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We are now in the 4th year of this economic slump with no end in sight. Yes the market bottomed in March 2009 and the recession officially ended in June, things have only stabilized since then. They really have not improved. We have hit bottom and basically have stayed there for the past two years. This is no ordinary recession. In the last depression the economy bottomed out in 1933 but there was so sustainable recovery until World War II. I think it's time the government be honest and declare we are in a depression which will take 5-10 years to recover from.
We are now in the 4th year of this economic slump with no end in sight. Yes the market bottomed in March 2009 and the recession officially ended in June, things have only stabilized since then. They really have not improved. We have hit bottom and basically have stayed there for the past two years. This is no ordinary recession. In the last depression the economy bottomed out in 1933 but there was so sustainable recovery until World War II. I think it's time the government be honest and declare we are in a depression which will take 5-10 years to recover from.
Sadly, I think you are probably right. Bad news for many, many Americans and incumbent politicians. If you are right, they will all be sent packing, including Mr. 0. I just don't see the mechanisms for pulling rapidly out of this one. And if it does happen, I will be strongly suspicious that it is yet another bubble.
I think we have done enough deregulation, tax cutting, and cheap credit. What we really need now is massive innovation, at a systemic level. Major new industries or infrastructures are needed, but I haven't seen much beyond the I-PAD, Facebook, and Netflix lately. Until that happens, we will be skidding along the bottom.
I think it's time the government be honest and declare we are in a depression which will take 5-10 years to recover from.
To be "honest", you'd have to preface your objections with the fact that we've lived for 77 years under a state of emergency.
The U.S. government went bankrupt and was re-organized, in the 1930s.
Already covered here: //www.city-data.com/forum/polit...hrive-die.html
Perhaps the bigger story is that the "health" of the overall US economy (in GDP/stock market/corporate profit terms) no longer depends on the health of the employment rate. We may be seeing the unhitching of the welfare of a large segment of Americans from the health of the nation's economic growth.
Those things used to be tied together; a healthy economy implied "full" employment, more or less. Perhaps that is simply no longer the case, and we can have a "healthy" economy with permanent structural unemployment and underemployment in the 20% range, due to ever-increasing productivity by the smaller pool of remaining workers, combined with profits garnered overseas.
Last time it took 5 years before the US Government admitted there was a depression.
1929..crash
1934..."Houston, we have a problem here".
2007 + 5 = 2012
I wasn't aware that it took five years after the crash in 1929 to be seen as a financial disaster of mega-proportions. I'm pretty sure politicians weren't finding support for claiming... "the fundamentals of American economy are strong" even couple of years down the road.
But in reality, I see this current debacle only an effect of the economic health of the nation since the recession of 2001. It simply never recovered.
Perhaps the bigger story is that the "health" of the overall US economy (in GDP/stock market/corporate profit terms) no longer depends on the health of the employment rate. We may be seeing the unhitching of the welfare of a large segment of Americans from the health of the nation's economic growth.
Those things used to be tied together; a healthy economy implied "full" employment, more or less. Perhaps that is simply no longer the case, and we can have a "healthy" economy with permanent structural unemployment and underemployment in the 20% range, due to ever-increasing productivity by the smaller pool of remaining workers, combined with profits garnered overseas.
Globalization did that. Companies can make profits on foreign sales which adds to their bottom line and does nothing for us. Companies can expand their foreign operations and hire local and that expands their business but does nothing for us.
Globalization has caused that split. If you read Annual Reports closely you'll see that US Corporate profits have mostly come from other countries.
But in reality, I see this current debacle only an effect of the economic health of the nation since the recession of 2001. It simply never recovered.
i see this as a cycle that we started around 1980. that's when we started all these policies designed to increase public debt, mortgage debt, student loan debt, credit card debt, et cetera.
credit expansion is like heroin to politicians and bankers. it makes everything wonderful for the time being, increasing the size of the problem, and postponing it until later.
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