Allan Litchman, Professor Who Got 7-For-7 at Predicting Presidential Elections, Predicts 2012 Obama Victory!!!! (Reagan, polls)
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I think it will be very very very difficult for Obama to be re-elected. The economy has not improved enough and the unemployment figures are just too high.
People vote their pocketbooks. If the economy and jobs situation were better I think the situation would be different. I would not personally place a wager on Obama's re-election.
I don't think the Republicans will be foolish enough to pick Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, or Rick Santorum ... they do not have credibility; I do think the GOP will pick a candidate that is very moderate and attractive.
On the other hand, whoever wins it will be with only a very small majority. If Republicans are hoping for some kind of sweeping landslide, they should forget it - Obama will still win the populous states like California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, etc. Furthermore if Obama is defeated, the Democrats might pick up seats in the House and still control the Senate.
It's just a hunch on my part. I can not predict the future. Anything could happen.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TempesT68
Not a chance. The economy was on a full blown nosedive and Obama was able to at least stabilize the massacre the republicans and Bush did to the economy. The american people gave the tea party and the right wingers another chance in 2010, but they have proven again they are hell bent on destroying the country and could care less about the deficit or job creation, just bankrolling the rich. Their horrific approval numbers show this loud and clear.
People vote for many reasons. The economy, their stances on social issues, what religion they are,..Even trivial things like they "look" like they would make a good president, the way they are dressed etc,..
Don't underestimate the stupidity of the right. Bachmann's ship is sinking and if she does drop, I bet there is a good chance Palin will come into her spot. The GOP has gone so incredibly far to the right, they will throw their support behind nutcases like Bachmann. A moderate republican will not stand a chance as they will be bashed as a RINO such as Romney from the extremists, plus with how Obama is for the most part a center/right republican, they are both pretty much the same person.
The only person that has any chance of beating Obama is Paul, but there is no way the right wing establishment would ever let that happen. Otherwise it will be a solid Obama win.
Always good for a laugh.
"The american people gave the tea party and the right wingers another chance in 2010, but they have proven again they are hell bent on destroying the country and could care less about the deficit or job creation, just bankrolling the rich."
$4 trillion in new debt and 9.1% unemployment.
Try to sell that.
Obama had two full years of Carte Blanche. He did exactly what he wanted to do and it all failed. It failed because his actions were based on flawed economic theory and radical left-wing ideology. Keynesian stimulus programs never work in the real world and this one was no exception.
He tried.
He failed.
He's too stupid and stubborn to admit it.
On election day, voters will conclude he has learned nothing from his mistakes.
If Obama gets in it is meant to be. Our country will be broke and the world will suffer economic collapse and we will probably wind up with a one currency system .
Socialism here we come. One world government next. Our constitution will take a back seat and freedom as we know it will die.
His model may be valid, but the way he scores it is highly questionable...
1) Incumbent party picks up seats in preceding mid-term. Point Republicans.
2) There is no serious challenger for the incumbent party nomination. Point Obama.
3) The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Point Obama.
4) There is no significant third party challenger. Point Obama.
5) The economy is not in a recession during the election campaign. Push (Lichtman declares this one “undecided.”)
With 9.1% unemployment, technically not being in recession won't matter because jobs are unavailable to people who want them. There is no good economic news and there won't be because the dollar is too weak for recovery to take place.
6) Real per capita economic growth during the past term is at least equal to mean growth during the previous two terms. Point Republicans.
7) The incumbent administration pushes through major national policy changes. Point Obama.
These policies are what gave us the largest Congressional seat change in seventy years. Were these reforms what voters wanted, he could boast of them in the campaign, but they weren't and he can't. In fact, he'll get beat over the head with the failed stimulus and Obamacare by the GOP. This supposed positive is very negative.
8) There is no sustained social unrest during the previous term. Point Obama.
What was the Tea Party Movement?
9) The incumbent administration has no major scandals. Point Obama.
10) The incumbent administration suffers no major foreign/military affairs failure. Point Obama.
Once again, we have an issue that should be one Obama can brag about on the campaign trail, but he really can't even mention it because he ran against the Iraq War then failed to follow through with an accelerated withdrawal, expanded the Afghan War and started a new war with Libya. His flip-flops on GITMO, civilian trials for terrorists, rendition and the like will endear him to no one on the left and make voters believe his word is worthless.
11) The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign/military affairs. Point Obama.
Like what?
12) The incumbent party candidate is charismatic. Point Republicans.
13) The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Point Obama.
If Obama gets in it is meant to be. Our country will be broke and the world will suffer economic collapse and we will probably wind up with a one currency system .
Socialism here we come. One world government next. Our constitution will take a back seat and freedom as we know it will die.
AAAAGGGGGHHHHH WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
no mortal can predict the future. we will see what happens in 2012.
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