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Could it be possible that people in America will start to stay closer to home when they shop and play instead of driving outside of town now that fuel prices are going through the roof?
And how will this impact Pittsburgh area communities? I am thinking of relocating to Ellwood City or Vandergrift and I am wondering if people will start to spend money in their local stores instead of driving half an hour to a distant Mall or to shop at Wal Fart. It won't be all that cost effective to shop out of town now because all the apparent savings previously realized will now be going to the oil companies.
Prior to the era of the superhighway people worked and shopped right in the town or close to where they lived. All that changed once every house had two cars and commuting to distant cities or destinations several miles from home became much easier.
If people start to stay home to shop we could see a real positive impact in our local towns.
The basic problem is that the firms in most industries currently required enough scale such that many people will have to work in a different place from the community in which they live. Basically that is simply because a given person's local residential community may not be able to supply enough employees for firms of the necessary scale--except perhaps for in "company towns", but those are inherently unstable because few companies last for long periods of time.
As an aside, sometimes people wonder why we couldn't all just live in massive high-rises, but that is actually an energy-intensive approach as well: once you get past just the first few floors, the marginal energy costs of additional floors start increasing thanks to the need for things like elevators, higher-capacity HVAC systems, stronger structures, and so on. As another aside, maybe things like "telecommuting" will eventually change all this, but so far a lot of businesses have found that telecommuting only works in limited applications. So, as long as people need to get together to work, and as long as most firms will need to be of a certain scale, we will have a lot of people physically commuting for work.
Accordingly, I think the logical conclusion is that the communities most likely to become more attractive as a result of higher energy prices in the short-to-medium term are the ones linked by public transit to the major local employment centers. That is because public transit generally saves a lot on energy costs per passenger-mile. Indeed, I believe ridership on public transportation has been steadily increasing since gasoline prices ran up, and the greatest effect will likely come once enough people have had the occasion to choose a new residence based in part on energy costs (meaning most people won't move just in response to higher energy costs, but if they are moving anyway, they will take those higher costs into consideration). And there tend to be feedback cycles with this sort of thing (e.g., higher demand for a community because it offers public transit commutes likely means higher property values, which eventually means more money for the local schools, which might eventually mean better schools and thus even more demand for the community).
And that commuting effect is likely to dominate any considerations related to shopping and entertainment, because reducing drive-alone commuting is by far the easiest way for most households to save on vehicle-related energy costs. That said, obviously public transit can be used for shopping and entertainment purposes as well. And having walkable shopping and entertainment options is indeed attractive (for not just energy-related reasons), and many such amenities can be supported on a small scale, down to "corner stores", local parks, restaurants, and so on.
Finally, on the subject of small towns: I think fundamentally with rural employment way down from its peak percentages, it should be expected that fewer people will end up living in small towns. Of course, some former farming, logging, mining, mill, and so on towns can reinvent themselves as tourism centers, and some are government centers, and some are college towns, and so on. But overall, the economy has shifted such that many small towns are no longer economically sustainable. And high energy prices won't help, because to the extent some of these small towns were hoping to reinvent themselves as bedroom communities, that may be less likely to occur unless they get linked up to the regionally-important employment centers with public transit.
So, I am not terribly bullish on the prospects of small towns overall in light of high energy prices (particularly in comparison to, say, inner suburbs and new infill communities). But again, there will be exceptions for the small towns that find a new economic justification.
Could it be possible that people in America will start to stay closer to home when they shop and play instead of driving outside of town now that fuel prices are going through the roof?
And how will this impact Pittsburgh area communities? I am thinking of relocating to Ellwood City or Vandergrift and I am wondering if people will start to spend money in their local stores instead of driving half an hour to a distant Mall or to shop at Wal Fart. It won't be all that cost effective to shop out of town now because all the apparent savings previously realized will now be going to the oil companies.
Prior to the era of the superhighway people worked and shopped right in the town or close to where they lived. All that changed once every house had two cars and commuting to distant cities or destinations several miles from home became much easier.
If people start to stay home to shop we could see a real positive impact in our local towns.
What's your perspective on this?
The problem with this, is that many of the smaller towns have been decimated by big box stores. You might find some boutique type stores, antique stores and quilt shops, but the day to day stuff you need to live isn't there anymore.
That's happened a lot out here.
As to what will happen I can't say, but I do know that we won't return to the 50's -- the barn door was left open far too long, and that horse is gone.
We might return to the days where you planned your shopping trips carefully, planned your menus to make sure you had everything you needed and instead of filling your days with mindless shopping you stay at home.
People are also finding it easier to shop from home online for basics like laundry detergent and paper products.
It won't be all that cost effective to shop out of town now because all the apparent savings previously realized will now be going to the oil companies.
With W-Mart within say a ten mile drive of almost anyone, we'll be shopping there as long as they'll have our remaining dollars. Small town grocery stores can't and won't deal in a way W-Mart can. Pick ten items you use regularly. Price them at your local indy market and then price them again at your nearest W-Mart. Same brands and sizes, no substitutions. Compare the difference, calculate for your gas costs. Even with just the ten items you should still come out ahead by going to W-Mart.
What I see is that instead of running hither, thither and yon for this and that every single day, smart folks will make lists and do it all at once. One load and done. Also, the very opposite of what you're suggesting could happen. If people consolidate their orders to save, the local stores could suffer greatly. Remember, their already "captive audience " prices have to go up too.
With W-Mart within say a ten mile drive of almost anyone, we'll be shopping there as long as they'll have our remaining dollars. Small town grocery stores can't and won't deal in a way W-Mart can. Pick ten items you use regularly. Price them at your local indy market and then price them again at your nearest W-Mart. Same brands and sizes, no substitutions. Compare the difference, calculate for your gas costs. Even with just the ten items you should still come out ahead by going to W-Mart.
What I see is that instead of running hither, thither and yon for this and that every single day, smart folks will make lists and do it all at once. One load and done. Also, the very opposite of what you're suggesting could happen. If people consolidate their orders to save, the local stores could suffer greatly. Remember, their already "captive audience " prices have to go up too.
We never got into the WallyWorld habit -- our local one smells. No -- literally. It's a 1/2 mile away from the local garbage dump. And the dump smell -- I can't even think about it without getting sick.
They also haven't made inroads into selling food here. They sell junk food.
Do you have Smart and Final back there? Their prices kick butt...
We never got into the WallyWorld habit -- our local one smells. No -- literally. It's a 1/2 mile away from the local garbage dump. And the dump smell -- I can't even think about it without getting sick.
Do you have Smart and Final back there? Their prices kick butt...
There's a couple of good jokes to be made but darn if I can think of one now. Oh well, another chance lost.
Smart and Final, no, not around here. Shame, looks good from their website.
Don't worry... vote for Senator Barack Obama and he will fix it. If Pennsylvanians go for Senator Obama today, that will end these primaries and we'll get some real news again (atleast until August).
Don't worry... vote for Senator Barack Obama and he will fix it. If Pennsylvanians go for Senator Obama today, that will end these primaries and we'll get some real news again (atleast until August).
I'll be so happy when this is over. A shameless plug that adds nothing to this conversation.
The problem with this, is that many of the smaller towns have been decimated by big box stores. You might find some boutique type stores, antique stores and quilt shops, but the day to day stuff you need to live isn't there anymore.
That's happened a lot out here.
As to what will happen I can't say, but I do know that we won't return to the 50's -- the barn door was left open far too long, and that horse is gone.
We might return to the days where you planned your shopping trips carefully, planned your menus to make sure you had everything you needed and instead of filling your days with mindless shopping you stay at home.
People are also finding it easier to shop from home online for basics like laundry detergent and paper products.
A lot of the 'working outside the home homemakers' like my coworkers and I do this already. There is simply no time to run to the store for every little thing. I long ago developed the policy of changing my dinner plans if I didn't have some vital ingredient. I rarely make impulse trips to the grocery store. I like to get my detergents and cleaning stuff at Sam's Club. I keep it in my garage till I need it.
I agree there will be no big return to small town America. Though I loved shopping in downtown Beaver Falls as a little girl, I like the choices I have at the big malls. Want it in a different color? Try another store. Want a different brand? Ditto. We didn't have that back there, back then. The choices were usually "take it or don't get anything".
I think the number of people driving hours to jobs is a little overstated. (Well, maybe not in SoCal, but that's a different world, LOL.) I live in a suburb and work in the same burb, 4 1/2 miles away. I think women are more likely to work closer to home than men b/c we have more of the homemaking and child care responsibilities. My DH currently works about 6 miles from home, but has worked up to 30 mi, which was a one hour drive. Perhaps more mass transit will be built if demand goes up.
I think that the Pittsburgh region is fortunate that we don't have overly-long commutes when comparesdwith Los Angeles, Atlanta, Dallas, etc. I can't imagine what those people spend every month on gas when they have a 30-mile treck one way! And even though Pittsburgh is a lot more spread out into the suburban counties than it used to be, we're still below the national average in commute length. My commute from Shadyside to Oakland is about a mile, and I walk it on nice days like today. Most people in this part of town use the bus to get to work because it's easier. I haven't even spent $40 for gas this month. I realize that's kind of unusual, since most people change jobs and can't move close to their new job every time. We probably won't go back to the days where everyone worked in the same neighborhood or town where they live, but we may be able to slow the unrelenting and inefficient new development where people have to drive long distances to get anywhere.
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