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2 weeks now until 1Q11 GDP. Estimates have been deteriorating to well below the 3.1% 4Q10. Feb trade data was horrible. Many of the vulnerabilities we've discussed here - energy prices, mideast unrest, housing, inflation etc. - have come to pass in varying degrees, plus the unforeseeable Japanese disaster. Sub-2% looks like a real possibility, and that would revive the double-dip talk...
2 weeks now until 1Q11 GDP. Estimates have been deteriorating to well below the 3.1% 4Q10. Feb trade data was horrible. Many of the vulnerabilities we've discussed here - energy prices, mideast unrest, housing, inflation etc. - have come to pass in varying degrees, plus the unforeseeable Japanese disaster. Sub-2% looks like a real possibility, and that would revive the double-dip talk...
I would still guess 3.7%, propped up by inventories. Housing suffered in the first quarter, imports surged, and personal consumption may have stagnated with rising energy prices mid-quarter. It will be an interesting report none the less.
I would still guess 3.7%, propped up by inventories. Housing suffered in the first quarter, imports surged, and personal consumption may have stagnated with rising energy prices mid-quarter. It will be an interesting report none the less.
It was lowered to 2.0% from the time I originally posted the old figure to this point. Looks like it is revised frequently, since most of the groups that make projections change their predictions just as often.
It was lowered to 2.0% from the time I originally posted the old figure to this point. Looks like it is revised frequently, since most of the groups that make projections change their predictions just as often.
And now to 1.7% - seems low to me - maybe deflator expectations at work?
What's interesting to me is that the last-minute consensus on 1Q was pretty close to the 1.8% initially reported. But based on today's 1Q revision down to .4%, the so-called experts weren't even close...
OK the unemployment numbers have been revised downward every month from the start of this recession. It would only make sense to do the same things with the economy numbers. our countries credit rating is based in part on those numbers so what do you call it when you get creative with your books?
OK the unemployment numbers have been revised downward every month from the start of this recession. It would only make sense to do the same things with the economy numbers. our countries credit rating is based in part on those numbers so what do you call it when you get creative with your books?
You can certainly fault the govt for being overly "creative" with some of its numbers. The prime example is purely subjective "hedonic" CPI adjustments.
GDP is a somewhat arbitrary conglomeration of many economic indicators, and arrival at a final GDP number is a prolonged and messy process. Some of those indicators aren't even available yet when the first GDP estimate comes out, so they get "estimated". When they do come out, they affect the next GDP revision. Some of the underlying indicators themselves have some estimated components, so they are also subject to revisions that eventually roll into the final GDP.
I assume the people doing the credit rating take into account the "squishiness" of the data they rely on...
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