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Old 09-09-2011, 03:35 PM
 
Location: Portland, OR
8,802 posts, read 8,866,810 times
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Hellenic Republic (CGGB1U5:IND) Index Performance - Bloomberg

2,824 basis points!!!!

Does anyone more experienced know how the CDS spread relates to probability for default?
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Old 09-09-2011, 03:38 PM
 
Location: the very edge of the continent
88,614 posts, read 44,334,570 times
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Default likely over the weekend. Europe will be dragged down with it. A LOT of investors' money has fled Europe for Japan. It does NOT look good folks.
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Old 09-09-2011, 03:40 PM
 
Location: Portland, OR
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InformedConsent View Post
Default likely over the weekend. Europe will be dragged down with it. A LOT of investors' money has fled Europe for Japan. It does NOT look good folks.
Yields on their bonds are at 20% too.
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Old 09-09-2011, 03:46 PM
 
Location: Maryland
18,630 posts, read 19,346,156 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VTHokieFan View Post
Hellenic Republic (CGGB1U5:IND) Index Performance - Bloomberg

2,824 basis points!!!!

Does anyone more experienced know how the CDS spread relates to probability for default?
You need the recovery rate to figure out the probability of default but a spread like that can't be good.
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Old 09-09-2011, 03:46 PM
 
Location: Sinking in the Great Salt Lake
13,139 posts, read 22,724,548 times
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Probability of Greek default? 100%
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Old 09-09-2011, 03:48 PM
 
Location: the very edge of the continent
88,614 posts, read 44,334,570 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VTHokieFan View Post
Yields on their bonds are at 20% too.
And yet that's perceived as the "safe haven." What does that tell you?
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Old 09-09-2011, 03:48 PM
 
19,226 posts, read 15,266,315 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InformedConsent View Post
Default likely over the weekend. Europe will be dragged down with it. A LOT of investors' money has fled Europe for Japan. It does NOT look good folks.
Money has gone nuclear, man.
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Old 09-09-2011, 03:51 PM
 
Location: Maryland
18,630 posts, read 19,346,156 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InformedConsent View Post
Default likely over the weekend. Europe will be dragged down with it. A LOT of investors' money has fled Europe for Japan. It does NOT look good folks.
Much of the money is still in Europe just concentrated in one small Alpine country though.
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Old 09-09-2011, 03:52 PM
 
Location: Maryland
18,630 posts, read 19,346,156 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chango View Post
Probability of Greek default? 100%
Not so fast, German taxpayers have not been completely milked yet.
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Old 09-09-2011, 03:54 PM
 
Location: Portland, OR
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardA View Post
Not so fast, German taxpayers have not been completely milked yet.
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