Coronavirus - Pittsburgh news (solution, percent, medical, places)

[Enough_Already]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Trolling is one thing - but people are going to die if they listen to Independentthinking83's advice here.

The whole reason everything is being shut down now - before things are too bad - is to make sure that we don't end up like Italy - who did almost nothing until it was far too late.

I mean, look at it this way. At this point, right now, your chance of meeting a sick person in Pittsburgh might be 1 in 10,000. But the virus appears to double the number of infected every 5.5 days - and people can be asymptomatic for up to two weeks - meaning by the time the crisis looks bad enough to "do something" it's going to be 2-4 times worse before you even succeed in starting to bend the growth in cases downward.

In 2009 60 million people were infected with H1N1 yet the media and government did not create this kind of hysteria. We may look back on this time period and realize the reaction to this virus did much more damage than the virus itself. There are definitely political agenda overtones to the reaction to this situation.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Enough_Already

In 2009 60 million people were infected with H1N1 yet the media and government did not create this kind of hysteria. We may look back on this time period and realize the reaction to this virus did much more damage than the virus itself. There are definitely political agenda overtones to the reaction to this situation.

I hope you're right. Because it's better to have an overreaction and "I told you sos" from people like you than it is to risk doing too little and having hundreds of thousands of deaths.

The economy can come back from a V-shaped recession. People can't come back from the dead.

[chao]

that's probably what Italy thought at end of Jan when they found their first case of Covid19
"oh well, it's only 1 case, why panic, it's all overreact"

looking now Italy with 368 covid death in 1 day......

on top of that, H1N1 death rate is 0.02%, hospitalizations 0.4%, ....now you may want check Covid19 death and hospitalizations rate.

I am glad and hope government will enforce more regulation on stopping the virus, because it can go to 60m if nothing was done.

unfortunately we still have a lot people who don't treat this serious and with most people lack knowledge of how to prevent it.

[Enough_Already]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I hope you're right. Because it's better to have an overreaction and "I told you sos" from people like you than it is to risk doing too little and having hundreds of thousands of deaths.

The economy can come back from a V-shaped recession. People can't come back from the dead.

Many of the people out of work live paycheck to paycheck and many get most of their income from tips. When all the numbers are added up this will have a death rate of less than 1% and it will be skeyed to a couple groups. It is very likely the economic carnage is going to be far more devistating.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by chao

that's probably what Italy thought at end of Jan when they found their first case of Covid19
"oh well, it's only 1 case, why panic, it's all overreact"

looking now Italy with 368 covid death in 1 day......

on top of that, H1N1 death rate is 0.02%, hospitalizations 0.4%, ....now you may want check Covid19 death and hospitalizations rate.

I am glad and hope government will enforce more regulation on stopping the virus, because it can go to 60m if nothing was done.

unfortunately we still have a lot people who don't treat this serious and with most people lack knowledge of how to prevent it.

Yep, and this is why all of these closures needed to be forced.

If you don't think 20% of people needing hospitalization for this who test positive isn't going to be an insane strain on the system, I don't know what else to say.

[Enough_Already]

Originally Posted by chao

that's probably what Italy thought at end of Jan when they found their first case of Covid19
"oh well, it's only 1 case, why panic, it's all overreact"

looking now Italy with 368 covid death in 1 day......

on top of that, H1N1 death rate is 0.02%, hospitalizations 0.4%, ....now you may want check Covid19 death and hospitalizations rate.

I am glad and hope government will enforce more regulation on stopping the virus, because it can go to 60m if nothing was done.

unfortunately we still have a lot people who don't treat this serious and with most people lack knowledge of how to prevent it.

The population in Italy is older and has a much higher rate of smoking. In 2009 we had 60 million infections and deaths in five figures but the media and government did not create mass panic. Since a large % of people have mild or no symptoms and are never counted, the real death rate is under one percent.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by Enough_Already

In 2009 60 million people were infected with H1N1 yet the media and government did not create this kind of hysteria. We may look back on this time period and realize the reaction to this virus did much more damage than the virus itself. There are definitely political agenda overtones to the reaction to this situation.

I couldn’t agree more. I expect more people to be harmed by the economic fallout afterward than the virus itself harming people. Watch and see. This is what’s going to happen. It’s going to be nowhere near as bad as people expect. Then things won’t recover and won’t return to normal as quickly then we will hear the complaints about people who can’t pay bills or afford to put food on the table. More jobs and companies lost.

The panic is more damaging than the virus itself at this point.

[Enough_Already]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

Yep, and this is why all of these closures needed to be forced.

If you don't think 20% of people needing hospitalization for this who test positive isn't going to be an insane strain on the system, I don't know what else to say.

80% of the infected people are never tested or counted because their symptoms are mild or they have no symptoms at all. That makes your number greatly overstated.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by Enough_Already

80% of the infected people are never tested or counted because their symptoms are mild or they have no symptoms at all. That makes your number greatly overstated.

And the country of Italy population is 532 people per square mile. In US it is 90 people per square mile. That is a big difference.

320,000,000 residents of the US. Population percentage confirmed to have corona virus 0.000013%

Percentage of Allegheny County residents confirmed to have the virus. 0.000003%

Percentage of Pittsburgh Metro residents confirmed to have the virus. 0.000002%

[gg]

Originally Posted by eschaton

But the virus appears to double the number of infected every 5.5 days - and people can be asymptomatic for up to two weeks - meaning by the time the crisis looks bad enough to "do something" it's going to be 2-4 times worse before you even succeed in starting to bend the growth in cases downward.

I do think we should listen to the experts for sure.

I also want to caution people that the numbers in Allegheny County might look like they are skyrocketing because there are now at least three drive through testing places nearby and that means a lot more people will test in the comfort of their car. This virus could have been in our region for a long time, but we will never really know.

Listen to our leaders and relax. Good time to read a book or several.