New population estimates show city/county may not post loss in 2020 census... (Pittsburgh: apartment, condos)

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by eschaton

In general, I think that metropolitan population growth is tied to job growth. I mean, its hard for a shrinking metro area to have real job growth, because so many jobs are service-based and explicitly tied to the number of customers/students/patients in the area. Less people, less jobs. Similarly even if you have domestic migration which is being spurred by something other than workforce relocation (like say having a lot of retirees) that population demand will spur demand in areas like health care, leading to more local job growth.

Within a metropolitan area, however, things can be quite different. Population growth within a metro isn't even necessarily linked with desirability, because a lot of the most desirable areas act like Fox Chapel and set up zoning constraints to ensure the area never gets "too dense." Instead building flows to wherever demand is relatively high and zoning is relatively loose. In recent years, this has led to a disproportionate share of new construction within Allegheny County being within city limits (both units of housing and office space). Now, this doesn't necessarily mean growth on the residential side if the "other half" of the city is canceling it out. But anyone can easily see that at the very least there's going to be 2-3 times as many neighborhoods which post population gains in 2020 than was the case in 2010.

What neighborhoods do you speak of postings gains other than Lawrenceville and East Liberty?

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

What neighborhoods do you speak of postings gains other than Lawrenceville and East Liberty?

I’m guessing:

Strip District (massive growth over 2010)
South Shore (Glasshouse Apartments)
South Side Flats
Downtown
Lower Lawrenceville
Central Lawrenceville
Shadyside
Friendship (Baumhaus)
East Liberty
Squirrel Hill South (Summerset at Frick Park)
Duquesne Heights (Bradley Street Townhomes)
Bloomfield (Morrow Park City Apartments)
North Oakland
Central Oakland
South Oakland

Polish Hill will be added to this list for growth from 2020-2030 as two major residential projects near the Herron Avenue Busway Station are being proposed to help alleviate the housing shortage here. It will show a loss from 2010-2020, however.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

I’m guessing:

Strip District (massive growth over 2010)
South Shore (Glasshouse Apartments)
South Side Flats
Downtown
Lower Lawrenceville
Central Lawrenceville
Shadyside
Friendship (Baumhaus)
East Liberty
Squirrel Hill South (Summerset at Frick Park)
Duquesne Heights (Bradley Street Townhomes)
Bloomfield (Morrow Park City Apartments)
North Oakland
Central Oakland
South Oakland

Polish Hill will be added to this list for growth from 2020-2030 as two major residential projects near the Herron Avenue Busway Station are being proposed to help alleviate the housing shortage here. It will show a loss from 2010-2020, however.

Do you believe these neighborhoods added thousands and thousands of people? Some of them don’t have the capacity to do so from 2010 to 2020

What is massive growth for the strip district? 616 people called the Strip District home in 2010. It is one of least populated in the city. They are estimating an addition of 400 residents from 2010 to 2023

https://www.nextpittsburgh.com/featu...cture-keep-up/

I think those neighborhoods could add a few dozen to maybe a few hundred residents. Is it enough to offset losses in Perry Hilltop, Observatory Hill, Sheridan and most other west neighborhoods, or the south hills neighborhoods like carrick? Brookline is considered stable and has been so for a few decades now. It lost roughly 1000 residents from 2000 to 2010.

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

Do you believe these neighborhoods added thousands and thousands of people? Some of them don’t have the capacity to do so from 2010 to 2020

What is massive growth for the strip district? 616 people called the Strip District home in 2010. It is one of least populated in the city. They are estimating an addition of 400 residents from 2010 to 2023

https://www.nextpittsburgh.com/featu...cture-keep-up/

I think those neighborhoods could add a few dozen to maybe a few hundred residents. Is it enough to offset losses in Perry Hilltop, Observatory Hill, Sheridan and most other west neighborhoods, or the south hills neighborhoods like carrick? Brookline is considered stable and has been so for a few decades now. It lost roughly 1000 residents from 2000 to 2010.

I’ll defer to Eschaton overall, but the Strip District probably will have around 3,000 residents in 2020. Most of those 616 residents in 2010 lived in the Cork Factory Lofts. Since 2010 the Strip District has seen the addition of Lot 24, The Yards at 3 Crossings, The Refinery, Edge 1909, and a few other developments. Some people may be living in the new townhouses behind the Produce Terminal by the time the census is taken.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

I’ll defer to Eschaton overall, but the Strip District probably will have around 3,000 residents in 2020. Most of those 616 residents in 2010 lived in the Cork Factory Lofts. Since 2010 the Strip District has seen the addition of Lot 24, The Yards at 3 Crossings, The Refinery, Edge 1909, and a few other developments. Some people may be living in the new townhouses behind the Produce Terminal by the time the census is taken.

I doubt there is anywhere near enough residential in the Strip to add that amount of people. Even if it wanted to. Again I go back to the 2010 census where the south side went gangbusters growing by 15 percent. They have the housing capacity down there and it translated to 900 new residents.

There are 90 neighborhoods in the city. Basically the estimates are saying over 90 neighborhoods the average loss per neighborhood would be around 20 people each. I highly doubt it.

If 90 neighborhoods lost an average across the board of 100 people, which is likely that is -9,000 residents for the city.

Realistically the average loss of residents per neighborhood will probably fall between 150 and 300 people, which is anywhere from 13,500 to 27,000 residents lost in the city. Even so this numbers would be an improvement over the last census. The city has averaged over 300 people lost per neighborhood on average since the 1950s including census 2010.

I don’t think these estimates are capturing what goes on the in forgotten areas of the city. As you see 100 folks lost over the city per average in each neighborhood may not seem a lot, but it can balloon population loss numbers quickly.

[gg]

I am not sure why people are getting so hung up on if the city is gaining or losing a tiny bit of population? We are never going to be some big growth city. IMHO, the most important thing in our city is to have hard working people living in the city and for the city to improve, which is obviously happening. Does anyone have any sort of average income numbers by year for Pittsburgh to see if we are improving, so we can continually see the quality of life increase? Also, how does the huge student population play into those numbers? I could care less about gaining or losing a few hundred people. Meaningless.

If you compare Pittsburgh to Cleveland, we are doing great.

Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

I’m guessing:

Strip District (massive growth over 2010)
South Shore (Glasshouse Apartments)
South Side Flats
Downtown
Lower Lawrenceville
Central Lawrenceville
Shadyside
Friendship (Baumhaus)
East Liberty
Squirrel Hill South (Summerset at Frick Park)
Duquesne Heights (Bradley Street Townhomes)
Bloomfield (Morrow Park City Apartments)
North Oakland
Central Oakland
South Oakland

Polish Hill will be added to this list for growth from 2020-2030 as two major residential projects near the Herron Avenue Busway Station are being proposed to help alleviate the housing shortage here. It will show a loss from 2010-2020, however.

I would not include Duquense Heights. Townhouse infill projects - even larger ones - are typically not big enough to cancel out declining household size.

However, I would include a few other neighborhoods.

Allegheny Center has probably grown. There is no new construction, but back in 2010 one of the four residential highrises was totally vacant. It was formerly used as dorm space, then vacated. The new property management has rehabbed it and it is fully occupied.

In addition, I'd say neighborhoods like Uptown and West Oakland are hard to predict because so much of the population is in group quarters (dorms, prisons, etc) meaning I can't make a solid prediction.

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

I’ll defer to Eschaton overall, but the Strip District probably will have around 3,000 residents in 2020. Most of those 616 residents in 2010 lived in the Cork Factory Lofts. Since 2010 the Strip District has seen the addition of Lot 24, The Yards at 3 Crossings, The Refinery, Edge 1909, and a few other developments. Some people may be living in the new townhouses behind the Produce Terminal by the time the census is taken.

Certainly at least 2,000. I think 3,000 is less likely.

In terms of added units:

Edge 1909: 385 units
The Yards: 300 units
Lot 24: 96 units
Penn Rose apartment conversion: 74 units
Otto Milk Condos: 60 units (completed in 2010 - probably no residents in time of census)
Refinery Condos:37 units
2500 Smallman: 9 units

That comes up to 961 units. This is still a slight undershot, due to some projects like the townhouses still being under construction and move-in ready by the census, and smaller residential projects like the apartments above Indovina's offices I didn't track. Let's say 1,000 units. 1.5 per unit comes to 1,500 residents, which means an estimated population of around 2,100.

[PghYinzer]

I haven’t driven thru the area in a while, but is Observatory Hill empty these days? Just because an area isn’t super poplar doesn’t mean it is emptying out.

[runpens1]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

I agree. Either the jobs numbers are way off in the Pittsburgh area or the census estimates are way off. History has shown the census bureau has always underestimated growth and decline.

The population doesn’t magically grow without job growth leading to in migration.


We will see in 2020, but I think the census bureau is wishful thinking for Pittsburgh. In 2009 the census bureau estimated Pittsburgh at 312K and the city of Cleveland around 412k. They were off by 8,000 in Pittsburgh and 25,000 in Cleveland. They estimated both those cities higher than what they were.

I’m interested in seeing the census numbers. If the job growth is stagnant and in migration is a huge negative I can see losses of 20,000 city and 40,000 for the county easily. The neighborhoods I mentioned are huge chunks of city population. None of them are doing well and people are struggling mightily. I think Sheridan can lose 1,000 or more residents itself. It’s a ghost town over there.

Maybe I’m wrong and the city only loses 2,000. If that’s the case they are totally wrong on job growth and in migration numbers.





Your estimate is fair and if true that would be the best census in decades for the city and county. I’m estimating 20,000 less for the city and 40,000 less for the county. The metro may hang on above 2.3 but just by hairs. Even my estimates would be the best the city and county have done in decades.

There would have to be so much inmigration to the region. It would literally have to overwhelm the city and county to break even with more deaths than births

So if the metro area will still be that high, do you think Butler and Washington counties growth will be much higher and the Westmoreland losses aren't as bad as what the estimates are saying?

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by PghYinzer

I haven’t driven thru the area in a while, but is Observatory Hill empty these days? Just because an area isn’t super poplar doesn’t mean it is emptying out.

I doubt it, but you have to remember this this forum has someone living in West Virginia openly rooting for the city to fail as they live in a county that the Census is estimating to have lost 5% of its population in this decade.