Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Pennsylvania > Pittsburgh
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 04-23-2020, 01:00 PM
 
684 posts, read 419,066 times
Reputation: 728

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by erieguy View Post
Show me the answers.

How is 98.5% recovery rate the result of everyone staying home?

What percentage of essential workers are getting the virus?
I mean, if you took the time to actually read my reply you'd see how your 98.5% recovery rate is simple and flawed.

If you choose to ignore the science behind that, I have nothing more to say to you.

Once again, we live in different realities.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 04-23-2020, 01:04 PM
 
Location: Downtown Cranberry Twp.
41,018 posts, read 18,186,657 times
Reputation: 8528
Quote:
Originally Posted by prnlvsxy View Post
I mean, if you took the time to actually read my reply you'd see how your 98.5% recovery rate is simple and flawed.

If you choose to ignore the science behind that, I have nothing more to say to you.

Once again, we live in different realities.
“If’s”, “coulds”, “but’s””.
Show me the answers.

How is 98.5% recovery rate the result of everyone staying home?

What percentage of essential workers are getting the virus?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-23-2020, 01:06 PM
 
684 posts, read 419,066 times
Reputation: 728
Quote:
Originally Posted by erieguy View Post
“If’s”, “coulds”, “but’s””.
Show me the answers.

How is 98.5% recovery rate the result of everyone staying home?

What percentage of essential workers are getting the virus?
It's like talking to a toddler. I tried to explain the flaws behind your number, but you're either too stupid to grasp it or too ignorant to read it. (I'm guessing the latter, but not discounting the former).

Either way, there's not a lot more I can do. I can read it for you, but I can't understand it for you.

You're on your own on this one buddy.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-23-2020, 01:06 PM
 
Location: Downtown Cranberry Twp.
41,018 posts, read 18,186,657 times
Reputation: 8528
Quote:
Originally Posted by prnlvsxy View Post
It's like talking to a toddler. I tried to explain the flaws behind your number, but you're either too stupid to grasp it or too ignorant to read it. (I'm guessing the latter, but not discounting the former).

Either way, there's not a lot more I can do. I can read it for you, but I can't understand it for you.

You're on your own on this one buddy.
In the US:
Show me the answers.

How is 98.5% recovery rate the result of everyone staying home?

What percentage of essential workers are getting the virus?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-23-2020, 01:07 PM
 
684 posts, read 419,066 times
Reputation: 728
Quote:
Originally Posted by erieguy View Post
In the US:
Show me the answers.

How is 98.5% recovery rate the result of everyone staying home?

What percentage of essential workers are getting the virus?
The case fatality rate represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases. But while an epidemic is still ongoing, this formula is, at the very least, naive and can be misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients. Current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.

The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be:

CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.

One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak).

Let's take, for example, the data at the end of February 8, 2020: 813 deaths (cumulative total) and 37,552 cases (cumulative total) worldwide.

If we use the formula (deaths / cases) we get:

813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula).

With a conservative estimate of T = 7 days as the average period from case confirmation to death, we would correct the above formula by using February 1 cumulative cases, which were 14,381, in the denominator:

Feb. 8 deaths / Feb. 1 cases = 813 / 14,381 = 5.7% CFR (correct formula, and estimating T=7).

An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula:

CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

which, with the latest data available, would be equal to:

184,241 / (184,241 + 662,764) = 21.8% CFR (outside of mainland China)
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-23-2020, 01:10 PM
 
Location: Downtown Cranberry Twp.
41,018 posts, read 18,186,657 times
Reputation: 8528
“If’s”, “coulds”, “but’s””.
Show me the answers.

How is 98.5% recovery rate the result of everyone staying home?

What percentage of essential workers are getting the virus?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-23-2020, 01:12 PM
 
684 posts, read 419,066 times
Reputation: 728
Quote:
Originally Posted by erieguy View Post
“If’s”, “coulds”, “but’s””.
Show me the answers.

How is 98.5% recovery rate the result of everyone staying home?

What percentage of essential workers are getting the virus?
Serious question; are you really incapable of reading, or are you just trolling?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-23-2020, 01:15 PM
 
Location: Downtown Cranberry Twp.
41,018 posts, read 18,186,657 times
Reputation: 8528
Quote:
Originally Posted by prnlvsxy View Post
Serious question; are you really incapable of reading, or are you just trolling?
I’m seriously asking you these questions without if’s, but’s, and coulds and you haven’t even attempted to answer about essential workers who are all about on the front lines.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-23-2020, 01:20 PM
 
684 posts, read 419,066 times
Reputation: 728
Quote:
Originally Posted by erieguy View Post
I’m seriously asking you these questions without if’s, but’s, and coulds and you haven’t even attempted to answer about essential workers who are all about on the front lines.
The entire basis of your question is built on simple naive flawed logic, utilizing incorrect numbers. I've showed you how and why that's the case, but you stick your fingers in your ears, close your eyes and repeat the same thing over and over again like a child. I honestly think you may have a mental issue. Either way, I've done all that I can, but you make it literally impossible to have a real conversation.

Enjoy the last word, but you're going on my ignore list.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-23-2020, 01:23 PM
 
Location: Downtown Cranberry Twp.
41,018 posts, read 18,186,657 times
Reputation: 8528
Quote:
Originally Posted by prnlvsxy View Post
The entire basis of your question is built on simple naive flawed logic, utilizing incorrect numbers. I've showed you how and why that's the case, but you stick your fingers in your ears, close your eyes and repeat the same thing over and over again like a child. I honestly think you may have a mental issue. Either way, I've done all that I can, but you make it literally impossible to have a real conversation.

Enjoy the last word, but you're going on my ignore list.
I simply asked straight up questions and you’ve not even tried to answer the second one of them.

Sorry you feel that way, I was interested in answers.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Settings
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2020 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Pennsylvania > Pittsburgh
Similar Threads

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:49 PM.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top