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If you live in these states (or even if you don't) which members of Congress do you predict will lose their seats when the governors redraw their districts:
Ohio -2
New York -2
Illinois -1
Iowa -1
Louisiana -1
Massachusetts -1
Michigan -1
Missouri -1
New Jersey -1
Pennsylvania -1
In NY its likely one seat from the west and one seat from the NYC area. Tom Reed the newly elected Republican in NY-29 is likely out (NY-29 looked like the goner no matter who won the seat when NY was predicted to lose 1), as far as the NYC area seat its hard to say, if one decides to retire it certainly can add to it.
Another possibility is Slaughter in NY-28, if she decides to retire and my district King in NY-3. Though this one has less of a chance in part because Slaughter and King are both veterans, and Reed is a Freshman, and the fact that taking out NY-28 would make the GOP districts upstate more Democratic which the GOP might not want, and taking out King would make the Democratic districts on LI more Republican.
GOP has the State Senate, Dems have the Assembly and Governor's mansion so it will likely be a Compromise map as it was last time where the Congressional District's were generally a compromise map, State Senate GOP Gerrymander, Assembly Democratic Gerrymander.
The GOP would have FAR more to lose if no agreement can be made and it goes to the courts. Anything the courts draw likely wouldn't be much different than a Compromise map for the Congressional districts. The State Senate and Assembly maps would change with court maps, but the GOP has a slim majority in the Senate, Dems large majority in the Assembly. Anything other than a strong GOP gerrymander in the State Senate the GOP has no chance there (even with a heavy GOP gerrymander they might not even hold the majority. In the Assembly the Dems would lose seats if it was court drawn, but their majority is so massive it really doesn't matter. Any seats that would be lost in the Assembly would be more than made up by the fact they would wind up with a comfortable majority in the Senate.
Cuomo has said that he will veto any plan that draws a gerrymander. I'm skeptical though. Last time NY redistricted, it did a bi-partisan gerrymander that protected all incumbents.
Louise Slaughter almost lost her seat last time, and ended up with a bizarre dumbell-shaped district that stretches the shore from Rochester to Niagara Falls. I don't know if she can avoid losing her seat to redistricting twice in a row despite her popularity in her district.
The districts here in Arizona are some of the most bizarre drawings that i've ever seen. We aren't losing any seats, but i sure as hell wonder how some of these seats were drawn up in the first place.
Cuomo has said that he will veto any plan that draws a gerrymander. I'm skeptical though. Last time NY redistricted, it did a bi-partisan gerrymander that protected all incumbents.
Louise Slaughter almost lost her seat last time, and ended up with a bizarre dumbell-shaped district that stretches the shore from Rochester to Niagara Falls. I don't know if she can avoid losing her seat to redistricting twice in a row despite her popularity in her district.
Slaughter's odd district came about two different ways. A Democratic district was lost in the area (the old NY-29 with John J La Falce) and giving the Republican Higgins (who has since lost the seat) a more GOP district.
The districts here in Arizona are some of the most bizarre drawings that i've ever seen. We aren't losing any seats, but i sure as hell wonder how some of these seats were drawn up in the first place.
Indian Reservations. To split the Navajo and Hopi tribes in two districts.
The top half of of Ohio is a {D} stronghold from border to border and mostly the southern half of the state is {R}. Instead of drawing lines to help their own party since the {R} hold the state House and Senate, they may choose to make 2 {D}s run against each other. The best scenario I think would make Kucinich {Cleveland area} run against Betty Sutton {Akron area}. Those two areas are predominantly {D} and there is no chance at all for a {R} to unseat either of them. This makes good logical sense and they can take it to the bank that the {D}s lose a seat which is the name of the game.
The top half of of Ohio is a {D} stronghold from border to border and mostly the southern half of the state is {R}. Instead of drawing lines to help their own party since the {R} hold the state House and Senate, they may choose to make 2 {D}s run against each other. The best scenario I think would make Kucinich {Cleveland area} run against Betty Sutton {Akron area}. Those two areas are predominantly {D} and there is no chance at all for a {R} to unseat either of them. This makes good logical sense and they can take it to the bank that the {D}s lose a seat which is the name of the game.
Its a possibility, but keep in mind its not as simple as combining two districts since the population has to be even. So you can't completely combine them, a portion of the combined district would need to be pushed elsewhere, part of that would likely be into OH-16 where the GOP which would result in making a Freshman Republican's seat more Democratic.
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