COVID 19 stats - ALLEGHENY COUNTY and beyond (Pittsburgh: home, unemployment)

[Copanut]

Obviously, this area is practicing self-isolation.

[prnlvsxy]

Originally Posted by Copanut

Obviously, this area is practicing self-isolation.

Lack of testing plays a big part in any of these numbers.

[zip95]

Originally Posted by prnlvsxy

Lack of testing plays a big part in any of these numbers.

Not really, testing is expanding

http://https://covidtracking.com/data/state/pennsylvania/

[Knepper3]

Originally Posted by zip95

Not really, testing is expanding

http://https://covidtracking.com/data/state/pennsylvania/

Thanks, had not seen that site. I like the testing breakdown.

[szug-bot]

Source: Post - Gazette, March 30, 2020, 11:10AM

total cases of infection reported by Monday, 3/30, Allegheny County: 290

previous total cases: 265

new cases: 25


notes:

new cases reported each day for last 4 days, from Thursday to Monday: 45, 25, 61, 46, 25

[gg]

The US death rate on this so far is 1.8% which would be a much higher number than what it really is due to the huge number of people that will never be tested. I believe our county is well below 1% death rate and dropping. Please provide statistics that counter this post if not correct.

[Paul2421]

Originally Posted by gg

The US death rate on this so far is 1.8% which would be a much higher number than what it really is due to the huge number of people that will never be tested. I believe our county is well below 1% death rate and dropping. Please provide statistics that counter this post if not correct.

death rate can't be calculated until people actually beat the disease. plenty are still in critical condition. hopefully that is clear enough for your smooth brain.

[RedBall]

Originally Posted by gg

The US death rate on this so far is 1.8% which would be a much higher number than what it really is due to the huge number of people that will never be tested. I believe our county is well below 1% death rate and dropping. Please provide statistics that counter this post if not correct.

[Knepper3]

Originally Posted by Paul2421

death rate can't be calculated until people actually beat the disease. plenty are still in critical condition. hopefully that is clear enough for your smooth brain.

You can calculate a rate still, it just gets refined as more data comes in. There is never a final rate unless you can completely eradicate a disease which is not likely.

[Enough_Already]

Originally Posted by Paul2421

death rate can't be calculated until people actually beat the disease. plenty are still in critical condition. hopefully that is clear enough for your smooth brain.

In fact a final death rate can never be calculated because the number of people who get infected but are not diagnosed will never be known. That doesn't mean the death rate cannot be accurately estimated.


There has been information published indicating as many as 80% to 86% of people infected are not diagnosed. That means the denominator in the death rate calculation is five times higher. You are correct some of the current cases will end up being fatalities but the effect of that on the calculation will be small compared to the understatement of the denominator.


Using some published numbers and the 80% cases not diagnosed, I calculated a "real" death rate of about 0.7% with the rate being skewed toward older and people with other health issues. If the most vulnerable people are protected, the rate could be lower. Over time even without a "magic bullet" that rate should fall as more refined treatment protocols are developed.