COVID 19 stats - ALLEGHENY COUNTY and beyond (Beaver, Monongahela: college, cabinets)

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by sealie

I thought the same and I was scratching my head as to how this was even news. But then I thought about it and figured, OK, Republican governor, purple-ish state, he's got people organizing protests, it's just smart politics to mention a plan and keep people aware that you have every intention of moving forward once the numbers support it.

ETA: I mention his politics because Trump and his advisors want to open up the government in May and are starting to really push for it. A Democrat is going to have an easier time with this; a Republican risks being primaried, although their next election isn't for a while.

I think it is going to depend on your state and where you live. You keep mentioning politics, but looking at cases they have about a third of the cases we do and are about 90% population size of PA. DeWine was quicker to move closed the whole state early and the local governments and business community listened. Wolf has done a good job, albeit not as fast, but he waited much longer to shut the state and did it by county instead of across the board. That was his one mistake. Wolf had already closed schools for the rest of the academic year. Eastern Pa is a hot spot. I don’t think we are going to have restrictions eased anytime soon.

I expect an uneven reopening of states. Ohio and Maryland may be open while PA is restricted. It’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

I am told by a higher education professional that many colleges and universities will not survive this event. A lot of higher ed layoffs are going to be permanent. He said Duquesne, Point Park, Robert Morris and La Roche could be some of the casualties locally, not even talking about state schools either

[gg]

I typically don't do NPR as they aren't a very rounded news source, but since this is filled with good information, I will let it slide.

Estimates all the way down to 60,000 and antibody tests on the way.

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/83066...y-tests-on-way

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

I am told by a higher education professional that many colleges and universities will not survive this event. A lot of higher ed layoffs are going to be permanent. He said Duquesne, Point Park, Robert Morris and La Roche could be some of the casualties locally, not even talking about state schools either

Your sources are wrong and as weird as it sounds the COVID-19 situation could increase revenue for several universities. Many universities are saving money by not having a commencement ceremony, decreased operating costs due to people working from home, and they are receiving significant emergency funding from the CARES Act to offset any losses due to temporary decreased enrollment or housing/meal plan refunds.

CARES Act Distributions to Selected Pittsburgh Area Universities
Point Park University $3,193,085
Duquesne University $5,373,970
La Roche College $1,205,918
Robert Morris University $3,326,878
Carnegie Mellon University $5,735,086
Chatham University $1,162,375
Carlow University $1,343,715
University of Pittsburgh $21,265,340
Slippery Rock University $7,354,069
California University of Pennsylvania $4,312,587
Waynesburg University $1,442,703

https://www.chronicle.com/article/Ho...timulus/248471

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

I am told by a higher education professional that many colleges and universities will not survive this event. A lot of higher ed layoffs are going to be permanent. He said Duquesne, Point Park, Robert Morris and La Roche could be some of the casualties locally, not even talking about state schools either

Sounds like a “higher education professional” that could use some more common sense to go along with his education, but I’d certainly like to see some numbers to prove what he’s assuming.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by trackstar13

Your sources are wrong and as weird as it sounds the COVID-19 situation could increase revenue for several universities. Many universities are saving money by not having a commencement ceremony, decreased operating costs due to people working from home, and they are receiving significant emergency funding from the CARES Act to offset any losses due to temporary decreased enrollment or housing/meal plan refunds.

CARES Act Distributions to Selected Pittsburgh Area Universities
Point Park University $3,193,085
Duquesne University $5,373,970
La Roche College $1,205,918
Robert Morris University $3,326,878
Carnegie Mellon University $5,735,086
Chatham University $1,162,375
Carlow University $1,343,715
University of Pittsburgh $21,265,340
Slippery Rock University $7,354,069
California University of Pennsylvania $4,312,587
Waynesburg University $1,442,703

https://www.chronicle.com/article/Ho...timulus/248471

A one time shot. Declining enrollment and shrinking endowments. See what happens in the spring and fall. It’s gonna be eye opening

Originally Posted by erieguy

Sounds like a “higher education professional” that could use some more common sense to go along with his education, but I’d certainly like to see some numbers to prove what he’s assuming.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...nd/2876589001/

[erieguy]

Many predictions are “eye opening” but never come to fruition. Let me know when what he says happens to “Duquesne, Point Park, LaRoche, and Robert Morris”.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by erieguy

Many predictions are “eye opening” but never come to fruition. Let me know when what he says happens to “Duquesne, Point Park, LaRoche, and Robert Morris”.

They ain’t gonna be around is what he said. Unable to sustain operation.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

They ain’t gonna be around is what he said. Unable to sustain operation.

Right. Let me know when that happens.

[WhoIsStanwix?]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

They ain’t gonna be around is what he said. Unable to sustain operation.

It’s very hard to envision a scenario like this, because it basically implies a total collapse of the current domestic economy with no recovery. The line of thinking you describe is permeating every sector of the economy right now, including healthcare. They are thinking about things under the existing model of operation, which is getting close to being out the window right now, at least temporarily.

People talk about insolvency, being unable to pay current debts, etc, however for that to happen, the banks or other creditors would need to force payment and require liquidation of assets when payment isn’t made. Make no mistake, higher education is in the same place as effectively the rest of the economy, though it could be somewhat more fragile due to the portion of it funded via consumer debt. If the entire economy goes insolvent, banks will completely fail, and the fed will do its best to not let that happen. At a lower level, banks cannot let all businesses fail because they need the businesses to feed their ongoing operations. So the likely outcome is banks get bailed out by the fed and other businesses get bailed out by the federal govt either directly or indirectly via banks. The alternatives to that are either insolvency of the fed because its creditors (China) force it into insolvency or the US citizens lose faith (since the whole economy is built on belief).

tl;dr Your friend is thinking in a silo, ignoring all other sectors of the economy, and operating as if the current way of operating is the only way.

[gg]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

They ain’t gonna be around is what he said. Unable to sustain operation.

50% of colleges should go away anyway. The model is obsolete. No reason for so many cash cows around that aren't taxed correctly. This could be a good byproduct.