Pittsburgh MSA gains 86,000+ people overnight! (Allentown, Bethlehem: homes, living, costs)

[anthony_c55]

I would rather that Lawrence county not be included. That just one more county losing population that will have to be overcome to show a metro increase.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by runpens1

Yeah I feel that it is stretching it as Armstrong and Fayette maybe were a little too. when I think of the metro Pittsburgh boundaries which we have defined on here before, Lawrence County doesn't really come to mind. They go as follows:

North: Cranberry Township, Seven Fields, Mars, Valencia. Maybe Zelienople would be the closest to Ellwood City and Lawrence County, but Cranberry has almost become like its own sub metro within the region.

Northeast: Freeport (Armstrong County), Sarver, Buffalo Township

East: Murrysville, Export, Delmont, Penn Township

Southeast: Irwin, North Huntingdon, Rostraver (borders Fayette County)

South: Peters Township, Mcmurray, Venetia, Finleyville

Southwest: Canonsburg, Cecil Township, maybe northern edge of Washington area

West: Mcdonald, Midway, Imperial, Clinton

Northwest: Monaca, Center Township, Beaver, Rochester, etc.

You basically just described the Pittsburgh Urbanized Area.

Originally Posted by anthony_c55

I would rather that Lawrence county not be included. That just one more county losing population that will have to be overcome to show a metro increase.

I'd rather it be included because it's another indicator of growing economic gravity in Pittsburgh.

[SteelCityRising]

Wow. I mean I am surprised how many daily buses there are from New Castle Area Transit to Downtown Pittsburgh, so I guess it might make sense that more and more people in New Castle need to commute to Allegheny County for work as New Castle continues to implode socioeconomically.

Mercer County being added to our CSA is a total head-scratcher. I mean it is less than 50 miles from Downtown Erie to the northern reaches of Mercer County, and it is only about 30 miles from the southern reaches of Erie County to the northern reaches of Mercer County!

Pittsburgh really is expanding its sphere of influence. I wonder if the 2030's will also bring Venango County into our CSA? I feel like Greene County might finally be in Morgantown's CSA in the 2030's. I mean other than Waynesburg University, the prison, and Walmart where else is there to work in Greene County? Surely many of those folks must commute to work in Monongalia County, no?

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Wow. I mean I am surprised how many daily buses there are from New Castle Area Transit to Downtown Pittsburgh, so I guess it might make sense that more and more people in New Castle need to commute to Allegheny County for work as New Castle continues to implode socioeconomically.

They don't even have to work in downtown Pittsburgh. They can also work in Beaver County, Butler County, or near Pittsburgh International Airport.


New Castle is

29 miles from Monaca
30 miles from Beaver
33 miles from Cranberry
40 miles from Pine Township
43 miles from Pittsburgh International Airport
52 miles from Robinson
53 miles from downtown Pittsburgh
61 miles from Cecil


Ellwood City is

14 miles from Beaver
15 miles from Monaca
22 miles from Cranberry
26 miles from Pine Township
30 miles from Pittsburgh International Airport
41 miles from downtown Pittsburgh
42 miles from Robinson
52 miles from Cecil


A half-hour commute from New Castle or Ellwood City to several of those employment centers is doable, since it'd be primarily on rural Interstates with higher speed limits.

Also bear in mind that the commuting threshold is 25% for MSA inclusion, and 15% for CSA inclusion, so it's not like everybody in Lawrence County or Mercer County has to work in the Pittsburgh MSA.

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Mercer County being added to our CSA is a total head-scratcher.

Not when you consider the extension of I-376 in 2009. A new, extended Interstate corridor had to have spurred economic development to some degree.

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

I wonder if the 2030's will also bring Venango County into our CSA?

No need to exaggerate.


Franklin is

66 miles from Cranberry
72 miles from Beaver
72 miles from Monaca
72 miles from Pine Township
85 miles from downtown Pittsburgh
86 miles from Robinson
96 miles from Pittsburgh International Airport
98 miles from Cecil


Oil City is

74 miles from Cranberry
80 miles from Beaver
81 miles from Monaca
81 miles from Pine Township
94 miles from downtown Pittsburgh
98 miles from Robinson
104 miles from Pittsburgh International Airport
107 miles from Cecil


For that matter, Franklin, which is the closer of the two cities in Venango County, is still 43 miles from Butler and 46 miles from New Castle, and neither of those cities are major employment centers. Venango County will have to settle for being in the Pittsburgh TV market. Even Pittsburgh radio stations are out of range.

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

I feel like Greene County might finally be in Morgantown's CSA in the 2030's. I mean other than Waynesburg University, the prison, and Walmart where else is there to work in Greene County? Surely many of those folks must commute to work in Monongalia County, no?

Doubtful. Compared to Pennsylvania, a dollar goes farther in West Virginia, but jobs pay less, so it makes no sense to live in Pennsylvania but work in West Virginia. This is why Fayette County is part of the Pittsburgh MSA in spite of its direct highway access to Morgantown.

It makes much more sense to live in West Virginia but work in Pennsylvania, which is exactly why the Weirton/Steubenville MSA is part of the Pittsburgh CSA.

[SteelCityRising]

Thanks, Craziaskowboi, for your insights. I always look forward to the observations from both you and eschaton when it comes to demography.

I suppose I just feel as if CSA's in general are becoming extraordinarily bloated in terms of geographical size. I feel like Cleveland's CSA is now roughly 1/3 of the state of Ohio, and it's hard for me to fathom that pretty much the entire state of Connecticut is now its own CSA.

[anthony_c55]

Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi

I'd rather it be included because it's another indicator of growing economic gravity in Pittsburgh.

Not really, it just means that Lawrence county is so economically depressed that more people than before are commuting to Pgh for jobs. I would love it if the county grew, even if because of commuters, but especially if it had development happening within it, but that doesn't seem to be happening. Instead we have a shrinking county joining, so great - we get +60K people added now and then next year it will simply decrease.

[svband76]

The only New Castle connection to Pittsburgh is former Bucco manager Chuck Tanner. Need I remind you that this year marks Year 44 since we were bopping to Sister Sledge..

[drive carephilly]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Years back, I researched why the hell Armstrong County was in the MSA, considering that other than a tiny bit around Freeport, there's really no connection to Pittsburgh.

A county can make an argument for inclusion in an MSA, and that could result in more/better transportation funding through the MPO - https://www.spcregion.org/

But the argument has to be supported by the data and that data needs to show real economic cross-pollination with the rest of the MSA. It doesn't have to be a connection to Pittsburgh itself, you really just need a strong enough connection to the suburban counties.

It's the same reason that Pike County is part of the NYC MSA. There are maybe 12 people who commute to Manhattan from Milford, PA but there are thousands who commute from Pike County to jobs in suburban New Jersey.

Lawrence County has 55% of its workforce working in Lawrence County. You have 9.5% going to Mercer but then you have 18.4% working in the Pittsburgh MSA with the bulk of those in Butler and Beaver.

And it's not just people commuting, B2B is a big piece of the economic pie.

https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by drive carephilly

A county can make an argument for inclusion in an MSA, and that could result in more/better transportation funding through the MPO - https://www.spcregion.org/

But the argument has to be supported by the data and that data needs to show real economic cross-pollination with the rest of the MSA. It doesn't have to be a connection to Pittsburgh itself, you really just need a strong enough connection to the suburban counties.

It's the same reason that Pike County is part of the NYC MSA. There are maybe 12 people who commute to Manhattan from Milford, PA but there are thousands who commute from Pike County to jobs in suburban New Jersey.

Lawrence County has 55% of its workforce working in Lawrence County. You have 9.5% going to Mercer but then you have 18.4% working in the Pittsburgh MSA with the bulk of those in Butler and Beaver.

And it's not just people commuting, B2B is a big piece of the economic pie.

https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

Pike County is no longer in the NYC CSA. It was just removed with this latest update. Monroe County was also added to the Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton MSA to create a new CSA of over 1,000,000 people.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by anthony_c55

Not really, it just means that Lawrence county is so economically depressed that more people than before are commuting to Pgh for jobs.

But why not Youngstown? Youngstown is only 19 miles away from New Castle.