COVID 19 stats - ALLEGHENY COUNTY and beyond (Pittsburgh, York: mortgage, loan)

[szug-bot]

as of 4-4-2020, new cases reported each day for last 9 days:

45, 25, 61, 46, 25, 35, 31, 63, 57, 76

but, yeah, this is all a conspiracy by the media and whatnot.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by szug-bot

as of 4-4-2020, new cases reported each day for last 9 days:

45, 25, 61, 46, 25, 35, 31, 63, 57, 76

but, yeah, this is all a conspiracy by the media and whatnot.

Conspiracy by the media? Nope, just extreme fear mongering for ratings.

How many people have recovered from the virus? What’s the survival rate?

How many people get and/or die from the flu each day?

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by erieguy

Conspiracy by the media? Nope, just extreme fear mongering for ratings.

How many people have recovered from the virus? What’s the survival rate?

How many people get and/or die from the flu each day?

Agreed.

500 cases in a county with 1.2 million people. What percentage is that? 3 deaths in a county of 1.2 million people. What percentage is that?

Pennsylvania 12.8 million people, Ohio 11.7 million people. A total of 24 million people combined between two states. A grand total of roughly 13,000 cases between two states. And less than 250 deaths. Those percentages are very tiny. Barely even registered as any meaningful percentage.

I know what we are told and all the hype. I think it is a bad virus, but this isn’t a doomsday disease either. The numbers don’t back up the mass panic. It just isn’t there. We have been in this for over 3 weeks now. Nobody is dying in the streets yet. This appears to be way overblown as a doomsday disease. We gave away the economy for this.

Italy has a population of 60.5 million people in a country 4 times as densely populated as the United States. A total of 15,000 deaths. Those that died in Italy from this virus are 0.0002% of the population. The numbers just don’t support this as doomsday. It’s overblown.... there is more to this hype than meets the eye and I’m convinced it isn’t the danger of the virus either.

[WhoIsStanwix?]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

Agreed.

500 cases in a county with 1.2 million people. What percentage is that? 3 deaths in a county of 1.2 million people. What percentage is that?

Pennsylvania 12.8 million people, Ohio 11.7 million people. A total of 24 million people combined between two states. A grand total of roughly 13,000 cases between two states. And less than 250 deaths. Those percentages are very tiny. Barely even registered as any meaningful percentage.

I know what we are told and all the hype. I think it is a bad virus, but this isn’t a doomsday disease either. The numbers don’t back up the mass panic. It just isn’t there. We have been in this for over 3 weeks now. Nobody is dying in the streets yet. This appears to be way overblown as a doomsday disease. We gave away the economy for this.

Italy has a population of 60.5 million people in a country 4 times as densely populated as the United States. A total of 15,000 deaths. Those that died in Italy from this virus are 0.0002% of the population. The numbers just don’t support this as doomsday. It’s overblown.... there is more to this hype than meets the eye and I’m convinced it isn’t the danger of the virus either.

Italy has been on lockdown for a month. What will the death rate look like when they open Italy back up? Recent estimates state that the number of deaths are understated by 2-4x, by the way. People die at home never tested, and there’s no room in the hospitals for them. How is no space in hospitals not a crisis?

PA is going on being shut down for business for 3 weeks. Ohio slightly longer. What do hospitalization and death counts look like without the shut down?

Things are playing out exactly as predicted. The body count is lower than the doomsday scenario so far precisely because people significantly reduced interaction. Because you can’t accurately measure that which could have happened but did not, people are complaining of an overreaction. Also exactly as experts said would happen.

This lockdown is intended to bide some time while ventilator availability, temporary hospital beds, testing capacity and PPE production ramp up. Meanwhile, experimental treatments will start having small clinical trial results read out in mid May. Once those things happen, the economy can gradually open up and the death toll can be minimized somewhat due to having more tools available.

[Kippy]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

Italy has a population of 60.5 million people in a country 4 times as densely populated as the United States. A total of 15,000 deaths. Those that died in Italy from this virus are 0.0002% of the population. The numbers just don’t support this as doomsday. It’s overblown.... there is more to this hype than meets the eye and I’m convinced it isn’t the danger of the virus either.

15,000 deaths out of a population of 60.5 million would mean that .025% of the population died; still a relatively small number, but two orders of magnitude greater than the figure you provided.

[szug-bot]

some of you are missing the point. yes, statistically, this is not the Black Death.

but when do these numbers slow down? only 50 or so tomorrow? sure, not bad. but then the next day 30, the next day 35, the next day 25, the next day 60....

so AT THIS POINT we are not talking about the next mass extinction, but i feel you (plural) are being a bit overconfident, if not cocky, and naive.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by szug-bot

some of you are missing the point. yes, statistically, this is not the Black Death.

but when do these numbers slow down? only 50 or so tomorrow? sure, not bad. but then the next day 30, the next day 35, the next day 25, the next day 60....

so AT THIS POINT we are not talking about the next mass extinction, but i feel you (plural) are being a bit overconfident, if not cocky, and naive.

Nobody said it isn’t a problem.

Still waiting for flu numbers and percentages versus the virus.

[Kippy]

Originally Posted by szug-bot

some of you are missing the point. yes, statistically, this is not the Black Death.

but when do these numbers slow down? only 50 or so tomorrow? sure, not bad. but then the next day 30, the next day 35, the next day 25, the next day 60....

so AT THIS POINT we are not talking about the next mass extinction, but i feel you (plural) are being a bit overconfident, if not cocky, and naive.

We won’t know anything for sure until it is all over. Similarly, won’t know when it will end until after it has ended.

How long can we stay locked down? At what point does the economic devastation become worse than the virus?

There has never been a successful Coronavirus vaccine; who is to say that they’ll be able to find one? The SARS1 vaccines that they came up with made it worse. Even if they do come up with one, even with fast tracking, it will be over a year before it can be disseminated to the public. They can’t rush it only to find out, oops, the vaccine has horrible side effects. Even if they find one, they’ll need to manufacture a dose for every human on Earth. I can only imagine how long that will take.

There is such a huge focus on ventilators, but reports seem to indicate if it goes that far, your chances for survival are slim. Sure, the ventilator will keep you alive for a few extra weeks, but the eventual outcome is the same.

So, we can mitigate the spread by locking down, but what happens when we eventually venture back into the world? The virus has become endemic, and no matter how long we stay locked down, it isn’t going to disappear. We can hope for medical therapies and a vaccine, but these things take a considerable amount of time. How many does of hydroxychloroquine do we have on hand and at what rate are we producing more? The lockdown is for nothing if the time spent locked down doesn’t give us a weapon to use against the virus. Sure, we flattened the curve, but it will just spike anew once the lockdown is lifted without some means of combatting the virus. Or, we’ll go into a never ending cycle of lockdowns.

Want to see a scary graph? Check this out (be sure to hit the play button): https://mobile.twitter.com/startupda...26958295875584

[gg]

Originally Posted by szug-bot

as of 4-4-2020, new cases reported each day for last 9 days:

45, 25, 61, 46, 25, 35, 31, 63, 57, 76

but, yeah, this is all a conspiracy by the media and whatnot.

This is great news. Every 14 days that group pops out the other end immune and can take care of business. We are doing great in this area. Can't believe how low those numbers are. Well done.

[szug-bot]

April 5...cases reported from last 10 days, starting with most distant to those from 4/5/2020 :


45, 25, 61, 46, 25, 35, 31, 63, 57, 76, 53