Pittsburgh metro area posts POSITIVE domestic migration in 2009

[dugdogmaster]

Woot!

[bradjl2009]

More good news I saw from the census bureau!! Allegheny County's population went from 1,218,227 to 1,218,494; so the county gained over 200 people which isn't much but the first gain in a long time!

[Craziaskowboi]

Eh, problem is, one year of positive growth won't compensate for nine years of negative growth.

But that's what the 2020 Census is for.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by Gnutella

Eh, problem is, one year of positive growth won't compensate for nine years of negative growth.

But that's what the 2020 Census is for.

Yea but that's not what excites me. What excites me is that after decades of lowering population the area is turning a corner finally! The question I have though if it is also that people are not moving and staying put and they may be planning to move out though once the recession is over.

[bradjl2009]

Plus I also doubt the lost of about 30 to 40k people from 2003 to 2007 (I feel that may be exaggerated a little bit )

[Katarina Witt]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

Plus I also doubt the lost of about 30 to 40k people from 2003 to 2007 (I feel that may be exaggerated a little bit )

It's actually 43,872

Pittsburgh, PA MSA Population and Components of Change

[BrianTH]

As an aside, I think the Census estimates for population losses in the City of Pittsburgh in the mid-2000s are likely to prove on the high side, based on things like the data from the American Community Survey and understanding the estimate methodology for subcounty places.

But anyway--historically people in the United States have always moved during recessions to the places with relatively low unemployment, so this is no surprise. In fact there were preliminary indications of this in the employment data: our labor force (people working or actively looking for work) has spiked up, which in circumstances like this strongly implies job-seekers have migrated to the region.

Now on the one hand that effect is probably going to end at some point. But on the other hand, it may be a while--unemployment nationally likely won't return to normal levels for years, and it is possible Pittsburgh will stay ahead of the curve that whole time. Moreover, migration has been kept modest this time due to all the disruptions in the housing market, which make it harder for people to move. Slowly but surely, however, people are working out of that situation (every foreclosure, short sale, and so on is another household freed up to move if they want), and we may see some pent-up migration come through in the next couple years.

Anyway, should be interesting. The bottomline is we will need to be aggressive about making sure people are finding work in the local economy, such that this growth is economically beneficial and doesn't just add to the local unemployed population. I think we will do OK, but to the extent there are projects that can be accelerated, we should really do that so we provide as many near-term employment opportunities as possible.

[Craziaskowboi]

Pittsburgh MSA population breakdown by county

Allegheny County

2008 population: 1,218,227
2009 population: 1,218,494
Change year/year: +267

Armstrong County

2008 population: 68,449
2009 population: 67,851
Change year/year: -598

Beaver County

2008 population: 172,396
2009 population: 171,673
Change year/year: -723

Butler County

2008 population: 183,663
2009 population: 184,694
Change year/year: +1,031

Fayette County

2008 population: 143,289
2009 population: 142,605
Change year/year: -684

Washington County

2008 population: 206,740
2009 population: 207,389
Change year/year: +649

Westmoreland County

2008 population: 362,627
2009 population: 362,251
Change year/year: -376

Pittsburgh MSA

2008 population: 2,355,391
2009 population: 2,354,957
Change year/year: -434

As I suspected, population gains in Allegheny, Butler and Washington Counties were wiped out by population losses in Armstrong, Beaver, Fayette and Westmoreland Counties. To simplify it, if I-79 travels through the county, it gained population. If not, it lost population. The good news is, the core of the metro area is relatively healthy.

[BrianTH]

The rural parts of the Pittsburgh MSA are very likely to keep losing population, and the urbanized part (which includes major suburbs) was actually already gaining population as of the 2000 Census. The rural-to-urban/suburban population shift has been going on throughout American history, and will undoubtedly continue.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by Katiana

It's actually 43,872

Pittsburgh, PA MSA Population and Components of Change

Whoops. But I still agree with BrianTH that those loss estimates may prove to be a bit high. Personally, no one I know personally well has moved out of Pittsburgh (other than joining military).