Interesting G-20 Interview with Mayor Ravenstahl (Pittsburgh, York: house, movies, universities)

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by JoeLeaphorn

I'll make it easy for you, BrianTH. Show me the long term economic impacts of Netroots Nation and/or the G-20.

Well it is a little early for that, and of course it isn't that simple. As I noted, marketing alone won't achieve anything, but it can help. So any effects will necessarily be entangled with other causes.

As for Pittsburgh, it WAS a larger city when I first moved here. It isn't, now, because it has not made the right choices.

It is way too late to undo Pittsburgh's overreliance on a handful of employers that contracted dramatically. So while Pittsburgh can move forward, it can't move back.

Glad you know more about Davos. When do you actually plan to spend dollars in their local economy?

I'm not much of a skier. But for all I know, skiing at Davos did get a boost. In any event, Davos is a completely different sort of place from Pittsburgh.

As for downtown, I guess you don't work there. I have colleagues in the legal and financial professions who are telling me that the disruptions are going to be significant. State and Federal Courts are to be closed, and financial businesses are relocating key personnel offsite.

I didn't say it wouldn't be disruptive for Downtown for those days. My wife, who works Downtown, will be working from home. Our son, who goes to daycare Downtown, will be using an alternate facility in Monroeville. I suspect other people will manage as well.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by JoeLeaphorn

For example, I didn't notice a flurry of people who have proclaimed their desire to move here.

I actually saw several comments expressing a desire to return someday, but again the key consideration is not them, it is the people that read them.

Show me LONG TERM growth in the economy which has or will occur because of the effects of Netroots Nation or the G-20. Until then, it is a pipe dream. Real businesses talk about return on investment. Show me!

You keep saying this, but Netroots just happened and the G-20 hasn't even happened yet. Moreover, you will never disentangle the effects.

We have seen replacement of middle class manufacturing jobs with a combination of lower middle to lower class service jobs and upper middle to upper class health care.

That is an inaccurate characterization of what has happened in the local economy, as I demonstrated before.

Meanwhile, our property tax system is way out of whack (and fixing it is likely not to be pretty)

No argument here.

and technology is not taking root, here, in the way that we had expected.

Actually, I was just looking at real GDP statistics, and I was surprised at how much growth we have had in the information/communications/technology supersector.

Health care reform, if it is done right, will likely cause a greater shrinkage of the health care economy

If we are very lucky, it will slow the growth rate in health care expenses. Actual shrinkage isn't on the table in any conceivable world.

Furthermore, putting all of one's eggs in a single basket is not a good strategy for economic survival whether it is health care or steel.

I agree, so it is good thing that the truth is that we have been growing the local economy in a lot of areas besides just health care.

Sorry, but I think that your numbers are an economic pacifier, just like the national economic numbers.

Well, if your idea is I should just trust your personal impressions over the available objective data, that isn't going to happen.

[BrianTH]

As for population, while the City and Metro were down as of 2000, the urbanized area was actually up in 2000. I have no doubt that some of the small towns and rural areas in the Metro are going to struggle. I think it is quite likely, however, that the urbanized area will continue to grow, and that the City will start slowly growing too (in fact, I suspect that has already happened).

[JoeLeaphorn]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

You keep saying this, but Netroots just happened and the G-20 hasn't even happened yet. Moreover, you will never disentangle the effects.

Yes, well, marketers seem to be able to do this in the real (business) world. So why can't we do it, here?

Originally Posted by BrianTH

That is an inaccurate characterization of what has happened in the local economy, as I demonstrated before.

To your satisfaction, not to mine. I prefer Richard Florida's take on the situation in Pittsburgh.

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Actually, I was just looking at real GDP statistics, and I was surprised at how much growth we have had in the information/communications/technology supersector.

Compared to what? Growth is fine but the question is how we are growing, or not, compared to similar demographics.

Originally Posted by BrianTH

If we are very lucky, it will slow the growth rate in health care expenses. Actual shrinkage isn't on the table in any conceivable world.

I disagree, as someone who practices medicine. Our goal is to keep people out of the system. Treatment is a failure of prevention. Health care is overutilized in the US in contrast with other industrialized nations and in Pittsburgh, utilization is much greater than comparable cities. Most of what is done at UPMC and WPAHS has been exported to other facilities and if you've read the papers you've read about the living donor issues related to UPMC and liver transplants you would get some idea of how ambition rather than evidence-based medicine drives local decisions.

That will change.

Pittsburgh cannot sustain the overutilization of health care, here, and while research and technology transfer will make some gains, the delivery of health care, locally, is destined to shrink and, IMHO, that is a good thing.

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Well, if your idea is I should just trust your personal impressions over the available objective data, that isn't going to happen.

I don't care what you believe. Delusions are not uncommon. But my point remains, that G-20s and Netroots Nation's summits have no proven long term economic benefits and, IMHO, a lot of short term economic disadvantages.

When you can PROVE me wrong, feel free to do so.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by JoeLeaphorn

Yes, well, marketers seem to be able to do this in the real (business) world.

Really? Measuring the effects of a marketing campaign is often very difficult. In any event, you are still asking for indications about the long term effects of a thing that hasn't even happened yet.

I prefer Richard Florida's take on the situation in Pittsburgh.

You mean this?

One of the things, just so you know, that I've been tracking very well is that despite continued political problems in Pittsburgh, I think Pittsburgh's rebirth is one of the great success stories of North America.

Or this?

And I think what the [Detroit] region really has to realize is that the future after auto can be better. I saw that happen in Pittsburgh. I saw the city move away from steel - although steel plays a role - become more innovative and entrepreneurial and actually, the quality of life in Pittsburgh improved a lot. The city shrunk, but the quality of life improved a lot.

Maybe this?

Pittsburgh's economic transformation - feted by Newsweek's Howard Fineman among others as a model for Detroit and other places - is a case study of how to shrink smart and strategically.

And so on. Florida is actually a huge Pittsburgh booster these days.

Health care is overutilized in the US in contrast with other industrialized nations.

True, but the reforms on the table aren't going to do much to change that fact, and again at most they will slow the growth rate, not actually shrink the sector.

I don't care what you believe. Delusions are not uncommon.

No they are not. But my "delusions" are backed by objective data. What have you supported your "delusions" with?

When you can PROVE me wrong, feel free to do so.

I'm not playing that game, Joe. You are responsible for proving what you say is true. I'm not responsible for proving you wrong whenever you decide to say something.

[Yac]

I'd like to step in before the actual fighting begins and ask you both to calm down.
Yac.

[JoeLeaphorn]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

I'm not playing that game, Joe. You are responsible for proving what you say is true. I'm not responsible for proving you wrong whenever you decide to say something.

Ok, Brian:

City and county authorities have estimated security to cost $20 million.

Classes will be cancelled, occupants of residence halls temporarily evicted (students will need to pay for accommodations, elsewhere) and workers displaced.

Transportation will be severely curtailed, in fact, because no one knows exactly how much, businesses are already telling employees not to plan to come to work.

The businesses that depend on those employees and students are cutting back on hours or closing altogether, resulting in lost revenue.

Hourly workers will go without pay for the hours missed.

None of this is disputed; all of it has been reported in the media.

Those are facts.

Then there is the assertion that Pittsburgh will "benefit" from hosting the G-20 and Netroots Nation. Ok, "benefit" how? People will think better of Pittsburgh? Fine, but will this cause them to make the kind of investment which contributes to long term economic growth.

All I am saying is prove it. Otherwise, it is simply an opinion with no basis in fact. What isn't an opinion is that a lot of people who are contributing to the local economy are going to be disrupted and, for some, this is going to come at a cost.

Oh, and Richard Florida no longer lives in Pittsburgh. Wonder why?

[WILWRadio]

Originally Posted by JoeLeaphorn

Huh?

Amtrak is suspending service to Pittsburgh for the summit. The Port Authority is trimming bus and T services. Roads will be closed and certain kinds of traffic will be banned. The Allegheny River will be closed to boat traffic and the shores will not permit docking. Businesses are going to "essential personnel only" mode. Downtown schools and colleges have canceled classes as have other universities.

So this is how you show a city in "recovery", by evacuating it?

Pittsburgh was chosen because the summit organizers knew that they couldn't get away with these kinds of restrictions in New York City. Imagine trying to tell New Yorkers that they couldn't take a train or subway into our out of the city for a couple of days.

The real irony is that many people here think that this great for Pittsburgh?

How?

Pittsburgh gets better coverage from the Goodyear Blimp during a football game. At least, then, you get to see a city alive and teeming with activity.

It sounds like they are declaring Martial Law. Hardly a positive experience for the Pittsburgh area. And it definitely will not help the businesses located in the areas that are shut down.

[JoeLeaphorn]

Originally Posted by WILWRadio

It sounds like they are declaring Martial Law. Hardly a positive experience for the Pittsburgh area. And it definitely will not help the businesses located in the areas that are shut down.

Actually, Hollywood could get a lot of good footage from this event. They are closing Point State Park which is going to become the staging area for security as well as for helicopter landing.

Traffic on Liberty and Penn Avenues and Ft. Duquesne Blvd will be curtailed or limited as they'll need motorcade alternate routes in case of problems.

For private pilots, there'll be temporary restricted airspaces over key routes and facilities.

There'll be SWAT teams and police snipers located on the tops of buildings around town as well as vigilent police patrols of the Allegheny River shores and, likely, Mt. Washington.

I wouldn't want to be anywhere near the city on those days.

Chicago is about as close as I'd like to be.

[WILWRadio]

^^^Definitely the trademarks of a free society.