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Old 05-08-2008, 08:21 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
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Whats up with the birth rate in PA and Pittsburgh? In most areas the birth rate is around double the death rate, but it PA and Pittsburgh they are pretty close to the same. The population of PA has also grown very little over the last 30 years.
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Old 05-08-2008, 08:26 AM
 
Location: Saint Petersburg
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Originally Posted by Humanoid View Post
Whats up with the birth rate in PA and Pittsburgh? In most areas the birth rate is around double the death rate, but it PA and Pittsburgh they are pretty close to the same. The population of PA has also grown very little over the last 30 years.
Actually, I think I might know the answer to this one.

I read an analysis once that said that when the steel industry collapsed, the working class moved out of Pittsburgh for greener shores economically. These people were the ones who comprised the parent - age demographic at the time. They took their small children with them when they went, and the rate of new births dropped immediately also. Fast forward twenty years - all those small children who left then would now be beginning families of their own, but they aren't in Pittsburgh anymore. At the same time, all the older adults who stayed around way back when are now very elderly (i.e., dying).

So essentially you have a big generation gap here, where the cohort that would be creating births is very small compared to the cohort that is dying. In fact, it's even a little surprising that the death rate isn't higher than the birth rate in Pittsburgh right now.
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Old 05-08-2008, 09:26 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Humanoid View Post
Interesting, anybody know what was going on in the early 1990's when the population went up a bit?
Basically, the economy stabilized after the steel industry collapsed in the early 1980s, and young people stopped moving away--indeed, among young people specifically the region started gaining population. The linked statistics don't report net migration in the 1980s (and don't break down anything by age), but you can figure out the net migration number in the 1980s by looking at birth/deaths and total population change. Once you do that, it becomes clear that migration went from a large net negative in the late 1980s to around neutral in the early 1990s. But in a moment I will answer another question to explain why that growth didn't continue.

Last edited by BrianTH; 05-08-2008 at 09:41 AM..
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Old 05-08-2008, 09:30 AM
 
20,273 posts, read 32,866,736 times
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Originally Posted by subdivisions View Post
Actually, I think I might know the answer to this one.

I read an analysis once that said that when the steel industry collapsed, the working class moved out of Pittsburgh for greener shores economically. These people were the ones who comprised the parent - age demographic at the time. They took their small children with them when they went, and the rate of new births dropped immediately also. Fast forward twenty years - all those small children who left then would now be beginning families of their own, but they aren't in Pittsburgh anymore. At the same time, all the older adults who stayed around way back when are now very elderly (i.e., dying).

So essentially you have a big generation gap here, where the cohort that would be creating births is very small compared to the cohort that is dying. In fact, it's even a little surprising that the death rate isn't higher than the birth rate in Pittsburgh right now.
That is basically right: the loss of population following the collapse of the steel industry was not evenly distributed by age, but rather concentrated among young adults. That has led to an ongoing ripple effect in the overall population statistics, and that is why the population gains of the early 1990s didn't hold up: the fact that a large number of people who would ordinarily be having children were "missing" meant that the population statistics started swinging back to a net negative. Indeed, you can see that quite clearly in the statistics: deaths overtake births in 1996, which is basically around when the last of the older population that remained stopped having children. Notably, however, without an ongoing contribution of mass outmigration by young people, the net population loss moderated considerably. However, the older people have also started moving away (e.g., to retirement areas in the "Sun Belt"), which is why the out-migration numbers went back up.

In fact, generally it is important to note that while this effect will still be going on for a while, it is necessarily a temporary effect: as time goes on, more and more of the older people who stayed in the 1980s will pass or move away. As Katiana has pointed out, however, the 1980s is relatively recent, so the last of these people likely will not be gone for decades yet. Still, as their relative numbers decline, they will gradually diminish in statistical importance.

The other notable fact about birth rates in the area is that Pittsburgh does not get a lot of international immigration. Across the country, the birth rate among native born people tends to be below the replacement rate, meaning there are fewer births than deaths. But the U.S. manages to get up to around the replacement rate thanks to immigrants, who on average have a significantly higher birth rate than native born people.

Last edited by BrianTH; 05-08-2008 at 09:44 AM..
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Old 05-08-2008, 11:09 AM
 
357 posts, read 885,236 times
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Originally Posted by BrianTH View Post
IIndeed, I think things like UPMC locating its corporate headquarters Downtown are instructive: UPMC will still provide its medical services and conduct research in the East End, but it will now run its business Downtown.
If you believe the press releases, the only reason UPMC went Downtown was because they didn't have enough space in Oakland and wanted more clinical space in Oakland. In other words, they appear to have had a preference for Oakland but were willing to settle for Downtown as a second choice.
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Old 05-08-2008, 12:18 PM
 
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Originally Posted by scrapp View Post
If you believe the press releases, the only reason UPMC went Downtown was because they didn't have enough space in Oakland and wanted more clinical space in Oakland. In other words, they appear to have had a preference for Oakland but were willing to settle for Downtown as a second choice.
I'm sure they did, but the reason UPMC could find more space Downtown is basically economies of scale, which make the marginal cost of additional office space in an existing business services center relatively low. So their story is really just confirmation of the continuing economic viability of Downtown as a business services center.
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Old 05-09-2008, 08:20 AM
 
357 posts, read 885,236 times
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Originally Posted by BrianTH View Post
I'm sure they did, but the reason UPMC could find more space Downtown is basically economies of scale, which make the marginal cost of additional office space in an existing business services center relatively low. So their story is really just confirmation of the continuing economic viability of Downtown as a business services center.
In other words, the commercial vacancy rate Downtown was large enough that they could find the big block of space they needed at a price they liked.

I don't think the economic viability of Downtown as a business center is in doubt (after all, the City and County governments are down there and that attracts all kinds of business).
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Old 05-09-2008, 08:44 AM
 
20,273 posts, read 32,866,736 times
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Originally Posted by scrapp View Post
In other words, the commercial vacancy rate Downtown was large enough that they could find the big block of space they needed at a price they liked.
I actually think what happened in this case is that Heinz moved its HQ to PPG Place, and then UPMC took over the former Heinz space in the USX Tower (which I guess I should be calling the U.S. Steel Tower). But in any event, it is true that one of the byproducts of the economies of scale I mentioned is the likelihood of space already being available when you look (basically because with the low marginal cost of adding more office space, developers won't go bankrupt just because there are some vacancies).

Quote:
I don't think the economic viability of Downtown as a business center is in doubt (after all, the City and County governments are down there and that attracts all kinds of business).
Indeed, but this is a self-reinforcing effect: you get the law firms, and banks, and accounting firms, and then businesses wanting to be near the law firms, banks, and accounting firms, and then hotels and convention centers, and businesses wanting to be near the hotels and conventione centers, and so on.

Anyway, my point was just that regardless of what businesses are in the area, Downtown is likely to remain a popular place to locate corporate HQs. That is why I suggested Downtown really has no particular association with the old or new economies--eventually it will just tend to reflect whatever industries are participating in the regional economy.
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Old 05-09-2008, 10:48 AM
 
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Blah blah blah....Pittsburgh's on the upswing....blah blah blah...

I can't find a job here that doesn't involve running a cash register, so I'm getting the hell out.

Maybe they can use all that office space in downtown as nursing homes for everyone growing old in Western Pennsylvania.
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Old 05-09-2008, 04:48 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
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I can't find a job here that doesn't involve running a cash register, so I'm getting the hell out.
C'mon now you have to be fair! There are a lot of customer service jobs too! You could be that special lady that the locals call when they dial PNC!


Anyhow, on a side note. Pittsburgh has way too much office space. It seems the city wants nothing to do with manufacturing again so builds no warehouses/industrial spaces because that is the "old economy". So any business that actually makes something (very odd idea huh?) can't move to the region. So, the area is going to be filled with low paying service jobs.
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