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Old 07-14-2011, 06:28 PM
 
Location: Dallas
31,290 posts, read 20,728,778 times
Reputation: 9325

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Quote:
Originally Posted by shane... View Post
Oh come off it. That silly xenophobia is the exact reason why we should have greater political integration in the EU.
The wealthier countries have huge benefits from being in a currency union with weaker economies.
Have you any idea what caused this crisis? Reckless lending from banks all over Europe, including Germany, France and the UK.

You are delusional. Banks did not cause Greeks to retire early and live off the government.
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Old 07-14-2011, 06:45 PM
 
166 posts, read 229,795 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roadking2003 View Post
You are delusional. Banks did not cause Greeks to retire early and live off the government.
Yeah, the major banks have nothing to do with the European financial crisis.

Greek corruption is one aspect of the crisis there. But the European crisis is far bigger than just Greece. You think the Greeks taking early retirement and avoiding tax is causing the problems in Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy and Belgium?

Such a view is grounded in fantasy.
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Old 07-14-2011, 07:02 PM
 
Location: Dallas
31,290 posts, read 20,728,778 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shane... View Post
... You think the Greeks taking early retirement and avoiding tax is causing the problems in Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy and Belgium?

Such a view is grounded in fantasy.

No. People not working caused the Greek crisis. Same in the other countries.

When the ratio of producers to those dependent on government (leeches, etc) gets too low, you have a crisis.

It's really quite simple.
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Old 07-14-2011, 07:26 PM
 
25,021 posts, read 27,919,738 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roadking2003 View Post
No. People not working caused the Greek crisis. Same in the other countries.

When the ratio of producers to those dependent on government (leeches, etc) gets too low, you have a crisis.

It's really quite simple.
Wrong. What caused the Greek crisis is the same thing that's going to happen here. The banks and their out of control lending that will bring down the house of cards. The banks in the U.S. are in debt around $1.5 quadrillion in derivatives. And it's European derivatives that's wreaking havoc across Europe. You can have all the austerity you want, but those economies are going to implode anyway even if they raise taxes 100% and cut spending by 100%
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Old 07-14-2011, 07:32 PM
 
166 posts, read 229,795 times
Reputation: 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roadking2003 View Post
No. People not working caused the Greek crisis. Same in the other countries.

When the ratio of producers to those dependent on government (leeches, etc) gets too low, you have a crisis.

It's really quite simple.
What are you talking about?

The Irish had an incredibly low unemployment rate.

You honestly think that people not working is the main cause of the crisis?

I suggest you pick up a few European newspapers because everyone over here knows the reasons for this crisis.

Whatever soundbites you are listening to in the US are fact-free.
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Old 07-14-2011, 07:38 PM
 
2,635 posts, read 3,510,115 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roadking2003 View Post
No. People not working caused the Greek crisis. Same in the other countries.

When the ratio of producers to those dependent on government (leeches, etc) gets too low, you have a crisis.

It's really quite simple.
You got it half right. Yes, Greece created the problem by creating a welfare net that discouraged work and creating business while feeding corruption. Banks, however, enabled this problem by lending the Greek government money to pay for the scheme. If the banks would have said no more loans, then the Greeks would have had to cut off the gravy train.
The right thing to do would be to kick the Greeks out of the Euro zone, then let the banks face the moral hazard of lending money to a perpetual delinquent.

If the U.S. defaults on its debts, then the Euro will become the world's new benchmark currency. The value of the dollar will plummet as banks and investors will try to dump their dollars in exchange for a more stable currencies. Simultaneously billions of dollars in U.S. bonds will flood the market as investors will try to distance themselves from a formerly 'safe' investment. If the Chinese and Russians dump their holdings, the U.S. economy will become a smoking crater. The Fed will need to offer double-digit interest rates to draw back spooked investors, forcing American banks to charge high interest rates to borrowers. Stagflation will return with a vengeance; unemployment will shoot to +20%, and the Great Recession will become the Great Depression II.

In all this, investors will flock to stronger currencies. The Euro will become stronger, with the British Pound and Russian Ruble riding its coattails. The Brazilian Real, Indian Rupee, and Mexican Peso will also 'benefit'. This would also be an opportune time for the Chinese to convert the Yuan into an open currency. The American Era will end.
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Old 07-14-2011, 07:45 PM
 
166 posts, read 229,795 times
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SJ4, do you think the US will default?

Surely they will have to come to some agreement before the deadline? A default would be catastrophic for everyone.
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Old 07-14-2011, 08:04 PM
 
2,635 posts, read 3,510,115 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shane... View Post
SJ4, do you think the US will default?

Surely they will have to come to some agreement before the deadline? A default would be catastrophic for everyone.
For the Republicans, one quiet phone call from Wall Street silences 100,000 Tea-Partiers. The Tea Party may bring the votes, but Wall Street makes no doubt who controls the GOP. The GOP's primary objective is preserving the Bush tax cuts. From Wall Street's perspective, raising the debt limit is good for investors and they could care less about spending. The problem is how do they do this without alienating the Tea Party.

If the Tea Parties launch their own candidates in the 2012 election, this will split the Right and let the Democrats take back seats lost in 2010. Hence you'll see a lot of posturing and noise, but we'll see a limited deal announced on 21 July. Both sides will declare victory, the Tea Party will fume, but hopefully (for the GOP) fall back in line. McConnell's proposal is a trial balloon to prime the Tea Party for the inevitable deal.
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Old 07-14-2011, 11:15 PM
 
Location: Fairfax County, VA
3,718 posts, read 5,693,762 times
Reputation: 1480
This is a serious question;

What is wrong with the Euro? Thanks
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Old 07-14-2011, 11:27 PM
 
Location: Sarasota, Florida
15,395 posts, read 22,515,219 times
Reputation: 11134
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roadking2003 View Post
How long will it be before the more responsible countries like Germany decide that they are fed up with bailing out the three PIGs?

I predict that the "Euro experiment" will crumble within this decade.
I disagree and IMO...the Euro will increasingly become the currency of choice over the dollar and the European Union will remain essentially intact.

Guess we'll both know before 2020 won't we?

Euro - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfxf07t.pdf

http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14350...aper_14350.pdf


The euro in the world - ECFIN - European Commission

BBC NEWS | Business | Market Data | Currencies | Euro EUR v US Dollar USD

Euro Strength Sustained in Widest Libor Gap Since 2009 as Greek Vote Looms - Bloomberg

http://faculty.london.edu/rportes/EParticle.pdf
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