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Old 02-20-2011, 02:04 PM
 
2,490 posts, read 3,818,634 times
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The concept of the book and their ideas are a bit difficult to detail and explain. And it also may take some time to completely understand the author's concepts as well. Also, this book was written in 1991 and released in 1992.

So, I'll try my best.

There are 4 eras within each cycle of a time period, with each era lasting approximately 15-30 years. While every cycle is about 80-100 years long.

The 1st era called a "High." Highs tends to be a period of steady, economic growth. Where birth rates are high, immigration levels are low and gender roles are highly distinguished. And rates of drug usage is at its lowest. Society overall is very conformist and individuality is discouraged. Strong desire to build and wars may occur but there is little enthusiasm for any wars.

The last two time this cycle happened was after the Civil War in the 1860s lasting until the 1880s and again after WWII in 1945, peaking in the 1950s and ending with the assassination of JFK in 1963.

The 2nd era is titled an Awakening Era. During this time, the generation of babies born during the High protest against the values of the first era of which they were born and raised in. Crime rates, drug usage and immigration increases, while birth rates fall. Emphasis on gender roles lessens their importance and the economy loses becomes increasingly unstable.

This last happened during the 1960s up until the early 80s after JFK was assassinated as the Baby Boomers came of age.

For the 3rd era, this era is called The Unraveling. Crime rates are usually high, gender roles are at its lowest points in society and birth rates are low as well. Society overall cools down from the second era and embraces the new ideals that were created from the second era as well.

This happened from the early 80s, probably when Reagan was elected president to the time of the 9/11 attack.

Now for the 4th era, the era we're currently in and is called "Crisis." Crimes rates fall, which is what is happening in some parts of the country, drug usage declines, immigration falls (Arizona law) and there is economic decline (occurring since 2007/08). And wars are also fought with fury and energy (War on Terrorism). There is increasingly intolerance for risky behavior and actions (Zero tolerance rules and school dress codes/uniform.)

So, if the past holds true, we are probably at least half way through this 4th era we are in and will enter the 1st era again in the late 2010s to the early 2020s.


As for generations of people born...

G.Is.-born from 1901-1924, were very civic, many joined children's group (Boy's scouts, girls scouts) while young, fought in WWII and the first half of the G.Is. led to the social changes of the 1920s, while the second half of G.Is. led to the increasing conservative and early marriages of the 1940s and 1950s
Silents- born from 1925-1942, grew up in the Great Depression, WWII, came of age in the 1st era during the 50s, most married and had children young. Their women stayed home while their men worked.
Boomers- 1942-1961, liberal, protested against Vietnam War, fought for equal rights for women, delayed marriage and parenthood, many did drugs and had many sexual partners during the 60s and 70s love era
Xers/13ers- 1961-1981, more family centered, are over protective parents, more pessimistic compared to the Boomers
Millenniums- 1981-2001, more like the G.I.s and the Boomers. Liberal, less risk-taking (according to statistics), contributing to falling teenage birth rate (except for 2006-08 increase), small but growing number are abstaining until marriage, more pro-life about abortion, increasingly political
Homelanders- 2001-20??, predicted to be like the Silents in being conservative, cautious and conformist



What do you guys think?

Read more about it...http://www.timepage.org/time.html
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Old 02-20-2011, 02:21 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
6,849 posts, read 7,512,177 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 90sman View Post
The concept of the book and their ideas are a bit difficult to detail and explain. And it also may take some time to completely understand the author's concepts as well. Also, this book was written in 1991 and released in 1992.

So, I'll try my best.

There are 4 eras within each cycle of a time period, with each era lasting approximately 15-30 years. While every cycle is about 80-100 years long.

The 1st era called a "High." Highs tends to be a period of steady, economic growth. Where birth rates are high, immigration levels are low and gender roles are highly distinguished. And rates of drug usage is at its lowest. Society overall is very conformist and individuality is discouraged. Strong desire to build and wars may occur but there is little enthusiasm for any wars.

The last two time this cycle happened was after the Civil War in the 1860s lasting until the 1880s and again after WWII in 1945, peaking in the 1950s and ending with the assassination of JFK in 1963.

The 2nd cycle is titled an Awakening Era. During this time, the generation of babies born during the High protest against the values of the first cycle of which they were born and raised in. Crime rates, drug usage and immigration increases, while birth rates fall. Emphasis on gender roles lessens their importance and the economy loses becomes increasingly unstable.

This last happened during the 1960s up until the early 80s after JFK was assassinated as the Baby Boomers came of age.

For the 3rd era, this era is called The Unraveling. Crime rates are usually high, gender roles are at its lowest points in society and birth rates are low as well. Society overall cools down from the second era and embraces the new ideals that were created from the second era as well.

This happened from the early 80s, probably when Reagan was elected president to the time of the 9/11 attack.

Now for the 4th era, the cycle we're currently in and is called "Crisis." Crimes rates fall, which is what is happening in some parts of the country, drug usage declines, immigration falls (Arizona law) and there is economic decline (occurring since 2007/08). And wars are also fought with fury and energy (War on Terrorism). There is increasingly intolerance for risky behavior and actions (Zero tolerance rules and school dress codes/uniform.)

So, if the past holds true, we are probably at least half way through this 4th era we are in and will enter the 1st era again in the late 2010s to the early 2020s.


As for generations of people born...

G.Is.-born from 1901-1924, were very civic, many joined children's group (Boy's scouts, girls scouts) while young, fought in WWII and the first half of the G.Is. led to the social changes of the 1920s, while the second half of G.Is. led to the increasing conservative and early marriages of the 1940s and 1950s
Silents- born from 1925-1942, grew up in the Great Depression, WWII, came of age in the 1st era during the 50s, most married and had children young. Their women stayed home while their men worked.
Boomers- 1942-1961, liberal, protested against Vietnam War, fought for equal rights for women, delayed marriage and parenthood, many did drugs and had many sexual partners during the 60s and 70s love era
Xers/13ers- 1961-1981, more family centered, are over protective parents, more pessimistic compared to the Boomers
Millenniums- 1981-2001, more like the G.I.s and the Boomers. Liberal, less risk-taking (according to statistics), contributing to falling teenage birth rate (except for 2006-08 increase), small but growing number are abstaining until marriage, more pro-life about abortion, increasingly political
Homelanders- 2001-20??, predicted to be like the Silents in being conservative, cautious and conformist



What do you guys think?

Read more about it...American Generations - Cycles in U.S. History
Great stuff, I have been a fan of their work since the 90's. Al Gore once gave a copy of Generations to every member of congress and Newt Gingrich is a big fan also.

Their 1997 follow-up book Fourth Turning, chronicalling the transition into the crisis era, is also great. It now reads like a newspaper.
Sadly Bill Struass passed away a few years ago but luckily they were able to collaborate in several other books and writings.

You will get people who call it astrology etc. basically they lack the understanding of personality types and how people react to situations and events in life. The fact that we cycle should not be a surprise to anyone.
Here are a few more resources, including a Fourth turning site and Life Course which is Howe’s consultant business, lot of good research on there.

So do you think we are in 4T? I sure do, starting about 2008.

Lifecourse Associates: Home

The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe

A friend of mine has a lot of generational theory on his site, he has been working with Neil on some possible collaboration.

Generations - Jim Goulding
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Old 02-20-2011, 05:40 PM
 
Location: On the "Left Coast", somewhere in "the Land of Fruits & Nuts"
8,367 posts, read 8,764,401 times
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Yes, astrology has noted much the same "generational" cycles, which correspond to the cycles of Saturn, plus the "outer planets" (Pluto, Neptune, Uranus). Although if someone doesn't "buy into" astrology, that's fine, but it is at least some sort of a coherent "system", that's also been around a long time now. Meaning it offers at least as legitimate an explanation as someone simply saying "but now I see these repeating patterns"!

Or worse, using their "cycles" as sufficient reason to cavalierly dismiss everyone else's observations, because "they lack the understanding of personality types and how people react to situations and events in life!"

The technical term for that type of reasoning is called a "solipsism"... believing something is so, just because you think it is!

BTW, the Hindus (with their Yuga cycles), and both the Enneagram and the Sun Spot folks have all observed similar "patterns", each along with their own explanations.
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Old 02-20-2011, 05:48 PM
 
Location: Neither here nor there
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What goes around comes around......even with society as a whole.

Whatever the explanation--astrology, cycles, karmic destiny--history has a way of repeating itself.
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Old 02-20-2011, 06:02 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
6,849 posts, read 7,512,177 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mateo45 View Post
Yes, astrology has noted much the same "generational" cycles, which correspond to the cycles of Saturn, plus the "outer planets" (Pluto, Neptune, Uranus). Although if someone doesn't "buy into" astrology, that's fine, but it is at least some sort of a coherent "system", that's also been around a long time now. Meaning it offers at least as legitimate an explanation as someone simply saying "but now I see these repeating patterns"!

Or worse, using their "cycles" as sufficient reason to cavalierly dismiss everyone else's observations, because "they lack the understanding of personality types and how people react to situations and events in life!"

The technical term for that type of reasoning is called a "solipsism"... believing something is so, just because you think it is!

BTW, the Hindus (with their Yuga cycles), and both the Enneagram and the Sun Spot folks have all observed similar "patterns", each along with their own explanations.
I think you misunderstood my point. There are reviews that talk about how this theory is the equivalent of astrology (in a negative way). My point is that cycles are based more on how people react to situations than they are some unknown force.

Most people who say it is a meaningless and random don’t look at how people react, they just dismiss it as a coincidence.
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Old 02-20-2011, 06:07 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 74,000,351 times
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Yes I think we're in a 4th turning.
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Old 02-20-2011, 06:09 PM
 
Location: On the "Left Coast", somewhere in "the Land of Fruits & Nuts"
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Thanks, understood and that's fine, although my point is that hopefully we can agree these are all basically just "belief systems", with none anymore "entitled" to legitimacy than another. Just because the "mechanism" on some "other" systems may unclear (so far), doesn't mean they're any less valid (or accurate).
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Old 02-20-2011, 06:18 PM
Status: "Happy New Year!" (set 1 day ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
88,562 posts, read 104,881,764 times
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Silents: "Coming of Age" is usually considered to occur somewhere around 18-21, making someone born in 1925 come of age in 1943-46, not the 1950s, when they would alreay be at least 25 years old. It's true that a lot of people from that birth cohort married early; by 25 many of them had 2-3 kids already. Also, no one born in 1942 grew up during the depression. That was more for people born in the 1920s.

Boomers: The Baby Boomer generation is most generally considered those born 1946-1964. It would be hard to have a post-war baby boom when the war was still going on, as it was in 1942.
I never heard of 1960 as the cut-off. The absolute number of births reached its peak in 1957, I believe, but it was only after 1964 that the total number of births in the US was less than 4 million.

Baby boomer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The United States Census Bureau considers a baby boomer to be someone born during the demographic birth boom between 1946 and 1964.[9] The Census Bureau is not involved in defining cultural generations.

Landon Jones, who coined the term "baby boomer" in his book Great Expectations: America and the Baby Boom Generation, defined the span of the baby-boom generation as extending from 1946 to 1964, when annual births declined below 4,000,000.


I'm not much for these prediction books; they're usually wrong b/c things happen that they couldn't anticpate. "The Population Bomb" for example, did not consider the slowing of birth rates that happened in the industrialized world in the last 20 years or so.
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Old 02-20-2011, 07:01 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
6,849 posts, read 7,512,177 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mateo45 View Post
Thanks, understood and that's fine, although my point is that hopefully we can agree these are all basically just "belief systems", with none anymore "entitled" to legitimacy than another. Just because the "mechanism" on some "other" systems may unclear (so far), doesn't mean they're any less valid (or accurate).
Of course, I look at this more of a way to realize that just because "those kids" are not like us, does not mean they are wrong. People with similar life experience tend to live their lives differently as compared to those who had different life experience.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Katiana View Post
Silents: "Coming of Age" is usually considered to occur somewhere around 18-21, making someone born in 1925 come of age in 1943-46, not the 1950s, when they would alreay be at least 25 years old. It's true that a lot of people from that birth cohort married early; by 25 many of them had 2-3 kids already. Also, no one born in 1942 grew up during the depression. That was more for people born in the 1920s.

Boomers: The Baby Boomer generation is most generally considered those born 1946-1964. It would be hard to have a post-war baby boom when the war was still going on, as it was in 1942.
I never heard of 1960 as the cut-off. The absolute number of births reached its peak in 1957, I believe, but it was only after 1964 that the total number of births in the US was less than 4 million.

Baby boomer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The United States Census Bureau considers a baby boomer to be someone born during the demographic birth boom between 1946 and 1964.[9] The Census Bureau is not involved in defining cultural generations.

Landon Jones, who coined the term "baby boomer" in his book Great Expectations: America and the Baby Boom Generation, defined the span of the baby-boom generation as extending from 1946 to 1964, when annual births declined below 4,000,000.

I'm not much for these prediction books; they're usually wrong b/c things happen that they couldn't anticpate. "The Population Bomb" for example, did not consider the slowing of birth rates that happened in the industrialized world in the last 20 years or so.
You are talking birth demographics; this is about peer personalities and the relation to other generations and your times. This is why they use the term "boomers" as opposed to Baby Boom. The birth boom was as you state, true the only reason 64 was used as a cutoff is because it was the last year of 4 million plus births.

Look at a "typical" 1943 birth "boomer", they have more in common with the younger boomers than they do their silent’s. My mother in law is a prime example, born in 43 she was a hippie in the 60's saw all the rock bands, had little to do with the music and culture of the silent’s.


Same as a 64 birth, they are more like the 80’s generation than they are to someone born in 54 or 55. A good example, Flea from the Red Hot Chili Peppers, born 1962. He is a poster child for Gen-X, not the boomers. His first wave of Xers drove the trends of Gen-X for decades.

This is not really a prediction book but a history book; it shows history through the eyes of each age bracket, not just the 50 year old guys’ version. They talk how children were treated and acted during each major era either during a time of spiritual awakening or crisis. Then they work their way up the age ladder.

The predictions are more about how people and leaders will interact, not on what will happen. As I said the Fourth Turning does show some “predictions”, more about how each generation will react to a crisis and so far it has been spot on.
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Old 07-09-2013, 01:50 AM
 
Location: Shreveport, LA
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So, in the 2020's the economy will be coming back?
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