltop and observatory hill? You can’t tell me with a straight face you dont believe those areas haven’t lost a few thousand people combined since 2010.

The south side boomed in the 2000s. It has more dense and available housing than the coveted Lawrenceville. The southside grew by 15 percent adding 900+ residents from 2000 to 2010. The city still declined overall by 8.6 percent losing 28,000 residents.

The new growth in Lawrenceville and East Liberty is not going to offset losses from elsewhere.

I think 2020 could be the trifecta census. City below 300K, county below 1.2 million and metro below 2.3 million.

The data with the economy, in migration, school enrollment declines and new single family homes construction data don’t fit the narrative the city only loses 2,000 residents.

The whole census estimates thing with Pittsburgh over the decade parallels the 2016 election when folks thought there was no way trump could possibly win, we are becoming more liberal as a country and so forth. Well it caught everybody by surprise. If Pittsburgh loses 20,000 residents or more there will be people totally shocked on here. Even so that would be the lowest the city had declined in decades. Data and estimates don’t match up. Somebody is way off on their calculations. We will see in a few months.

[erieguy]

I’m genuinely curious about it as it’s been brought up as a reason for many years.

[gg]

Great news overall if accurate. I think a steady population at this time is great and it is also nice to see Pittsburgh becoming more diverse with an increase in the Asian population which is certainly welcome. They seem to contribute a lot and do very well in our welcoming city and add some foreign flare.

Also it seems crime is dropping quite a bit on aside note. Not many murders this year and in general things are getting cleaner and nicer other than our homeless population that I wish we would curb. As Pittsburgh becomes more expensive it will become desirable. Now if we could just fix the school system the city would really take off.

Thanks for the info.

[sealie]

Erieguy:
Somewhat old data broken down by age group.
https://www.alleghenyinstitute.org/p...es-since-2000/

Scroll down to the table.Increase in young adults and young retirees, as you’d expect.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by erieguy

So the often used reason of “old people are dying faster than they can be replaced here” isn’t a valid reason?

Metro wide it's still the case, but it's not been the dynamic related to city population loss since at least 2000. The city keeps on getting younger and younger, on the backs of a growing college student population and more recently big growth in the 25-49 demographic. As the chart shows, the real dynamic causing city population loss is black flight. Also declining household size (less children overall - both black and white people have small families these days). It's hard to determine if the city proper has more births than deaths, because the Census does not track data at lower than county level.

Note that if Allegheny County grows by a few thousand while Pittsburgh shrinks by a few thousand, the results on both sides are attributable to gentrification in the city though. East End gentrification resulted in younger, wealthier white people moving in, which displaced poor black people. They in turn moved to places like Turtle Creek, East Pittsburgh, and Wilmerding, which slowed down net population loss for the non-city part of the county.

[gg]

Originally Posted by eschaton

East End gentrification resulted in younger, wealthier white people moving in, which displaced poor black people.

Do you spend time in East Liberty much? Not sure why you would say, "white people" when the white population is declining. I see a large number of Asians staying in the East Liberty area, so I would say the Asian population is gentrifying areas that at one time were mostly black for the past 50 years. Of course before that those areas were mostly all white and built by the "white population" back when Pittsburgh was a global force.

It is nice to see diversity in our city. Who knows, will we have a China town again? Probably not, but it is nice to see our city become more worldly. The Asians seem to do quite well here, but I am not sure in what field they are predominately in? Education? Music? Food industry? All the above? They always seem to be smiling and happy when I see them in groups in East Liberty.

[sealie]

Originally Posted by gg

. The Asians seem to do quite well here, but I am not sure in what field they are predominately in? Education? Music? Food industry? All the above? They always seem to be smiling and happy when I see them in groups in East Liberty.

I’m surprised you didn’t think of tech. There are probably more Asians in CMU’s technical majors than there are whites. Certainly more in robotics.

[SteelCityRising]

Wait. I thought gentrification wasn’t happening in our East End neighborhoods?!