Prediction: City of Pittsburgh to lose much more population in the next 5 years. (Washington: middle-class, public school)

[TheProf]

Originally Posted by tyovan4

Well, medical professionals are exempt from the new immigration restrictions. So they'll still continue coming here for UPMC.
By putting a slight damper on the tech industry, perhaps this will help slow down the intense gentrification that occurred in this city over the last several years.
Its hilariously ironic and hypocritical to me that our local liberal leadership is more interested in importing highly-paid foreigners to displace local residents than they are in helping to keep the existing locals here.

Very Trumpian of you.

[rickms]

A search for Texas A&M population data should take you to it,

Yes, found it. thanks. Actually like that the site is streamlined. The outer counties are really struggling, but even counties that have done well (well for the region anyway) in gaining residents from other places still have more deaths than births. This includes Butler county which has had consistent growth for decades.



I wonder if the new Beaver county plant will impact his decade's trajectory? I doubt it will be enough, but I don't know how many will be employed there and it won't matter a lot if other, separate growth doesn't start.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by rickms

It depends if the subject is about a city specifically or the metro. City population can be meaningless.


Yes, Oklahoma City is bigger than Miami - actually so is Jacksonville, but the metros are maybe a third of the size.


It does matter that older cities are shrinking. Pittsburgh's city (and metro) population has been declining for many decades.


It simply hasn't generated enough to jobs to attract people like long ago. For the smaller industrial (or former industrial) towns along the rivers - the Mon valley and Beaver County etc., there is no easy solution. Either Pittsburgh has to generate enough jobs for commuters to live in these places or these smaller places have to find new jobs and how likely is that?


The issue with higher deaths than births is an added layer that hurts Pittsburgh. I haven't seen the numbers in a long time, but all of this feeds on itself. People die and the needs for services go with it. Less tax revenue etc etc. But Pittsburgh isn't attracting huge inbound replacements and has less births than deaths. I don't see a magic bullet that will spur jobs in a way to help all of these communities.


I would be curious to see the changes to the deaths and births - if it has changed at all.

Here is a company founded in Pittsburgh and HQ in San Francisco. CMUs finest. Up and left for a more expensive city. I thought being cheap gave Pittsburgh an edge.

https://www.post-gazette.com/busines...s/202006290098

The region is not attracting enough new people or young families. So of course there are going to be more deaths than births.

Pittsburgh public schools had 40K students in 1997. Today it has 22,000. There are a lot of suburban schools in desirable areas down in population as well. Keystone Oaks was a much larger district in the late 90s than today. Montour used to have 3 elementary schools and enrollment has declined so much that it all fits into one. It’s declines across the board due to lack of economic opportunities not enticing young people to stay here and have families. I think if you looked at the whole Pittsburgh metro the school aged children is probably down 50-60k since 2000.

Now you have a small inner city that is a majority renter population that will pick up and leave for greener pastures. The housing stock here is very old and needing repair. Very little new housing into the region.

The only reason Pittsburgh had positive growth in decades at the beginning of the early 2010s was due to the gas industry. And low and behold many people here want it to fail even though it is the only thing drawing people to the area for work. And it slowed down and Pittsburgh’s decline started once again.

[PenguinsFan14]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

Here is a company founded in Pittsburgh and HQ in San Francisco. CMUs finest. Up and left for a more expensive city. I thought being cheap gave Pittsburgh an edge.

https://www.post-gazette.com/busines...s/202006290098

The region is not attracting enough new people or young families. So of course there are going to be more deaths than births.

Pittsburgh public schools had 40K students in 1997. Today it has 22,000. There are a lot of suburban schools in desirable areas down in population as well. Keystone Oaks was a much larger district in the late 90s than today. Montour used to have 3 elementary schools and enrollment has declined so much that it all fits into one. It’s declines across the board due to lack of economic opportunities not enticing young people to stay here and have families. I think if you looked at the whole Pittsburgh metro the school aged children is probably down 50-60k since 2000.

Now you have a small inner city that is a majority renter population that will pick up and leave for greener pastures. The housing stock here is very old and needing repair. Very little new housing into the region.

The only reason Pittsburgh had positive growth in decades at the beginning of the early 2010s was due to the gas industry. And low and behold many people here want it to fail even though it is the only thing drawing people to the area for work. And it slowed down and Pittsburgh’s decline started once again.

While being cheap does help some, it is offset by PA's insanely high corporate tax rate. The personal tax rate is average, but can't compare with states that have little or no sales, personal, or corporate taxes. Look at the taxes for Florida, Texas, etc. Far cheaper than PA and cost of living is higher than here, but not insane.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by PenguinsFan14

While being cheap does help some, it is offset by PA's insanely high corporate tax rate. The personal tax rate is average, but can't compare with states that have little or no sales, personal, or corporate taxes. Look at the taxes for Florida, Texas, etc. Far cheaper than PA and cost of living is higher than here, but not insane.

Kansas attempted to cut corporate taxes down to almost nothing in order to attract more employers. It blew up the state budget and didn't actually cause any job growth.

[Joe_P]

The region is not attracting enough new people or young families. So of course there are going to be more deaths than births.

Yes, that has been discussed ad nauseum. The exodus of the 80s is what created the demographic oddity. Given the structural dependence on dying big industry, of course it's terrible. Job growth isn't anywhere what it should be to lift up the region as whole. We know that. It's baked in.

You can keep repeating what everyone knows, but at some point, it just makes it clear what your intentions are and oh yes, you call everyone who calls this out, "cheer leaders" etc, even though most of us note the negative issues and how they impact the region.

Kansas attempted to cut corporate taxes down to almost nothing in order to attract more employers. It blew up the state budget and didn't actually cause any job growth.

Exactly. Kansas was the conservative experiment in its pure form and it failed miserably. Mississippi is a great example too.

[bluecarebear]

Drops to 250000 in 2 years

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by bluecarebear

Drops to 250000 in 2 years

You think? I guess it’s possible. If this virus sticks around it’s gonna do a number on the Pittsburgh economy. The cases are surging and there is a panic. Going back to red will put people back on unemployment rolls.

This virus shows why it is better to chose living in a less populated and more exurban county. This virus is going to kill desirability for urban counties and city living

[Joe_P]

The virus is hurting all cities. Yes, of course Pittsburgh will suffer and its economy is hardly robust to begin with.

There is not going to be a big exodus to exurbs. Some might want to live further out, but likely were already inclined to it to begin with.

[szug-bot]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

This virus shows why it is better to chose living in a less populated and more exurban county. This virus is going to kill desirability for urban counties and city living

a little off-topic, but i do desire 'less populated and more exurban'...but that is because i am getting older.

i will always love city life, even though Pittsburgh seems full of a-holes. walking somewhere, the not infrequent quick exchange of words with a nice dog owner, or an otherwise rare friendly person...
or biking rather extraordinary topography - its like a tour of Switzerland or San Francisco at times...

the car does not move for days. its great!