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I know some of you are convinced that Egypt is going to turn into a theocracy, but I don't think we've seen any kind of concrete proof of that. The Muslim Brotherhood isn't a large part of the electorate, and they seem to have widely varying ranges of belief within their own ranks (not unlike Christians in this country). IF there is a leadership vacuum during the transitional period, or the military goes back on their word and ditches free and fair elections, another dictator could take over, but I don't think anyone has enough information to make that call. It helps that many of the Egyptian military leadership were trained here in the US, and have a close personal relationship with our country and our military leadership.
I absolutely agree with you on this though--Iran is going to be a much different situation than Egypt, and much more difficult for the protesters. I personally don't expect it to end well.
That Egyptian Military was as corrupt as Mubarak! The military officers lived like royalty by siphoning off US military aid.
They have also suspended the Egyptian Constitution, imposed marshal law, and dissolved the Parliament.
Also, the top candidate at the moment in line to win any election is a sworn hater of the USA and Israel.
You're not wrong. Iran is trying to turn the Egyptian protests into support for their theocracy--that Iran inspired the protesters 30 years ago when they got rid of the Shaw--but they won't let their own people actively protest the Iranian theocratic government NOW--what Iran is saying is all spin on the Egyptian situation. I keep saying this, but I think the only reason Clinton is coming out with stronger statements now is because they know something has changed within the internal leadership of Iran since the last round of protests there--if the government there is splintered dramatically, there may be an opportunity for another revolution to succeed that wasn't there a year ago.
That Egyptian Military was as corrupt as Mubarak! The military officers lived like royalty by siphoning off US military aid.
They have also suspended the Egyptian Constitution, imposed marshal law, and dissolved the Parliament.
Also, the top candidate at the moment in line to win any election is a sworn hater of the USA and Israel.
My understanding is that the way their constitution was written, Mubarak still had to be in power for them to officially make changes, so they had to just abandon it. The big question now is if they'll follow through with fair and free elections. They say they're going to, but we won't know until it actually happens. We'll have to see.
Edit--you have to understand that this is what the protesters wanted--they wanted all aspects of the old government out so there wasn't an opportunity for someone from the old regime to try to grab power during the transition. As far as the military goes--everything I've read says the people hated the Police there (Mubarak's forces) and that they were abusive to the people, but that the military was separately controlled and viewed very favorably. Are you talking about the military, or the police?
I hadn't thought about that, but evaluating Iran's military and intelligence structure in comparison to the old Soviet Union is a pretty good way to summarize what the Iranian public deals with on a daily basis.
It is much less linear than what you'd see in a place like Egypt. I sympathize with any Iranian citizen who participates in protesting for change, it likely will be a very difficult (and likely painful) experience.
I'll be very impressed if they actually make significant headway there.
I'd be extremely impressed if they made any significant progress myself, as Iranians aren't going to find the military as supportive as they were in Egypt. I also get the feeling that this is going to draw out for a good long while and the resentment towards the Iranian government is only going to simmer if it is put down.
I wish them the best of luck
On a side note, I have to wonder how this might effect southern Iraq.
Here's a quote from the last paragraph of your own article. I think it's far from a done deal either way. We'll just have to see what happens.
"...A more open political system and a responsive government that ensures its own safety by trimming back the power and privileges of the military could still emerge. And the army may step in as a transitional power and recognize that, as much as it might like to, it cannot return to complete control. The Egyptian military is far more professional and educated than it was in the 1950s, so many officers may recognize the benefits of a democracy. More likely, however, is the culmination of the slow-motion coup and the return of the somewhat austere military authoritarianism of decades past."
My guess would be that the Basij (assuming they still exist) would be turning those folks doing the recruiting into their "handlers", and being compensated for this information.
I'm not so sure that the "disgruntled" military would be much more than just plants, used to try and identify those who are attempting to organize the dissidents. Much in Iran, especially to the man on the street in Tehran, is not what it seems. This doesn't mean they can't develop sufficient legitimate support to boost a meaningful overthrow, but the barrier is much higher than in places such as Egypt.
So you think that the people organizing and leading the opposition could well be on the payroll of the regime there, and they're just trying to root out other members of the opposition to punish them?
It's fairly obvious that we'll have to wait and see.......no one disputes that.
I offered that link as food for thought.
Didn't you find some of the things discussed in it a bit depressing and informative?
I didn't post the link to be argumentative.
I know you didn't.
I know many here are focused on a theocracy taking complete control of Egypt--and I think that's unlikely--but I agree that there's a real possibility it could turn into a military coup instead. I thought your article was pretty to the point, and I agree--it could happen. As we've both said, (and the article says as well) we'll just have to see. It depends on the people in charge. Our country could have gone down that path too, but it didn't because the leadership didn't let it. Hope for the best, but understand the worst could happen as well...
So you think that the people organizing and leading the opposition could well be on the payroll of the regime there, and they're just trying to root out other members of the opposition to punish them?
Partially, certainly not most of them, but enough to be effectively disruptive to their efforts.
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